TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

What I want for Christmas

The mosquitos are ferocious. Going in.
Goodnight Resisters everywhere

The Ukrainian Defense Forces delivered a “precise strike” on a storage facility for Shahed drones in Russia’s Krasnodar region

According to the General Staff, around 400 combat drones were stored at the facility. Secondary explosions were observed on the site following the strike.

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continues

Operational information of the General Staff as of 08.00 on 09.10.2024 regarding the Russian invasion
part 2/2

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy tried to storm four times in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk and Staritsa. In addition, the occupiers attacked the city of Kharkiv with guided aerial bombs, as a result of which the civilian population and civilian infrastructure were damaged.

In the Kupyan direction, 18 attacks by invaders took place during the day. The defense forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynovo, Vyshnevo, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, and Kruglyakivka.

The enemy attacked 19 times in the Lyman direction. Tried to penetrate our defenses near Makiivka, Grekivka, Vyshnevo, Novovodyan, Torsky, Nevsky, Novosadovo and Dibrova.

In the Siverskyi direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled two assaults by Russian invaders near Ivano-Daryivka and Spirny.

In the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked four times in the areas of Kalynyvka, Chasovoy Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora.

In the direction of Toretsk, the enemy, actively using aviation, carried out 12 attacks near Toretsk, Nelipivka and Diliivka.

In the Pokrovsky direction, our defenders stopped 37 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor towards the settlements of Sukha Balka, Novotoretske, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Krutiy Yar, Novogrodivka and Selidove. The greatest concentration of enemy attacks was near Selidovoy and Lysivka.

In the Kurakhiv direction, the Defense Forces repelled 40 attacks. The occupiers most actively tried to advance in the areas of Katerynivka and Antonivka settlements. In addition, the enemy attacked in the direction of Tsukuryny, Novoselidivka, Hirnyky, Maksimilianivka, Georgiyivka, Kostyantynivka, Kurakhivka, Izmailivka, Gostroy, Kurakhyivka, and Vodyanyi.

In the Vremivsk direction, the enemy carried out six assaults on our positions in the Bogoyavlenka area.

In the Orihiv direction, the occupying forces twice stormed the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of Robotyny and Novodanilivka.

Six times the enemy unsuccessfully attacked our defenders in the Dnieper direction.

The operation is ongoing in the Kursk region. Enemy aviation continues to raze their villages and cities to the ground. Over the past 24 hours, Russian aircraft have carried out ten airstrikes by eleven anti-aircraft missiles on their own territory.

No signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected in the Volyn and Poliske directions.

On the border with the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the enemy from the territory of the Russian Federation is actively using artillery and aviation in the areas of Ukrainian settlements.

Our soldiers inflict significant losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying forces and actively undermine the offensive potential of the enemy in the rear.
In general, the Russian invaders lost 1,150 people last day. Ukrainian soldiers also destroyed 4 tanks, 11 armored combat vehicles, 19 artillery systems, 31 operational-tactical UAVs, 55 cars and 12 special equipment units of the occupiers.

Join the Defense Forces!
Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

@ukrainejournal

Operational information of the General Staff as of 08.00 on 09.10.2024 regarding the Russian invasion
part 1/2

Glory to Ukraine!
The nine hundred and fifty-ninth day of the large-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has begun.

The situation at the front remains difficult. The enemy, using their advantage in manpower and equipment, is relentlessly attacking our positions. Ukrainian defenders steadfastly restrained the onslaught of the invaders, inflicting significant losses on the enemy.
In total, 172 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.

According to detailed information, yesterday the enemy launched one missile strike against the positions of Ukrainian units and populated areas using three missiles, as well as 82 airstrikes, including dropping 137 anti-aircraft missiles. In addition, it carried out 3,460 attacks, 70 of them from rocket salvo systems, and engaged 1,190 kamikaze drones for destruction.

