TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

Good morning. 31⁰ outside. Here I sit in my car which is about 45⁰ seems to vary between one and 3 bars this morning

The Finnish company VR has taken control of Allegro trains from the joint venture with Russian Railways. The trains will continue to operate between the two countries until March 2022, as reported by Reuters.

The Finnish side alleges that Russia failed to meet its financial obligations to the Karelian trains joint venture. This non-compliance prompted VR to acquire the loans of the Finnish-Russian company, resulting in the complete transfer of train usage rights to the Finnish entity.

Russian railway workers are displeased with this development and accuse the Finnish side of unilaterally transferring control of the trains.

"Despite Russian Railways' repeated offers to resume the operation of Allegro trains within the framework of existing agreements, the Finnish side did not accept them," stated Russian Railways.

Europe must swiftly accelerate the development of its defense industry because, in the near future, the Union cannot rely on the USA to ensure its security," stated German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in an interview with Welt am Sonntag.

The minister stressed Brussels' recognition of the potential risks associated with the cessation of military aid supply to Ukraine by the US.

"We comprehend that at some point, we might need to compensate for certain resources that might no longer be supplied by Washington. There might be areas that we cannot immediately substitute," he remarked.

Pistorius highlighted that the US will reduce its commitment to Europe's defense, regardless of the presidency, redirecting focus to the Pacific region.

"This necessitates heightened European commitment to securing our continent. For instance, our defense industry requires time to enhance its capabilities. We have a window of approximately five to eight years to bridge the gap — both in our armed forces and across industry and society," Pistorius stated.

He reiterated concerns about Russia's substantial increase in defense production, emphasizing that Vladimir Putin's threats against the Baltic countries, Georgia, and Moldova "should be taken extremely seriously".

"This isn't mere saber-rattling. By the end of this decade, we might encounter significant threats. Nevertheless, we will be prepared for them by then," emphasized Pistorius.

A group of Hamas terrorists wer apprehended on hospital grounds. Now one has been identified as a doctor at that hospital. Another is his brother.
The head of the European-Mediterranean surveillance organization: in the picture of the armed men Kamal Adwan, a doctor and a brother of the hospital employees
https://t.me/NewsWorld_23/3208

Not a popular guy

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16720

❗️Lithuania suggested Orbán's Hungary leaves the EU.

The Permanent Representative of Lithuania to the EU, Arnoldas Pranckevičius, addressed the authorities of the only European Union member state that did not support the allocation of 50 billion euros to Ukraine.

"I really wish this EU member state never experiences the war that the Ukrainian people are currently going through; for their cities not to be bombed, their citizens not killed, and for an aggressor country not to occupy their territories. I would like this state not to have to ask others for solidarity and face vetoes from allies for vital assistance in moments of acute need," he said.

Pranckevičius added that the EU's strength lies in solidarity and mutual trust: "If you're not ready for either, there's only one right decision - to leave," he concluded.

It's going cold tonight. They started saying 31⁰ and now say 29⁰, so it will probably be 27⁰. Tomorrow night 22⁰. Got smart. Went in the house about a half hour ago and built a fire. It takes about 2 hours before the stove is putting out heat. For the first two hours it just absorbs the heat. Lots of firebrick inside.

🗡 Today, the Katsapas once again set foot in a convoy in the area of ​​the Avdiiv Terikon - DeepState

🇷🇺 About 15 armored personnel carriers drove through Krasnohorivka to the south to Terikon, dropped the ruzZian infantry and went back. The combined efforts of all the brigades on the site managed to destroy more than half of the equipment. The landing party is concentrated in the landings, its destruction continues. Expect a video of equipment damage from the crews in the coming days.

📋 Tactics generally do not change. Regular columns in the hope of a quick operation. Again, we are talking about the important role of surveillance of the LBZ from drones and other UAVs, which reduce to zero the possibility of any blitzkrieg at the operational-tactical level.

Surrounded and surrendering, one soldier left a note on a brick. I guess he expected to die in captivity.

✈️  Defense Blog reports that Ukraine has begun full-scale production of its AQ-400 kamikaze UAV, that has a maximum speed of 144 km/h, a range of up to 750 km, and capable of carrying warheads weighing up to 32 kg

The initial production volume is stated at 100 units per month, but the company plans to increase it to 500 per month

P.S. Just look at these sick bastards (😁). The appearance of the drone certainly leaves room for improvement, but the main thing is that I hope it will do its job well 😈

🗡 Today, the Ruzzians once again set foot in a column in the area of ​​the Avdiivka Terikon

About 15 armored personnel carriers drove through Krasnohorivka to the south to Terikon, dropped the infantry and went back. With the joint efforts of all the brigades on the site, it was possible to destroy more than half of the vehicles. Expect a video of equipment damage from the crews in the coming days.

📋 Tactics generally do not change. Regular columns in the hope of a quick amphibious operation. Again, we are talking about the important role of surveillance of drones and other UAVs, which reduce to zero the possibility of any blitzkrieg at the operational-tactical level.

