TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
😡The russians hit Zaporizhzhia again.
There are injured journalists from Ukrinform and 1+1.
The number of victims increased to 19.
Russia used three missiles, and soon after it carried out a second strike with two more missiles while rescuers and police were on the scene.
From "The Analyst":
AIRBASE STRIKES SUCCESS
Ukrainian drones struck at least two airbases successfully last night. I’ve been waiting to see the latest figures but we may have to wait a little longer to be absolutely sure of the totals of Russian aircraft lost, but it’s looking like it’s between 12 and 18.
Ukraine knows it has to make the front line airfields untenable- and the Russians know it too, so they are quite well defended. As Russia has learned from the experience of attacking Ukraine, Ukraine has in turn learnt from Russia how to approach such targets.
Unquestionably drones were shot down, that was expected and what usually happens is that enough arrive in two formats - firstly the all at once method, where so many arrive at once they can’t possibly be all shot down, or that sacrificial drones go in first to wear down the air defences and the second wave arrives just as the missiles run out and have to be reloaded.
Even so, there’s outrage in Russia that they haven’t been able to produce or even start to organise, simple Ukraine style man on a pickup truck with machine gun defences. These have been successful in Ukraine but Russia seems incapable of producing them.
It’s become such a bind for the oil refinery companies that they have been paying for their own anti-drone equipment and hunting around the world for it wherever they can buy it at any price.
A third airbase was also reached - outside of Saratov, which is much deeper inside Russia - but this seems to have been a recon/probing operation more than a straight up mass attack.
Again the tactics Ukraine are employing are designed to keep Russian air defences on their guard and uncertain. What do you defend? The refineries? The air bases? There’s only so many defence systems to go around - and they’re not on the front line leaving that as another operational area open to attack.
The Russians seem taken aback by the fact their own tactics and strategies have been adopted so quickly and effectively by their victim. What did they expect? Not this I think. They have forgotten the old but always relevant rules of war.
If you can’t win don’t fight. And if you do fight when you know you can’t really win, don’t be surprised that the victim of your attack uses your own ideas and weakness against you.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN TACTICAL AIR FORCE UPDATE
Russian Tactical Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine. After two years of air war, its total force is slightly less than 75% of its prewar strength.
The VKS has directly lost approximately 16 fighters over the past eight months. However, this does not account for the imputed losses, which arise from an aircraft accruing more flight hours than planned, reducing its overall life. Based on updated available information, the VKS is on track to suffer approximately 60 imputed aircraft losses this year from overuse. That’s equivalent to losing 26 new aircraft of newer types. Meanwhile the Russian MoD currently procures only about 20 total Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft per year, and even that is stretching believability under the current sanctions regime.
The air war has mostly maintained a steady state since mid-2023, with the exception of February 2024, when the VKS flew approximately 150 sorties per day in support of the Avdiivka offensive, proving decisive. Given that Russia also has been using longer-range glide bombs and devoted more aircraft to air-to-ground roles, the average sortie duration has also likely decreased, reducing the accelerated aging. Even so, slightly more than half of the tactical airframes are more than 30 years old; these have far fewer flight hours left.
This accelerated aging may be shaping Russian combat operations. The majority of VKS fighters operating (and lost) over Ukraine are the newer Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft with occasional reported sightings of Su-25, but many of these were lost early on and they are very elderly.
The older MiG-31s and Su-27s have been relegated to supporting hypersonic Kinzhal strikes and air patrol at a distance. With an estimated average remaining airframe life of less than 20% and 35% respectively, these older aircraft can be used for this war, but likely have insufficient life to support Russia’s potential future air warfare needs.
Russia’s air-to-air warfare MiG-29s are totally absent, even from air-patrol missions. Given their age, these aircraft are likely unserviceable. Regardless, whether due to lack of upgrades, survivability or age, these are effectively non existent aircraft.
The Su-24s, on the other hand, were used extensively in the invasion of Ukraine. But there have been no reports of Su-24 losses so far in 2024. These aircraft are old with the newest models manufactured in 1993. The VKS may have chosen not to configure them for their new FAB-1500 glide bombs, which would also hint at the fact that the Su-24s may be reaching the end of their useful lives.
Ukraine, which is short on air defense munitions, has a few options to accelerate Russian air losses. Attacking air bases would likely reduce VKS sortie rates by more than 20% by disrupting operations and forcing them to fly from more distant bases. The greatest opportunity remains the effect of F-16’s (and possible Gripens) to divert Russian sorties from ground-attack to air-to-air efforts.
Three from the Analyst
From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN FAILURE AT KRASNOHORIVKA
Having taken the town of Merinka after a long slog of a battle that lasted months, made more complex by difficult lakes, swamps and rivers, the town of Krasnohorivka just to then north of Merinka is a key defensive point.
The town has long been on the frontline - right back to 2014. As a result it’s heavily fortified with an industrial zone and high rise buildings offering outstanding zones of observation and fire control.
