TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

⚡️Air Force commander: Ukraine destroys over 8,000 Russian air targets.

According to the Aug. 4 report, Russia has lost 363 airplanes, and 326 helicopters.

⚫ According to the Iranian statements in recent days, it seems that an Iranian attack in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is expected to be significant and extensive, more so than the attack on April 14.

In our estimation, this attack will be a combined launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs from many sites in western Iran, with both the IRGC and the Iranian Army taking part. We also assess that most of the launches will be carried out from open areas near the underground sites using mobile launchers.

The number of launch shafts that exist in each underground base held by Iran is relatively limited and can limit the rate of fire and the scope of launches. On the other hand, the use of mobile launchers, which come out of the underground sites, allows greater flexibility and more significant firing ranges. We have marked on the attached map 12 potential launch areas from western Iran. It is estimated that the attack will be carried out in coordination with the axis of Iranian proxies, with an emphasis on Hezbollah, which will respond to the assassination of Fuad Shakar.

Israel Alma

Zelensky:

First of all, today our gratitude goes to each of our warriors and all those who work in our defense industry for striking Russian airfields, oil refineries, and logistics. It is most effective when the consequences of the Russian war are brought back home to Russia, and when the enemy has no place of peace in the occupied territories of our country. Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported to me on the details of these strikes. Warriors, I thank everyone involved.

And we continue to tell our partners absolutely clearly that Ukraine needs to carry out strikes — really long-range strikes against the Russian occupier. Wherever the occupier is, wherever Russia strikes Ukraine from, wherever it launches missiles, "Shahed" drones, bombs from. We need this decision so that we can use all the weapons that can be effective.

We must protect the lives of our people and end the war on Ukrainian terms, and every strike that accurately responds to Russia's aerial bombs, that destroys Russian logistics and bases, that makes it more difficult for the occupier to stay on our land — every such strike brings the just end to the war closer. The just one for Ukraine and for all who value life.

I thank every one of our warriors in the Armed Forces, in Intelligence, and in the Security Service of Ukraine who ensures this with the forces we have and provides us with such necessary long-range results.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Ukrainian gold at the Games in Paris! Our saber fencing team: Olga Kharlan, Olena Kravatska, Alina Komaschuk, Yulia Bakastova. Thank you for the result, for the character, for the Ukrainians winning! 

We cheer for ours and support the whole country. Ukraine is also at the Olympic Games, and at such a time it knows how to inspire!

Hungary refused to exchange Russian oil for supplies from other countries

The Hungarian government rejected Croatia's offer to use its pipeline as an alternative to importing oil from Russia. The European Union demands that Hungary and Slovakia find a replacement for oil from Russia as quickly as possible, but Budapest is not taking any steps for this.

On Wednesday, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic sent a letter to the European Commission (EC), reporting the “underutilization” of the oil pipeline that runs through the country, starting on the Adriatic coast. The oil import infrastructure exceeds Croatia's needs and could provide landlocked countries with enough crude that could "reduce or eliminate their dependence on Russian oil," according to the letter seen by the Financial Times.

Plenkovic's proposal met with a furious response from Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó. He wrote on Facebook that it was part of an attack on Budapest coordinated with the EC. Szijjártó accused Croatia of “not being a reliable transit country,” of raising transit fees to five times the market average since the start of the war in Ukraine, of not investing in capacity expansion, and of preventing MOL from entering into long-term contracts. Szijjártó concluded: Hungary, along with Slovakia and the Czech Republic, received permission from the EU to continue purchasing Russian oil, despite the embargo imposed in the union. They have not been able to quickly replace it with supplies from other sources, but they should do so in the coming years.

Russian Oil Exports Hit 19-Month Low in July

The export of Russian oil from key western ports fell to a 19-month low in July, contributing to an overall decline in global seaborne oil flows, which decreased by about 586,000 barrels per day last month, according to Bloomberg.

Total supplies to China dropped by more than 1.4 million barrels per day, marking the largest decline this year, although these figures may still change.

