TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
They are sure making it easy for Democrats to win.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/are-they-trying-to-lose/57332/
I feel cheated because he did not attack cat gentlemen
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/its-official-jd-vance-is-insane/57351/
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
RUSSIAN GRAND STRATEGY BUT NO EFFECTIVE CAPABILITY
Russia has in some ways learned to plan for wider, interlinked operational effect along the entire front. There is no doubt that they coordinated their northern front attacks earlier this year from Kupiansk to Kremina, going so far as to reorganise the military command structure to eliminate internal friction. Even so, the operation failed.
The Pokorovsk-Tortesk-Chasiv Yar operation is another example of what they are trying to do, using a strategic plan to create the conditions for tactical gains.
The new offensive in the south against Vuhledar suggests another larger plan.
The problem with all of these plans is first the maxim, ‘that no plan survives contact with the enemy’. They never do, you cannot predict accuracy or success.
The biggest problem is that Russian grand strategy doesn’t have the manpower with the capabilities to deliver it, the machinery to effectively support it on such a scale, or an officer caste that was educated and experienced in operating in new ways.
The plans may be entirely reasonable from a General Staff perspective, but when the the delivery of these objectives is handed to a bunch of barely trained and under equipped infantry units that can’t possibly execute such complex plans or manoeuvres, who are poorly supplied and lack morale, then the reality is, despite the effort and the organisation, the forces conducting the operation will not survive contact with their enemy.
Unquestionably Russia has a strategic approach to the war, more than at any time since they started it, but for the most part, actually seeing it materialise is something else completely.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
FRONTLINE FAILURES COMPOUND RETREATS
There’s no point in glossing over the news from the front.
We are seeing Russian success against Ukrainian forces that they pick on precisely because they know they have some kind of weakness.
One unit was nearly routed because it ‘had not been trained to retreat properly’. That led to an almost 6km hole in the frontline the Russians have quickly advanced through.
Inexperienced units have been getting in the others way when it comes to drone operations and failing to coordinate their actions. Again, exploited by the Russians.
‘Fire brigade’ units like the 47th found themselves unable to stop a Russian advance because ‘the infantry on our side had disappeared’. Again, lack of training and preparedness in the infantry units.
All across the front, reported by Ukrainian journalists and bloggers, we see Russian units deliberately identifying the lowest experienced Ukrainian units and going up against them in force. Either they work this out from observation of they have outstanding intelligence on what the Ukrainian deployment and unit quality assessment is telling commanders.
The scale of Russian attacks is wide and across the entire front. They make small gains but they make a lot of small gains. Far too many.
Russian equipment losses are terrible, in one attack 11 tanks and 36 BMP’s went up against the Ukrainians and all were destroyed - but it takes experienced troops to withstand that kind of attack such as this in Novomikhailivka.
This is a lot of vehicles for the Russians to use. They have stockpiled as much as they can and they lose it at an extraordinarily high pace. But they do, in the end take more land in most circumstances.
The frontline situation is grave, there’s no doubt about that. It isn’t collapsing, but the retreats are getting to be almost continuous and serious over time.
Ukraine needs men and more equipment. My concern is that one thing will break that can’t be stopped - the Russians are betting on it. It hasn’t happened - yet.
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
THE FAB-3000
Few bombs of a conventional nature have been put into serial production and caused so many problems for those on the receiving end.
The FAB-3000 is a 3,000kg bomb with a 1,600kg yield of explosives.
For those who prefer imperial/US measurements that’s 6,600lbs and 3,500lbs respectively.
These have a blast fragment radius of 286m give or take a few meters - or 900ft.
The average crater depth is around 4m or 13ft. The diameter around 20m or 66ft.
The type is carried by an SU-34 in its centreline mount and the original version had a range of 50-60km, but wasn’t entirely accurate, although its blast wave was more than adequate to make up for it.
The bomb is carried upside down, then dropped and rolls over as its wings and tail section deploy. At this point the control system or UMPK, uses GLONASS to guide it to the target.
Since its initial introduction the Russians have improved the UMPK control system, strengthening the wings and tail section, and in doing so increased the range to 65-70km - making the launching aircraft safer as it tries to stay out of the range of Patriot systems.
The downsides of this bomb is it’s actually more visible to radar - it’s quite large after all, but it lacks any infra red signal to utilise many of the anti-air systems that could shoot it down.
It’s also quite slow and requires the launching aircraft to approach from a high altitude to give the benefit of range because of its weight.