The aggressor carried out airstrikes, in particular in the areas of the settlements of Yastrubyne, Pavlivka, Turya, Khotin, Kindrativka, Novoivanivka, Hirky, Volfine, Obody, Richki, Pytomnyk, Kharkiv, Mali Prohody, Borivska Andriivka, Petropavlivka, Cherkaska Lozova, Berestov, Vyshneve, Pershotravneve, Bohuslavka, Zagryzove, Torske, Yampolivka, Liman, Dronivka, Siversk, Yurkivka, Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivske, Druzhba, Katerynivka, Toretsk, Oleksandropil, Katerynivka, Novodarivka, Bogoyavlenka, Velika Novosilka, Lobkove, Novopil, Mala Tokmachka, Lviv.

Over the past day, missile troops and artillery of the Defense Forces hit five areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, one means of anti-aircraft defense and one command post of the russian invaders.

to continue

@ukrainejournal

2
It doesn’t matter if Ukraine has a Victory Plan if nobody is paying attention. The whole leaders meeting has now been postponed in Germany as Biden is stuck in the US because of the Hurricane. Yet another if somewhat understandable delay.
Victor Orban is blocking yet another €35 billion in aid to suit his agenda just as Slovakia’s Robert Fico, another Putin worshipping stooge, tried to get Ukraine to keep gas flowing to Slovakia from Russia - after having said it would never join  NATO as long as he was breathing.
The West is riddled with those who would destroy Ukraine and our democracies. They have no idea what they are really asking for. They have never lived in this age in dictatorship - unlike the East Europeans who for the most part know differently.
Why then are we so reluctant to call them out and support the bravest people in Europe to do the same?
If we do not wage this war to its fullest and to its conclusion Ukraine will lose. It’s not too late but it’s getting close.
Only the US election and a Democratic win in the Senate, House and Presidency can make this happen. Only America can lead the west on this path.
Europe is too divided to do it alone, pathetic as that sounds.
If Ukraine loses. Who is next?
At least we know who to blame, for what good that will do us.

The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
@ukrainejournal

Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
Seems to me, this military analyst has access to a lot of information but terrible mood swings! He's up and down like a yo-yo!
To leave you on a positive note, let's start with the less optimistic news...
Dianna

MORALE IS LOW, DESERTIONS ARE HIGH AND UKRAINE IS LOSING

This is based on recent reporting from Ukrainian journalists, direct reporting from on site pro-Ukrainian ex-patriots and other sources who really don’t want to be named or even hinted at being identified.

Estimates of as many as 100,000 Ukrainian deserters are seen as fairly on point.
The reason is that there’s such a shortage of quality equipment, because the west isn’t supplying it on any scale worth its name, that soldiers believe they will die without any hope of going home again.
The morale of front line soldiers was described as being at best, similar to German troops in July 1944 - D-Day had happened and it was clear they were in no position to stop the allied advance in the west or Russia’s in the east. But they still had hope.
At worst Ukrainian morale is described as Germans in January 1945.
They had just lost the battle of the Bulge, allied forces were entering Germany proper, the Russians were on the Oder just a handful of miles from Berlin. They knew it was over but they still wouldn’t give in.
I don’t like the comparison with Germany in 44-45 but to be fair if you have the historical perspective and understanding of that period in detail, you can understand where the observation has its validity.
If you accept the premise of the description simply on the basis of historical comparison, and I urge you to do so for clarity - then things are truly dire.
The Ukrainians are good at propaganda and the diet we are fed is one of endless positivity.
I understand why, but it can blind you to reality and it’s an unpalatable realisation that things are not what they seem.
The problem for Ukraine is that its allies want it to win but they just haven’t learned that to make that happen there must be a financial price the public of the west must pay.
Winning costs money. Winning takes up industrial capacity and requires resources and determination to make happen.
Why is there no factory turning out basic war equipment for Ukrainian soldiers 24/7?
Why is there still not the capacity to produce 155mm shells at anything like the pace needed to keep on top of the need?
Why is there no European factory devoted to turning out say, Saab CV-90’s at a rate of ten or twenty a day?
Why hasn’t missile production for anti-air been stepped up not just to the feeble maximum of the one factory that makes one of eight different kinds of missiles? But all factories, and all the component factories, why are they still not working at five times what they are?
It’s because we in the West have not done enough.
We have said the words, “we will stand by Ukraine to the end”, while so under-arming and equipping it that we have ensured that the end is coming - and not one that ends in our favour, let alone Ukraine’s.
What is wrong with our governments that they cannot see where this goes if it carries on like this?
Shockingly I spoke to a female friend the other day who I have not seen in a while. She’s a professional in a major UK business. She asked what I was doing. When I said ‘writing a lot about the war in Ukraine’, advising interested parties’…she looked at me quizzically, ‘Oh’, she said, ‘is that still going on?’
She is not alone in that regard.
Most people have brushed the war aside in the minds and forgotten it’s even happening.
This is why the war is being lost.  The Public have lost interest and don’t know. So their leaders seeing and hearing no pressure have lost all but the minimum interest.
.../2