Increased supplies from leading exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the United States helped offset the declines from Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, and Qatar.

Russian exports, primarily of Urals oil from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, fell to almost 1.8 million barrels per day in July, down from 2.2 million barrels in June.

Russia continues to meet its oil production obligations within OPEC+ and has increased domestic oil refining, potentially reducing the amount of oil it exports. A separate analysis showed that total seaborne oil exports from Russia were the lowest in nearly a year, with shipments from Baltic ports being the lowest since December 2022.

The oil industry remains a crucial source of revenue for the Russian budget, which is burdened by high military and social costs amid the ongoing war against Ukraine, now in its third year. Despite imposed restrictions, Russia continues to generate income from energy exports, financing the war.

For more on what Ukraine needs to do to halt the aggressor's energy "blood flow," read Volodymyr Omelchenko's article, "Why Oil Refining in the Russian Federation is a Legitimate Goal of War," by the director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.

⚡️ Unique footage of the launch of two "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles by a Ukrainian Su-24 bomber to hit targets in Crimea

Senator detained for organizing murder

It took 12 minutes to arrest the representative of the Tula region, Dmitry Savelyev, remove his immunity and charge him. Savelyev sat in the State Duma for 16 years, since 2016 in the Federation Council. In the 1990s, he worked in Lukoil and was the president of Transneft.

The crime story: Savelyev decided to deal with one of his business partners for embezzlement of funds. Last summer, he hired a killer for $100,000, but instead of executing the order, the guy went to the FSB. The murder of Ionov was staged, convincing Savelyev of his partner’s death.

Savelyev considers the case fabricated. It is already the second senator after Rauf Arashukov who has been detained in this way.

The questions: What did the FSB the whole year after they knew about the assassination attempt? Is this really the first time Savelyev used a contract killer? And most importantly, what did he really do wrong in the eyes of the Kremlin and who will fall into disgrace next?

@freerussia_report

Poland prepares for a war with Russia
"We will no become a Russian colony."

Poland already spends more than four per cent of its GDP on defence, but plans to increase the amount. Billions in purchases also attract criticism.

"We want to show that we are not ready to give up a single square centimetre of our land," Piotrowski, spokesman for the 1st Armoured Brigade in Warsaw said.

The country has become one of Europe's most important military powers in a short period of time. Staggeringly large arms purchases worth billions of euros have been reported frequently in Poland. It is the only NATO country to spend more than four per cent of its GDP on defence this year and will conclude more than 150 contracts for various weapons systems worth more than 23 billion euros.

But can Poland afford this? As recently as last year, Radosław Sikorski, representing the opposition, doubted the ability of the Polish economy to make such massive purchases.

"I don't think it's self-evident that Poland will be able to pay for all this," he said. Now Sikorski is the country's foreign minister, and suspicions of bills have turned into increasingly ambitious declarations. "Next year we will spend five percent of GDP on defense," Sikorski declared in July.

Poland's armament has been made possible by the country's strong economic growth as a member of the European Union. In May, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that Poles would be wealthier than the British in five years' time. Procurement also enjoys broad popular support.

And now Poland has declared its goal to build the best and largest ground forces in Europe. "This is necessary because we have suddenly woken up to the fact that we are on the front line of both Russia and Belarus," Świerczyński said.

Poland's intentions do not seem to be just words. A couple of weeks ago, NATO published fresh figures on the troops of its member countries. Poland has become the third largest army in the alliance with 216,000 troops, surpassing France and Germany.

Moreover Poland has set itself the goal of an army of 300,000 soldiers.

Russia has been irritated by Poland's rearmament. For example, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has called Poland a "dangerous enemy" and said the country should not exist. Drunk Dima also said that Poland's military build-up and the presence of Polish soldiers in Ukraine could cause a direct conflict between Russia, Belarus and Poland.

For his part, Prime Minister Tusk has said that Europe is living in a pre-war era.