At present there is no means of stopping these weapons and around 300 are being dropped monthly in addition to the smaller versions of the bomb.
The only solution is anti-air systems getting at the launching aircraft, and the arrival of F-16 along with more Patriot batteries will hopefully start to redress the imbalance.
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
RUSSIAN INCOMPETENCE STRIKES AGAIN
Russian forces have long suffered from an inability to communicate properly between ground units and with air forces.
Coordinated operations are often nonexistent. Partly that’s down to the lack of experience in the field, poor or no radio equipment, inexperienced staff officers and a lack of NCO grades in the field to correct mistakes and retain discipline when something goes wrong. Russian forces don’t work well with initiative, expecting to be directed from a distance.
Another prime example of this occurred at Hybolke in the western Kharkiv sector.
The Ukrainian forces here have managed to push their way back into the village despite Russian attempts to stop them.
It has been something of a swings and roundabouts campaign, with both sides gaining and loosing territory. This time it was Ukraine’s turn to push deep into the village.
The Ukrainians recaptured an agricultural centre and the land around it. On the other side of the village at night, they use their superior night vision and armoured vehicles to press Russian forces and find weaknesses.
The Russians have moved the reconstituted 155th Naval Infantry from the southern front- it was largely wiped out at Vuhledar at least twice - to the area, and sends in small groups through tree lines, mostly on motorbikes and ATV’s, to carry out drone operations.
However these haven’t stopped the Ukrainians from attacking and they have even used glide bombs dropped from Ukrainian air force Su-27’s on stubborn areas of resistance. This lead to a ‘semi-encirclement’ of the village.
The Russians themselves are torn over the whole Kharkiv offensive, which is recognised as a failure not that anyone will say the word. Having lost some 70,000 troops here in three months and having nothing much left to do anything but dig in (if Ukrainian drones will give them the chance), it’s largely seen as a lost cause, but nobody at the top will recognise it.
In the centre of the western sector, Russian units were attempting to rotate fresh troops into the line, only for poor organisation and communications to end up in a pitched battle during the night against each other, right in front of Ukrainian observers.
Not wanting to miss the opportunity to make things worse, the Ukrainians attacked the supply and evacuation trucks for both units, convincing each of the Russian forces they were fighting Ukrainians, when in fact they were attacking themselves. Just to make it worse the Ukrainians helped both sides do maximum damage to each other by lobbing in mortars and FPV drones for added measure.
It took over three hours before the Russians realised they were fighting their own side.
This graveyard of the Kharkiv front is a charade and a resource sucking waste of Russian forces - the military seem to know this. But the political decision has been made that a 20-40km ‘buffer zone’ must be established come what may. Only yesterday the Kremlin officially confirmed its position, stating operations would continue until this was achieved.
With what? How? In three months they have barely moved, lost over 7 brigades worth of manpower and equipment and are on the defensive. As a result yet more infantry are being assembled to fight in the area and attempt to reverse the situation. Politicians can be the death of armies.
Overall the Ukrainians have the situation contained and seem to be nearly ready to make a move on a larger scale. However they will face yet more poorly trained contract troops thrown into the line to bolster the Russian defence - and the Russians will use their attack to defend tactics regardless of losses. It’s far from over yet.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
CONTINUES
Two hundred different negotiating sessions have been held. Not once did Russia even make a sensible or near compromising suggestion. They don’t see any difference between peace talks and war - talks are about defeating your enemy to them, not ending a war that’s gone horribly awry. There is no Russian concept for accepting peace unless it’s clear they won. They haven’t and they won’t so there can’t be a peace Putin’s regime can accept.
So what do we do about it? The only thing we can and should have done from the start. We support Ukraine with money, weapons, training and whatever else they need. We start to stand up ever more firmly to Russian provocations, we look to defend Ukrainian citizens and cities - shoot down attacking missiles, risk a no-fly zone in the west of the country. Russia will hate it, but it will live with it. Just as it has done as we crossed all of its other red lines. Because it has no more it can do about it than what it’s already doing.
It tries to attack us through sabotage, assassination plans, cyber espionage, and military intimidation, right now. What more can it do without starting a war it cannot possibly win?
Russia cannot be allowed peace on its terms and nobody in their right mind would let it have it. Because peace today on Russian terms is war tomorrow on Russian terms.
We all know it. That’s why Ukraine must win. For themselves and all of us. Peace for now remains a chimera.
