TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
MTG's family coat of arms must be a straight jacket.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/no-you-delusional-dipshits-joe-biden?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
UKRAINIANS WIN AFTER COUNTER ATTACK
On the northern section of the Avdivka salient, where the Russians had pushed through two layers of light defence lines earlier this year (after the Ukrainians mistakenly left the area undefended during a rotation), they had been heading towards the more distant target of Pokrovsk. This is an important hub and supply point for this sector of the front.
Having captured Ocheretyne the Russians culminated their attacks and the front stabilised. Not before they had placed themselves in the position of being able to get behind two layers of defences and threaten Ukrainian positions.
To defend themselves the Ukrainians used extensive drone attacks with the limited artillery they were able to use. Russian forces became distracted by the Chasiv Yar attacks so were in no position to fully leverage their gains after the shock advances from Avdivka, potentially a major strategic mistake as they had been making good progress and stood to gain far more if they had reinforced the attack. This is where that Russian ‘box of supplies’ practice fails them. Commanders get given a set of forces to do a job then it runs out and that’s it, no matter the results the box is empty and you get no more - regardless of the success level.
Even so the Russians made minor attempts to push towards Novoprokovske and Sokil. These went hideously wrong and they lost at least five tanks and another half dozen APC’s from refreshed Ukrainian artillery and drones. The tanks unusually didn’t lead the way but acted as rear fire support until
they fled and were destroyed.
The Russian soldiers in the APC’s had abandoned them and took up positions in a patch of trees by a
main road, where cluster munitions dealt with most of them and an M2 Bradley went in and finished off the rest.
Ukraine decided at this point to eradicate the origin point of these attacks and sent in FPV drones during daytime and heavy grenade dropping drones at night. They soon found around 100-200 Russians had established themselves in basements in ruins of the captured village of
Soloyove.
Swapping the drone charges for higher powered explosives designed to collapse the buildings, a rapid simultaneous campaign wiped out all but a handful of the hidden invaders.
Ukraine had also spotted Russians establishing themselves in a 100m treeline and quickly finished them off - at least fifty dead were later geolocated.
With Soloyove largely neutralised the Russians realised things were going badly and sent in half a dozen APC’s with fresh troops from their rear. Right into the expectant drone forces of the Ukrainians waiting for just such a move. The Russians were all destroyed.
Knowing by now that the Russians were extremely weak and had no
Immediately available reserves, Ukraine sent in a number of Bradley’s which quickly advanced and the Russians later confirmed they had lost a sizeable tranche of land near Soloyove to the Ukrainian counter attack.
The principal issues for the Russians are the scale of their losses when engaged in offensive operations.
The old rule of ground warfare is that you need at least a 3:1 advantage on attack - ideally 5 or more to 1. In this war that’s no longer true.
Drones add another force multiplying layer to that equation so you simply can’t estimate what the defender can do. The ensuing losses in manpower and equipment become quickly unsustainable unless you have truly vast reserves and can breakthrough in a major way at a single point that’s particularly weak. In essence you
need extremes - extremely large numbers of attacking forces against extremely small numbers of defenders in an extremely weak defensive position. Finding these positions on the front at this stage of the war is becoming extremely difficult for both sides.
You have to have huge reserves to exploit any situation. Estimate what you need and multiply by five, then add 50%. Even then you probably don’t have quite enough. The days of overwhelming force in this war seem to be over.
You can only create opportunities as Ukraine did here, and then keep doing that for as long as you can to make any gains. Small slices repeatedly taken with precision seem far more likely to make gains than any grand offensive. Seizing opportunity is the only way to make gains. Making sure you don’t provide them is vital - because they will be seen and exploited.
Outstanding Ukrainian command and control, fantastic leadership and use of skilled drone operators, coordinated artillery, infantry and armour. Ukrainians at their best.
Slava Ukraine
Russia is unlikely to attack any NATO member, — Hungarian Prime Minister.
Viktor Orbán said that Russia is unlikely to attack any NATO member, as its forces have already shown their limits in Ukraine and were not strong enough to win quickly: “If the Russians were strong enough to defeat the Ukrainians in one fell swoop, they would have done it already.”
He emphasized that NATO's military potential far exceeds that of Ukraine, so it is unlikely that Russia or any other country will attack NATO: “I do not think it is logical that Russia, which cannot even defeat Ukraine, will suddenly come and swallow the entire Western world. The chances of this are extremely low.”
At the same time, Hungary wants to be able to opt out if NATO engages in combat outside its member states: “Our lawyers and officers are working hard to ensure that Hungary can maintain its membership in the Alliance in a way that does not require it to participate in NATO actions outside of NATO territory,” he said.