Read more

@freerussia_report
🇪🇺@EU_Report 🇵🇱

The dog revealed a Russian infantry hideout in the basement, after which the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck there with an attack drone.

P.S. The dog is fine.

@liveukraine_media

Operational information as of 08:00 08/04/2024 regarding the Russian invasion

Glory to Ukraine!
The eight hundred and ninety-third day of the large-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has begun.
During the past day, 140 combat clashes were recorded. The hottest situation remains in the Pokrovsky direction, the enemy was also active in the Toretsk and Kupyansk directions.

According to detailed information, yesterday the enemy launched four missile strikes against the positions of Ukrainian units and populated areas using six missiles, as well as 49 airstrikes, dropping 62 anti-aircraft missiles. In addition, he carried out more than 5,100 attacks, 106 of them from rocket salvo systems.
The aggressor carried out airstrikes in the areas of populated areas, in particular, Loknya and Myropyllya of the Sumy region; Slobozhanske, Liptsi, Izbytske and Hlyboke of Kharkiv region; Makiivka, Siversk, Druzhba, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Grodivka, Zorya, Vozdvizhenka, Ptyche, Oleksandropil, Vremivka, Blagodatne, Urozayne of the Donetsk region; Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Pavlivka of the Zaporizhzhia region; Kozatsk, Kherson region.

Yesterday, the aviation and missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces carried out five strikes on the enemy's personnel concentration areas and OVT, and also hit the control post, five air defense systems, a radar station, an MTZ warehouse and another important object of the occupiers.

Six battles were fought in the Kharkiv direction . The defense forces repelled enemy assaults near Tykhi, Hlyboky and Vovchansk.

In the Kupyansk direction, 19 combat clashes took place, in particular, near Synkivka, Kolesnikivka, Novoosynovo, Glushkivka, Andriivka, Berestovo, Stelmakhivka, and Petropavlivka.

In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked eight times near Makiivka, Nevsky, and Terni.

In the Siversky direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled the assaults of the Russian invaders near Verkhnyokamyansky, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, Pereizny, and Spirny.

In the Kramatorsk direction, 12 battles were fought in the areas of Vasyukivka, Chasovoy Yar and Andriivka.

On the Toretsk direction, 20 skirmishes took place near Severny, New York, Toretsk, and Zalizny.

In the Pokrovsky direction, our defenders repelled 45 assaults in the areas of Panteleimonivka, Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvizhenka, Zhelanne, Novoselivka Persha, Kalinove, Mezhove, Karlivka, Svyridonivka, Skuchne, Ivanivka, and Yasnobrodivka settlements.

In the Kurakhiv direction, the Defense Forces stopped 11 attacks near Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Panteleimonivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka, where the enemy tried to break through the defenses of our troops.

In the Vremivsk direction, Russian troops carried out seven assaults near Vodyanyi, Kostyantynivka and Rozdolny.

In the Orykhiv direction, two enemy offensives near Robotyn were unsuccessful.

In the Gulyaipil and Prydniprovsky directions, the situation has not changed much.

No signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected in the Volyn and Poliske directions .

On the border with the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the enemy maintains a military presence, carries out mortar and artillery attacks on populated areas from the territory of the Russian Federation, and increases the density of mine and explosive barriers along the state border of Ukraine .

At the same time, our soldiers continue to actively inflict significant losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying forces, exhausting the enemy along the entire line of battle.
In general, the Russian invaders lost 1,150 people last day. Also, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed five tanks, 17 armored combat vehicles, 59 artillery systems, three anti-aircraft guns, three anti-aircraft vehicles, 41 operational-tactical BpLA, two cruise missiles, 80 vehicles and 11 units of special equipment of the occupiers.

Join the ranks of the Armed Forces!
Our strength is unity! Glory to Ukraine!

@ukrainejournal

❗️❗️A photo was posted on the Internet that allegedly showed the body of a Ukrainian prisoner with his head and limbs cut off.

Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets urgently appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN, as well as to Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. Law enforcement officers must check who the victim is and record the facts of the crime.

The Prosecutor General's Office has not yet commented on this information.

@liveukraine_media

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23154

🟢 Israel, a nation of 10 million citizens, has so far won six medals.
22 Arab countries, whose populations add up to 435 million, have so far won two medals.
How?
My answer: An Israeli culture of agency and meritocracy.
Al-Jazeera is probably reporting that Hamas won 100 medals and Israel zero.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain

🔴 Suspected Attack In Holon:
4 Found Wounded In Different Locations

i24NEWS

Update: Two persons killed

⚫ "Iran’s Missile Dilemma: The Hidden Struggle Behind Tehran's Delayed Response to Hamas Leader’s Assassination"

Military experts discussed Tehran's ballistic missile array on the network and the difficulty the Islamic Republic faces in preparing them for launch. According to a military analyst, the prolonged time required to set up the missiles may be a delaying factor for Iran's response.

Iran repeatedly threatens a military response against Israel following the assassination of Hamas' political bureau chairman, Ismail Haniyeh, threats that put the Middle East on the brink of a regional war with unknown outcomes.

Iran has a variety of possible weapons to respond against Israel, and the Iranian attack on Israeli territory in April provides a glimpse into the response options available to the Islamic Republic. Now, security experts worldwide point to a difficulty Iran faces precisely with its most effective weapon, a difficulty that might explain the long wait time between the assassination and any Iranian action.

Iran's ballistic missile array is one of the most developed in the world, including several technological branches of development that have been ongoing for years, leading to several impressive and fearsome weapons. Among dozens of models, three missiles are particularly relevant for firing at Israel: the Shahab-3, an Iranian development of the North Korean Nodong missile, and its two upgraded versions, the "Ghadr" and the "Emad." Additionally, Iran boasts a solid-fuel ballistic missile called "Khaibar Shikan" with a tremendous range of over 2,000 kilometers.

These are very difficult-to-intercept missiles, with multiple warheads and the ability to deceive defense systems. Iran used them during the attack on Israel in April alongside older missiles. Of the hundreds of munitions fired at Israel by Iran, only a few ballistic missiles managed to hit Israeli territory without being intercepted. Iran fired between 110 and 130 such missiles, most from its territory and a small number from Yemen.

A US military expert explains: "I think much of Iran's limitation stems from the number of launchers it has. Even if you have 2,000 missiles and only a hundred mobile launchers, you can only fire a hundred missiles in one volley." The expert explains that the missile models in Iranian hands are a development of a Soviet concept, requiring the launch of missiles from a mobile launcher rather than from launch pits or pre-prepared cartridges, as the American army does.

This means that it takes a long time to set up the missile for launch, fuel it, and bring it to a state of launch readiness. The expert claims that it can take a skilled Iranian crew at least six hours to prepare such a missile for launch, and a less skilled crew almost a day. It is unclear how many mobile launchers Iran possesses and even less so the level of training and capability of the crews. The expert believes it took the Iranians several days to prepare for the launch towards Israel in April and that they would struggle to maintain such a firing rate over time if the Iranian response escalates into an exchange of blows.

The prolonged process of preparing a large number of ballistic missiles for launch may be behind the time it takes for the Iranians to respond to the assassination that occurred almost a week ago or at least serves as an encouraging factor for Tehran's psychological campaign, which causes damage to Israel's economy in front of its people.

IsraelHayomHeb

Dan Rather
https://open.substack.com/pub/steady/p/songs-in-the-key-of-life?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Kiev Independent

https://mailchi.mp/kyivindependent/welcome-to-the-ukraine-daily-newsletter-17587498?e=7763f0b74a

Joyce Vance
https://open.substack.com/pub/joycevance/p/back-in-business?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Two grumpy old men
https://open.substack.com/pub/twogrumpyoldmenonukraine/p/in-memoriam-morgan-williams-and-the?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email