From "The Analyst":

WEATHER CONDITIONS HAMMER
FRONTLINE ACTIVITY

The long forecast collapse of part of the Polar Vortex, which happens as warm equatorial air pushes north out of the Pacific, (caused by the El Niño effect which is at a high), tips freezing cold air south - often over the US and Canada or North Atlantic- but just as often over Russia.
The size of Russia means that the air flow splays out over much wider areas and plunging cold air has done just that, with part of it blasting across most of the frontlines, where it again meets warmer wet air blown west from Europe.
The result is high winds in the Black Sea and a constant ebbing and flowing of heavy rain and freezing conditions, quickly swapping with wind blasted frozen rain.
The temperature changes are dramatic, with -6c nights and days swapping with 6c days where everything rapidly melts have been common.
The results are appalling front line conditions, deep mud, flooded and frozen trenches, no sleep, trapped vehicles, slow logistics.
Heavy fog forms reining in drone use and equipment is plastered in mud.
Trench Foot - a nasty and painful condition that rots the flesh, last seen in the war in Korea caused by sodden footwear, hobbles soldiers.
Shelter and somewhere to hide when you can’t move is hard to come by. Many of the tree lines, such a ubiquitous feature of Ukraine, designed to break the speed of harsh winds and stop soil erosion, are now devastated stumps with no leaf cover to hide under.
This winter is not going to be like last years mild one. All the forecasts for Russia and Ukraine are for a harder deeper cold. Russia you would think is prepared for it, but little has been done to winterise their forces. Ukraine has much that was granted last year and not used - more is coming from Scandinavia and Canada.
Spare a thought for those who will spend the next weeks and months defending Ukraine in filthy mud, slime, freezing snows and blizzards.
The next few months are going to be very hard indeed.

Patriarch Kirill is safely back in Moscow but there is now an arrest warrant.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16712

Children hear these sirens every day.
https://t.me/United24media/16435

A very successful campaign to raise money for drones. The drones save lives. Ukrainians take out Russian soldiers with minimal risk to themselves
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/more-than-uah-220-million-raised-for-5-thousand-fpv-drones/

Britain is considering the possibility of sending troops
https://t.me/United24media/16426

🗣 The Ukrainian General Staff has changed its military strategy. The new task is to inflict as many casualties on the occupiers as possible while preserving as many Ukrainian military personnel as possible, — Bild with reference to an officer of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Now there is no pressure on us to move forward. The key now will be the loss ratio. If the ratio is 10 to 1, we hold our positions, if it’s 1 to 1, we retreat, — said the officer

These tactics will continue until Russia loses enough men and equipment to exhaust its offensive capabilities, or until a game changer arrives at the front and allows Ukraine to regain the initiative. Such "game changers" could be ATACMS or Taurus missiles (in large deliveries) + F-16 or JAS-39 fighters

P.S. In short, as I understand it, Ukraine is putting itself on strategic defense like last winter, until (if) supplies of the weapons described above arrive. Then, in 2024, as was written in the previous post, Ukraine may try again to carry out an offensive operation, but with new weapons

Ukraine may lose the war by summer 2024 without US and NATO help - CNN

The publication says that Western intelligence agencies are now calculating how long Ukraine can survive without US and NATO assistance. According to one senior U.S. military official, it is a matter of "months," with the worst-case scenario being "a significant retreat or even defeat" by the summer of 2024.

Western officials estimate that without additional U.S. assistance, Ukraine will first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles, and then artillery munitions and short-range missiles such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

The absence of a decision on military aid in Congress is already affecting the battlefield in Ukraine. According to CNN's sources, Ukrainian troops are already rationing ammunition, and Russia has a "five to seven times" advantage in ammunition.

@liveukraine_media

Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition due to the delay in the US aid, and the cessation of US support will be crucial for Ukraine — CNN.

Senior US and Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian forces now have a five- to sevenfold advantage in shells over the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This leads to additional losses in the ranks of the Ukrainian army.

According to Western officials, without additional US assistance, Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles, and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

"Each category of munition has been crucial to Ukraine’s defense. The long-range missiles, such as the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, have been central to Ukraine’s success in pushing back Russia’s Black Sea fleet hundreds of miles to open up a shipping corridor for grain and other supplies.

Air defense missiles have proven particularly essential in recent weeks as Russia has expanded its attacks on civilian infrastructure this winter.

Shorter-range missiles have enabled Ukrainian forces to defend against Russian tanks and aircraft, which greatly outnumber their own," the article says.

A senior US military official believes that without US and NATO assistance, Ukraine will last only a few months in this war and will be defeated in the summer of 2024, CNN reports.

In Europe, there is also increasing discontent with the actions of the US Congress, which is blocking aid to Ukraine.

“I don’t think people fully realize what Ukraine’s fall would actually mean. We would see horrible things: ethnic cleansing and the total destruction of Ukraine. Remember what they did in Bucha. If we can prevent this, it will be a success,” an unnamed European diplomat stated.