CONTINUES
Two hundred different negotiating sessions have been held. Not once did Russia even make a sensible or near compromising suggestion. They don’t see any difference between peace talks and war - talks are about defeating your enemy to them, not ending a war that’s gone horribly awry. There is no Russian concept for accepting peace unless it’s clear they won. They haven’t and they won’t so there can’t be a peace Putin’s regime can accept.
So what do we do about it? The only thing we can and should have done from the start. We support Ukraine with money, weapons, training and whatever else they need. We start to stand up ever more firmly to Russian provocations, we look to defend Ukrainian citizens and cities - shoot down attacking missiles, risk a no-fly zone in the west of the country. Russia will hate it, but it will live with it. Just as it has done as we crossed all of its other red lines. Because it has no more it can do about it than what it’s already doing.
It tries to attack us through sabotage, assassination plans, cyber espionage, and military intimidation, right now. What more can it do without starting a war it cannot possibly win?
Russia cannot be allowed peace on its terms and nobody in their right mind would let it have it. Because peace today on Russian terms is war tomorrow on Russian terms.
We all know it. That’s why Ukraine must win. For themselves and all of us. Peace for now remains a chimera.
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
PEACE WITH RUSSIA IS A CHIMERA
Chimera (ky-mare-ah): A thing that appears possible and hoped for but is impossible to achieve.
Erdogan claims he can negotiate a ‘just peace’, the implication being Russia had genuine reasons to start its aggression. Fico claims that Ukraine is no longer sovereign because it relies on foreign aid. Orban uses much the same argument - while at the same time deliberately stirring up tensions in the Hungarian-Ukrainian population across the border - just as he does in Rumania. He wants the land back Nazi Germany awarded Hungary at the 1941 Vienna Accords. He has zero hope of that prospect.
Russia claims it wants peace but provides nothing to negotiate with. Just a list of demands. These include Ukrainian complete disarmament, withdrawal from the oblasts that are half under Russian control and the permanent cession of Crimea to Russia, let alone no membership of NATO and the ‘de-Nazification’ whatever that is, of Ukraine. It probably means the death of anyone associated with the current regime. Ukraine will be a Russian controlled puppet state.
Hungary thinks Ukraine should be a buffer zone between his country and Russia - because deep down Orban no more trusts Putin than anyone else does.
These three limelight hogging actors on the world stage plus Putin, seek only their own aggrandisement.
Ukrainian-Hungarian relations you might have thought would
Improve a bit after Orban’s recent visit to Kyiv. The Ukrainians aren’t stupid. Zelensky did the right thing, he listened to what Orban had to say, probably with blood coming from his ears and trying to hold back a desire to throttle the frog like face of this European troublemaker, whose population of barely 10 million is one of the poorest and most inconsequential in Europe, propped up by foreign car companies like VW Group and EU hand outs. Hungary is one of the lowest GDP states in the EU - a situation made worse by its corruption and the unwillingness of foreign businesses to invest if they weren’t already there. Orban has nothing to crow about. When it comes to NATO and the EU there is an unofficial policy of not distributing sensitive information to either Hungary or Slovakia.
Yet these nations think they have the answer to the war. And it’s a simple one; you can’t win against Russia so don’t try.
Well that’s just nonsense. Russia has a long history of lost wars behind it. It can be beaten and it must be.
Ukraine had enough of Orban and Fico. Even though some of the refined product ends up back in Ukraine (about 10% of it), they decided to cut the oil pipelines supplying the Hungarian owned refinery in Slovakia that supplies both countries with Russian oil.
It forced Hungary to reveal its hand that it would hold up anything and everything to do with EU and NATO funding for Ukraine. Except both of those organisations have and are finding ways around ignoring these issues.
So now we know who the enemies are within the system we can ignore their persistent peace moves - because we know without question there would only be one winner and NATO and the EU would look like fools if they allowed it to be taken seriously.
So we have to face the simple facts. Ukraine and its international sponsored peace talks are almost as pointless. They matter because they show effort, but nobody is really taking them seriously and they’re not going anywhere.
They’re about making it clear there is a process and option available but Russia will never take it. So the war must go on.
Nothing gets anywhere because only one side is willing to talk sensibly. And that’s not the Russians.
CONTINUES…
🐾💔A volunteer and a military man together with Shayba the cat visited the fallen Ukrainian Heroes.
Eternal peace.
Good Night
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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