@ukrainejournal

And now for the good news:

THE LONG RANGE WAR IS UKRAINE’S ACE CARD

There’s no doubt in my mind that when Putin began his adventure in Ukraine - and those who avidly supported it - they didn’t think for one minute that it would ever lead to targets across Russia coming under relentless and consistent attacks. Ukraine has developed in the space of three years a strategic war fighting capability based on ever more sophisticated drones - some of them with thousands of kilometres range.  If anything they have turned what Russia has done to them on its head and shown they too, can reach painfully deep and meaningful targets that have lasting effects on Russia.
Over the past couple of nights the Ukrainians have again struck deep at key Russian targets - this time at the very radars that potentially detect the drones and provide some warning, along with key fuel distribution hubs and
Feodosia in Crimea was attacked destroying a refined fuels transshipment hub, another at Voronezh was also taken out despite Russia claiming they shut down all drones. The site was clearly engulfed in flames.
And this is more interesting because of the range, that jet powered drones appeared to have been filmed attacking another site like this as far away as Perm, also up in flames said to cover over 1km square.
Another airbase in the Voronezh region was struck, targeting Su-35’s, GBU bomb warehousing and local radars.
Much of this was possible because in the last week the Ukrainians managed to find and destroy a Russian mobile radar station just 15km from the front. These are immensely expensive $120m units that take two years to build and Russia only had 15 when the war started - over half have been destroyed.
With these gone Ukrainian Su-24’s - possibly the last two in service - used StormShadow and GMLRS to strike Russian  command bunkers - in devastating fireballs that can’t have left much behind. You can see the video on United24. These wiped out the command of some three brigades and  a sector logistics planning centre.
The Ukrainians have no choice - they must use what they have against Russia as quickly as it becomes available to them. Destroying the support architecture behind the lines is and does have direct impact on the front.
Within days of the ammo depot destruction shell shortages began as the supply chain was severed. Reduced radar cover provided opportunities for other strikes, fuel shortages hamper armoured assaults.
It all has its effect and it certainly costs Russia more time and more money. The very two things it has least of.
The long range war will go on.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
@ukrainejournal

Robert Reich

https://open.substack.com/pub/robertreich/p/office-hours-milton-helene-floods?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

It's hard to hold back tears when you see these family reunions. Thousands of Ukrainians are waiting for their loved ones to return home from military service, even for a short vacation. Many more are waiting for those who remain in russian captivity.

@ukrainejournal

In other news
Some extremely impressive footage of Israel's iron dome air defence.