Russian border guards have removed buoys marking the navigable channel from Estonian waters on the Narva River — Estonia is waiting for explanations on this matter.
Head of the Regional Border Guard Bureau Eerik Purgel explained that before Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, Estonia, and Russia had been installing fairway markers by mutual agreement every spring, but since 2023, Russia has not agreed to Estonia's proposals.
According to him, this year Russia has stated that it does not agree with the placement of around half of the 250 buoys. Last night, Russian border guards removed 24 buoys, some of which were among those with which Russia disagreed.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stated that Tallinn will approach the case in a balanced manner and, if necessary, consult with its allies.
Syrskyi:
I continue my work in parts of the Eastern Front. After the first minor successes in the course of offensive battles in Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy was completely bogged down in street battles for Vovchansk and suffered very high losses in the personnel of the assault units. Currently, the enemy is transferring reserves from various directions, trying to support active assault operations, but without success.
In the Liptsi district, the enemy also suffered significant losses, switched to active defense, is conducting minesweeping and fire damage to the positions of our troops.
In the Kupyansk direction, fighting continues in the forest area north of the city. The situation is difficult in the Kislivka area, where the enemy is trying to break through our defenses and reach the Oskil River.
Intense fighting continues in the Ivanovo area and on the approaches to Chasovoy Yar. The enemy is trying to cling to the city at any cost, uses the latest T-90M, BMP-3, BMD-4, which are usually destroyed by our anti-tank weapons and FPV drones during the advance.
The most intense and fierce battles continue in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. The enemy is trying to break through the defense of our troops on a narrow section of the front between the settlements of Staromykhailivka - Berdychi through offensive and assault actions of the most prepared units.
Offensive actions take place both with the use of armored vehicles and on foot, often on motorcycles and buggies.
The key purpose of my work is to study the situation on the spot, solve problematic issues, provide additional quantities of ammunition, drones, EW and other MTZ, reinforcement with reserves, etc.
I would like to note the effective work of the majority of commanders and staffs in organizing combat operations, attacking the enemy with fire, and maintaining cooperation with neighboring units. Of course, there are problems that require quick and drastic solutions.
I believe in our Victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
⚡️The first group of combat pilots from Ukraine has completed training on F-16 aircraft at a military base in Arizona, the spokeswoman for the US National Guard Air Force, Erin Hannigan, said, Politico reported.
“The pilots had been training at the 162d National Guard Air Force Base in Tucson,” she said.
At the same time, she did not specify how many Ukrainian soldiers were part of the group, citing compliance with operational security requirements.
📷: AFP
Good morning Resisters everywhere. I especially want to reach out to the resisters in Iran. Your time in the sun is coming
Germany supported the United States in the use of frozen Russian assets.
Germany has changed its position on the use of frozen Russian assets and now supports the US proposal to use them to finance Ukraine, Bloomberg writes, citing sources familiar with the negotiations.
Germany's agreement could be a turning point in a protracted discussion, after which the EU will agree to a new plan to help Kyiv and ensure the participation of the United States in it regardless of the outcome of the elections in November 2024. It refers to about $50 billion in revenues from the frozen $300 billion.
The latest U.S. proposal has been received more positively in European capitals, including Berlin, because it involves simply using asset-generated interest without confiscating the principal, officials said. EU countries have already agreed to use this revenue stream, taxing it at almost 100%, and to transfer these revenues to Ukraine twice a year. The G-7 agreement will replace this agreement.
Earlier, the United States offered to spend the frozen russian assets themselves to help Ukraine. The EU has just approved the use of revenues from them. According to the new regulations, 90% of the income received will be sent to Ukraine. They can be used both for reconstruction and for military purposes. The depositories will temporarily withhold the remaining 10% in case of their own risks.
The EU does not intend to transfer income from frozen assets to russia even after lifting of the sanctions.
European officials are not ready to confiscate the assets themselves, seeing this as a violation of international law. The United States, unlike the EU, would like to spend the frozen assets themselves, the House of Representatives in April already approved a bill that allows Ukraine to send about $6 billion of the frozen $300 billion in reserves.
The decision may be made at the G7 summit in Brindisi, Italy, on June 13-15.
Read more
@freerussia_report
The Moscow City Court rejected Vladimir Kara-Murza's appeal against the inaction of the Investigative Committee regarding his poisoning
According to Kara-Murza, the Investigative Committee did not verify the application and did not register it. “I ask that inaction in the investigation into the attempt on my life be declared unlawful,” he said.
