TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

James Comer likes the dark. Instead of a public hearing where we, the public who are paying his salary can see, he wants a closed door.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/lets-investigate-the-shit-out-of?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

What awaits the USA and Europe in case of loss and complete occupation of Ukraine - ISW

The article highlights how helping Ukraine to defeat Russia is lower in cost compared to allowing Russia to win, in terms of military and economical factors:

- the cost of the consequences (refugee crisis)

- the military spending needed for defending and deterrence of the NATO borders from Russian bases and air defense systems located on the border with Poland.

- the lost benefits from a strong western-oriented Ukrainian economy.

(and this does not even discuss the cost in human suffering)

CONTINUES (1/3)

CONTINUED (2/3)

The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think.

A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit.

Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.

The Ukrainian military with Western support has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022 according to US intelligence sources, but the Russians have replaced those manpower losses and are ramping up their industrial base to make good their material losses at a rate much faster than their pre-war capacity had permitted.

A victorious Russian army at the end of this war will be combat experienced and considerably larger than the pre-2022 Russian land forces. The Russian economy will gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode and Moscow develops ways to circumvent or mitigate those that remain.

Over time it will replace its equipment and rebuild its coherence, drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare. It will bring with it advanced air defense systems that only American stealth aircraft—badly needed to deter and confront China—can reliably penetrate.

Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military. Since Moscow has already committed to an ambitious post-war military expansion program the US cannot be confident that the timeframe will be very long.

The overall military potential of the United States and its NATO allies is so much greater than that of Russia that there is no reason to doubt the West’s ability to defeat any conceivable Russian military even assuming that Russia fully absorbs Ukraine and Belarus.

But as Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win.

Those costs are much higher than most people imagine.

To deter and defend against a renewed Russian threat following a full Russian victory in Ukraine the United States will have to deploy to Eastern Europe a sizable portion of its ground forces.

The United States will have to station in Europe a large number of stealth aircraft. Building and maintaining those aircraft is intrinsically expensive, but challenges in manufacturing them rapidly will likely force the United States to make a terrible choice between keeping enough in Asia to defend Taiwan and its other Asian allies and deterring or defeating a Russian attack on a NATO ally.

The entire undertaking will cost a fortune, and the cost will last as long as the Russian threat continues—potentially indefinitely.

Almost any other outcome of the Ukraine war is preferable to this one. Helping Ukraine keep the lines where they are through continuous Western military support is far more advantageous and cheaper for the United States than allowing Ukraine to lose.

"Freezing” the conflict is worse than continuing to help Ukraine fight—that would simply give Russia time and space to prepare for a renewed war to conquer Ukraine and confront NATO.

Helping Ukraine regain control of all or most of its territory would be much more advantageous, as it would drive Russian forces even further to the east. Best of all, supporting Ukraine to its victory and then helping it rebuild would put the largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent at the forefront of the defense of NATO—whether Ukraine does or does not ultimately join the alliance.

In all these scenarios Americans should keep in mind that Ukraine is not Afghanistan. Afghanistan in 2001 was one of the poorest countries in the world with no industry to speak of and a poorly-educated population.

Ukraine is highly industrialized with a modern, urban, and highly educated population.

CONTINUED (3/3)

Restored to its 1991 borders Ukraine’s economy is large enough to support its own military.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently committed his country to establishing its own military industry including by establishing joint ventures with Western firms to benefit Ukraine and its partners.

A victorious Ukraine would not be a permanent ward of the West. It can instead be truly independent and contribute greatly to NATO’s security and the West’s economy.

❗️In the administration of the President of the United States, they call on Congress not to delay the approval of aid to Ukraine - John Kirby.

"Almost 20 months after the start of the brutal and barbaric invasion, Putin said today that his aggression in Ukraine will not end and that peace will only come when, quote, 'our goals are achieved'... But I really hope that those Republicans in the House of Representatives , who have held critical aid to Ukraine hostage for months, heard Putin's message loud and clear," Kirby said

He noted that while the members of the House of Representatives go home this week for the Christmas holidays, the Ukrainian people will continue to experience shelling of peaceful cities, which Russia targets on critical infrastructure.

"They need our help. And they need it now, not after the Christmas eggnog,” Kirby emphasized.

"Putin directly challenges the international order, he challenges the Charter, he challenges democracy directly," the White House spokesman stressed.

The Russian army will begin to teach survival in assaults after record losses in Ukraine

A new system of physical training is being introduced in the army, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine. Now the soldiers will be trained for high-intensity combat operations in the field, with weapons and in full equipment, several sources in the military department told Izvestia. According to them, a draft updated manual on physical training (NFP) has already been developed and will be approved by the Ministry of Defense by the end of the year.