In addition there are swamps, bogs and wetlands around the area that, due to so much long term fighting over ten years, have effectively re-wilded without human interference to maintain drainage and farmland. It is not an easy place to attack even on the best of days.
By now you will know what the Russians use to demolish high rise buildings - waves of air launched glide bombs, and that’s exactly what they have done.
Russian forces started to accumulated for this offensive in early March, and the bombings intensified dramatically in preparation.
The attacks began on April 3-4 with the first coming through the southern wetlands gap - a very narrow approach point the Russians must have known the Ukrainian forces would have covered. They attacked anyway and ran straight into a minefield. The first groups didn’t even get out of their carriers before being destroyed. These were sacrificial forces. The second and third waves made their way through and deployed their infantry.
Having forced the defenders out of the lightly defended southern part of the town- and behind the heavier defence line, the Russians dug in to their captured positions.
Ukraine had long expected an attack here and the town is of tactical importance in terms of local supply. Losing it would be unfortunate. As
A result the army had established a group of three sets of quick reaction reserves, designed to be deployed rapidly at whatever point the attack might come from.
These forces, made up of the battle hardened 1st & 2nd battalions of the 3rd Assault Brigade, trained specifically with the best equipment to deal with these types of situations.
They rapidly moved through the Russian lines, using infantry assault tactics and drones, causing chaos in the Russian forces which it was noted, seemed to be disconnected from their command and totally uncoordinated.
Things were so bad that the Ukrainian forces were listening in on the unencrypted Russian comms and knew what they planned - they stood by while Russian artillery was ordered to open fire on their soldiers own positions in error.
The Ukrainian army managed to force the Russians back past their original start position and confirmed observation showed that Russian loses were running at around 4:1.
Yet again the ability of Ukrainian forces to evacuate wounded soldiers saved lives - something not even remotely comparable on the Russian side where even minor injuries can result in death.
The Russians were driven out, their loses high, and they’re back to where they started.
A brilliant counter attack operation by the Ukrainians who clearly have a few surprises waiting for the Russians wherever they try next.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
153rd Mechanized Brigade is no longer mechanized, — MilitaryLand.
The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reorganized the 153rd Mechanized Brigade into an infantry brigade. This change was announced through the official social media channels of the brigade.
While the official reason behind the change remains undisclosed, it is presumably linked to the shortage of infantry fighting vehicles. The problem arose already prior to the formation of 150ish mechanized brigades, it’s not new. Western partners are no longer supplying an adequate quantity of equipment to replenish existing mechanized brigades and form new ones. The remaining “free” mechanized equipment is now being allocated to motivated units, who proved themselves in the fight.
The reorganization of the 153rd Brigade may not be an isolated occurrence. According to the sources, the 152nd Mechanized Brigade is also slated for transformation into an infantry brigade in the near future.
🔥 The night attack on the Morozovsk military airfield in Russia was organized by the SBU – at least 6 aircrafts were destroyed and 8 more were severely damaged, Army TV reports, citing sources. There are reports of about 20 dead and wounded Russian soldiers.
Frontline bombers Su-24, Su-24M, and Su-34 were based at the airfield. These bombers attack Ukrainian positions and frontline cities with guided aerial bombs.
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine
Russia bombed Doctors Without Borders
https://t.me/United24media/20482
Japan has a long list
WHERE IS THE MONEY?
The Analyst
The West is very good at making promises but not so good at coughing up the money.
The availability of 1.5 million shells - and now another 300,000 that Estonia can acquire, required funding to the tune of $1.8 billion.
That’s a good deal. Yet Czechia which is brokering the deal, has received just about enough money to buy only 300,000 of the shells on offer. However it’s been promised enough to buy twice that so far and is looking for the rest from donations. So where is the promised money? Nobody wants to admit who has and hasn’t paid. More to the point how is it so difficult to get hold of just $1.8 billion between some thirty+ countries? Some have offered nothing at all.
NATO is looking to take over the management of the Ramstein process and is looking for a $100 billion permanent fund to support Ukraine on an ongoing permanent basis.
Already, Hungary is refusing to take part and wants nothing to do with the matter.
Many countries are warning that the last thing needed is big numbers that actually can’t be financed and don’t have formalised support.
In the US it’s now become clear that the Speaker is unlikely to put any motion on the table when he said he would. Extreme pro-Russian Trumplicans like Marjorie Traitor Greene are threatening his position and he has barely ten day window to pass the motion before yet another recess for another two weeks starts on April 22nd. That again, is his own doing, designed to prevent any discharge motion of the existing senate-passed bill being voted on. Already at least another month has been added to any feasible aid package and they don’t start work until April 9! It’s deliberate and dysfunctional, it is a betrayal of every decent American.
Yet there’s good news said to be coming from the UK. An announcement on the use of Russian frozen funds for Ukraine weapons is set to be made any day.
The American Administration seems inclined to offer a similar deal not too far down the road.
@Dianna_DiDi
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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