Politician Vladimir Kara-Murza was seriously poisoned in May 2015 and February 2017. He believes that these were attempts on his life. In 2021, Bellingcat and Der Spiegel linked those involved in the Navalny investigation to the Kara-Murza case. They found out that Kara-Murza was being followed by the same people who were tailing opposition leader Alexei Navalny before his hospitalization.
In 2023, Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison in a case of “treason,” “fakes,” and participation in an “undesirable organization.” His appeal was rejected.
@freerussia_report
We know he is actually quite cold. He complains about it all the time
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/senile-donald-trump-goes-on-bender-about-being-a-hot-guy-during-disastrous-bronx-rally-speech/56239/
RUSSIAN ATTACK ON SOUTHERN FRONT TURNS BAD
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen any major activity in the south, however Russia has no launched an offensive against the villages of Uruzaine and Stomaiorske. These were recaptured from the Russians during the Ukrainian summer offensive last year.
Ukraine has been forced to reduce its forces on less active fronts as it doesn’t have the luxury of limitless manpower. Quite possibly this encouraged the Russians to take advantage of the situation.
Much of the region is open fields and farmland so it’s difficult to get about without being seen and targeted.
The ultimate objective for Russia here is Novovalisilke which is key to the whole region’s logistics and sits north of these two villages. If the Russians push west from Donetsk and north from Urazhine then they could potentially undermine Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar which holds the key cornerstone to the front, where it turns from north-south to east-west.
The Russians started their offensive using Lancett loitering drones well behind the front to pick off Ukrainian artillery and targeted bridges on supply roads into the area.
The lack of artillery and air defences has made the area far easier for the Russians to operate, and in the past week they have managed to push north over 1km west of Stomaiorske.
This area was a key area of high ground and losing it meant the Russians were quickly inside Stomaiorske, where heavy fighting has started.
At the same time Uruzhaine came under heavy air bombardment with FAB-250 and 500’s to soften it up
prior to a ground assault.
Russian tanks and infantry reached the southern end of the village but made no breakthrough. Having failed they moved further east along the southern front to a potential weak spot that would then allow them to outflank the village.
At Uruzhaine a single Ukrainian tank managed to see off two Russian ones and three APC’s in a remarkable demonstration of movement and positioning.
The overall Russian strategy is clearly to take advantage of Ukrainian manpower and equipment shortages by stretching them in multiple places as far apart as they can so that reinforcements can’t be everywhere.
Sooner or later something has to give is the theory.
Undoubtedly in the south, given enough material the Russians could make advances, but it’s a long way to achieve anything substantial here, suggesting that it’s more about distraction and opportunity than any real gains. Those are targeted at far more important strategic and political targets in the east.
Russia is preparing a summer offensive - where its strikes will soon start to become obvious.
Ukrainian flexibility and determination to hold them off has been crucial to the defence of the southern sector.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
@EveryUkraineWarVideo Subscribe
German deputies discussing the idea to shoot down russian missiles over Ukraine from the territory of NATO countries.
NATO countries may start destroying russian missiles over Ukraine from their territory in order to relieve the load on the Ukrainian air defense system and allow Kyiv to defend the front. This idea found more support among German politicians than a possible sending of troops, writes Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
In particular, this proposal was supported by deputies of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green Party.
CDU spokesman and member of the Foreign Affairs Committee Roderich Kiesewetter cited Israel as an example, which the United States, Great Britain, France and other Western countries helped repel an Iranian air attack. According to him, this shows that such a decision will not make NATO countries a party to the conflict.
It is possible to use air defense to destroy Russian missiles from the territory of Poland and Romania, said Anton Hofreiter, head of the Bundestag Committee on European Policy. Air defense systems need to be deployed on the borders of neighboring countries so that "the western parts of Ukraine can be defended," said Agnieszka Bruger, a deputy from the Green Party.
At the same time, the implementation of this idea will require the production of more new air defense systems and missiles for them, said Markus Faber, a deputy from the Free Democratic Party.
The fact that NATO countries are studying the possibility of shooting down russian missiles over Ukraine was announced at the end of March by Deputy Polish Foreign Minister Andrzej Sheina. At the same time, he made a reservation that such a decision can be made "only with the consent of the Ukrainian side and taking into account its international consequences."
In April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the possibility that NATO countries might use their aircraft to intercept russian missiles hitting the country's energy facilities. "If this aviation rises on the territory of our neighboring countries, and shoots down missiles that certainly fly to Ukraine, but can also fly to these territories, as the facts with Poland and Romania have already been recorded, then let them shoot down these missiles, I will only applaud," Zelensky said.
Source
@freerussia_report
🇪🇺@EU_Report 🇺🇦
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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