So, for example, in the new document the running load has increased - now a typical exercise will be a 5 km run in full equipment. It also includes a new set of strength exercises to develop tactical endurance, sources say. Before the introduction of new standards, the Ministry of Defense interviewed military doctors and participants in the war in Ukraine, what the soldiers lacked on the front line and during assaults, says Associate Professor of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov Colonel Alexander Perendzhiev.

The next revision of the approach will take place against the backdrop of major losses in the war against Ukraine. According to American intelligence data, since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has lost 315 thousand military personnel killed and wounded, or 87% of the personnel that the Russian Ministry of Defense had.

Watch the video of a Russian mech assault.

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16631

🇺🇦🇺🇦 Rest in Peace Fedir. 🇺🇦🇺🇦

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16618

Connor Berlin, an American neurosurgeon
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16621

Demand Russia's Withdrawal from Ukraine or Their Exclusion from the 2024 Olympics

#1. This petition seeks to ban Russia from participating in the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris under the Russian flag, or any other “false flag”.

#2. This petition further seeks to have all major sponsors publicly withdraw support AND all advertising during the games if Russia participates.

#3 if Russia is allowed to participate in these 2024 Olympics this petition encourages all signatories to not view any games. If there are low anticipated viewers due to the global protest, the IOC, and more importantly its sponsors, will be penalized for support of Russia in this aggression.

#4 This petition further seeks for sponsors to shift all sponsorship and advertising spend to ads protesting the illegal Russian invasion and supporting Ukrainian relief causes.

The range in viewership has ranged from 1.4 billion for the 2022 games in China to 3 billion in Japan in 2020. This petition seeks to make the Paris Olympics a success if Russia is banned and a failure if Russia participates.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) receives $2 billion in advertising from 13 sponsors. At least 9 of the 13 major sponsors have discontinued operating in Russia. The sponsors who have already ceased operations are:

Coca Cola
Visa
Airbnb
Toyota
Panasonic
Intel
GE
Bridgestone
Atos

These 9 sponsors have already proven they protest the Russian invasion. We appeal to these 9 sponsors to pressure the IoC to ban Russia.

Since the full major Russian invasion of Ukraine over 1,000 corporations have withdrawn operations from Russia.

Over 50% of Russian medalists are typically active duty Russian soldiers. It is a crime against humanity to allow Russian soldiers to participate in the Olympics while their comrades continue this aggression in Ukraine.

This protest was created and led by the American University Kyiv (AUK). AUK privudes full scholarships to Spouses and Children of the Fallen Ukrainian Heroes.

Sign the petition here

🇺🇦 @GalaxyCurse ⚜️

I think merely the fact that he needs handlers says it all.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trumps-handlers-hit-the-panic-button-over-his-worsening-senility-2/53562/

First repaired Leopard 2 tanks being returned from repair facility
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-first-leopard-2s-repaired-in-lithuania-will-soon-arrive-in-ukraine/

Russia crashed a drone in Romania and Romania is royally pissed off.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-drone-crashes-in-romania/

Poroshenko Foundation donates rifles, trucks, and UAVs to Ukraine.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/poroshenko-foundation-donates-trucks-uavs-and-airsoft-assault-rifles-to-ukrainian-armed-forces/

Curling in Ukraine
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/16301

🇪🇺 At the summit in Brussels, EU leaders decided to allocate €50 billion to Ukraine for 2024-2027. For this purpose, the Ukraine Facility will be created.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry welcomed the decision and expects all legal procedures to be completed in January 2024, after which funding will begin. The money will be used to maintain macroeconomic stability, restore and modernize the state, and accelerate EU integration.

Due to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's veto, these funds will not be included in the EU budget, but the EU has a backup plan. The 26 member states are expected to provide €1.5 billion to Ukraine starting next year.

@liveukraine_media

Good Morning. Cloudy and supposed to rain. But we need rain. Temps in the 20s will return Sunday.

The regional court stated that Alexey Navalny “left the Vladimir region”

During the hearing, the court read a certificate dated December 12 from the Federal Penitentiary Service for the Vladimir Region, which states that “Alexey Navalny left PKU IK-6 in the Vladimir Region to a correctional facility located outside the Vladimir Region, in accordance with the verdict of the Moscow City Court that entered into legal force dated August 4, 2023. Navalny’s arrival will be notified within the framework of current legislation.”

The meeting was postponed to December 18 “until the whereabouts of Alexey Anatolyevich Navalny are clarified.” Navalny’s whereabouts have not been known since December 6.

Killed? 🧐

Gee, I guess Ukraine killed a lot of Russians between yesterday and today.
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/16298

I have a hard time picturing Republicans as fun loving uncles to real living breathing women. The thought that popped into my mind was, "a monkey's uncle".

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/kellyanne-conway-is-at-it-again/53565/