I wish Ukraine had iron dome air defence!! 🥺😢

@ukrainejournal

https://open.substack.com/pub/ukrinformsubscription/p/newsletter-09102024?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Anna Bowles

https://open.substack.com/pub/annabowles/p/stoves-for-mospanove?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Jeff Tiedrich

https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/donald-trump-is-once-again-the-kremlins?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Alexander Vindman
https://open.substack.com/pub/alexandervindman/p/putin-plays-trump?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The Analyst

MI5 HEAD WARNS UK OVER RUSSIAN DISRUPTION ATTACKS

I’ve explained a couple of times before why Russia has a pathological loathing of Britain, dating back to the mid 1800’s.
The British are largely unaware of it because it seems somehow ludicrous as we close in on the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century. Some Britons find it harder still to understand when we sacrificed so much sending the convoys into arctic waters to supply Russia during the worst parts of WW2. Thousands of British sailors died to get ships laden with equipment to Archangelsk.
That however has all been forgotten in Russia. Britain is the architect in Russian eyes, of support for Ukraine. Once again Britain is seen as Perfidious Albion - you can look that one up!
The head of MI5 gave a public briefing yesterday where he stated that Putin has ordered that he wants to see ‘disruption and chaos’ inside the UK.
Plans are underway to sow discord and hatred in the country through the right wing and left wing extremism that caused the riots earlier this year.
Social media and provocation is to be used to stimulate unrest on a grand scale.
The first defense for any situation is knowing that it’s going to happen.
The second is knowing that it’s going to take ten times the effort to stop lies and misinformation than it takes to create it.
It’s not just social unrest. Military manufacturing sites and physical attacks on key infrastructure are all expected with major efforts by Russian cyber forces to cause problems.
All of this is depends on if they can spare the time. Over the last three days Ukraine launched a major cyber attack on Russian banking, news, and government services in Russia - apparently highly successful at that.
Russia should also be very careful what it does. GCHQ and its cyber arm are capable organisations that work hand in hand with the US NSA and they won’t just sit by and ignore it.
As far as social media goes we have to make sure we understand as a nation we are the target and we need to do what Britons have been known for, for 90 years past -
Keep Calm and Carry On!

RUSSIAN S-70 OKHOTNIK

The holy grail of western air forces as we head into an AI driven future, is an effective combat force multiplier.
A force multiplier is something that gives you added capabilities in the 80% range, ideally, but without the cost exceeding around 30% of the primary platform.
The best way for western nations to maximise their limited budgets and magnify their expensive maned fighter jets, is the Loyal Wingman Concept.
Ideally the US is eventually looking to field a pair of drones linked to a single aircraft such as the F-35, that will fly with it carrying additional kit - weapons, jammers, even potentially additional fuel (the US navy is well advanced with such a drone having completed in flight tests refuelling from carriers).
Australia is highly committed and has already ordered Loyal Wingman from Lockheed to be built in Australia.
So, just over a week ago on Saturday 5th October, a bizarre incident happened over Russian occupied Ukrainian air space.
An Su-57 a rare sight itself, was operating with what is believed to be just one of only three of Russia’s equivalent drones.
These drones are not small, they are in essence an unmanned combat jet without any of the pilot supporting features.
The S-70 Okhotnik is a huge delta wing format drone and at some point while flying near the frontlines around Konstantinivka, it broke contact with the Su-57 and started to head into Ukraine.
Afraid that they couldn’t get it back under control and it would end up in western hands, the pilot was ordered to shoot it down. He did so using a missile from around 1.5km away.
The missile hit but while it knocked the drones engine out it didn’t destroy the drone, which fell in one piece - spiralling downwards and hit the ground where it broke into several pieces.
These have of course proved to be of huge interest to Ukraine and its western allies.
You have to ask yourself what the Russians were doing using it over a combat zone when it’s still considered largely experimental. But perhaps that was the point, to see if radars picked it up and how it might perform under hostile EW.
The answer appears to have been badly.
What will be of particular interest is where the sophisticated on board computers, circuits and chips came from, let alone how Russia is approaching this crucial new technology.
The images show the Su-57 shooting down the drone and it falling to the ground.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

Ukraine and Croatia signed an Agreement on long-term support and cooperation between the two countries.

“Together, we will continue to develop cooperation between our defense industries. Croatia will keep providing equipment and sharing expertise on humanitarian demining,” — Zelensky.

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Due to Hurricane Milton, Biden withdrew.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40240

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/heres-what-i-love-about-what-kamala-harris-is-doing-right-now/58461/