TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
Footage of GBU-39 bomb strike on a building with Russian personnel in the Kursk region, - Khorne Group
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine
Good morning Resisters everywhere. The hurricane precipitation has finally passed and it's blue skies and sunny. 66⁰
I am happy to report I am not old enough to remember that far back.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/remember-remember/58155/
and pressure on the oil industry intensifies, it’s just getting worse and winter is coming to make it much worse still.
My advice to Ukraine is never for one minute let up on these oil infrastructure sites - it’s Russia’s Achilles heel and its effects are both immediate and long term. It’s one weakness that can massively contribute to Russian’s ultimate demise. Winter can magnify the damage beyond repair. Use it.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
From the Unnamed Military Analyst
UKRAINE’S ANTI-OIL STRATEGY IS A LOOMING DISASTER FOR RUSSIA
A drone here, a drone there, then drones are everywhere, hitting key refining equipment that shuts down entire refineries. The latest has been the huge Moscow operation.
The Russians denied it was damaged but recent video revealed literally hundreds of tankers lined up on freeways, apparently ordered there to take away the refined product stuck on site and the crude they couldn’t move.
It’s not however as simple a strategy as causing inconvenience.
Russia has a unique problem with oil production that only a small area of Alaska has to deal with in anything like a comparable way. Winter, harsh super-deep freeze winters like nowhere else on Earth oil is drilled.
These winters mean that oil extraction can never stop, the pipelines must always flow, the wellheads must never close down. In negative temperatures most of us cannot imagine, keeping the machines pumping and the oil moving under pressure to stop it from freezing or becoming excessively viscous and causing blockages is critical.
Back in 1989 Russian oil exports collapsed and the industry was left to rot. Vast swathes of the arctic oil industry ground to a stop and within months it was permanently unusable. It took 30 years to restore the pre-89 level of production.
And Russia couldn’t have done it alone any more than it did in the 1980’s. Thousands of western technicians and billions in western investment was needed to put it back into viable use. Russians didn’t have the supporting industry or the technology or the human technical experience to carry out such a major industrial redevelopment. And they still don’t.
Every time a refinery closes down, every time a storage depot is lost, means Russia can’t pump crude oil.
In the past it gained exemptions from OPEC+ from production cuts because of its ‘winter factor’. Russia gained hugely from this, seeing prices rise for no cuts on its part and cashed in handsomely for no effort. It didn’t once cut production.
Then came the attack on Ukraine and the loss of overseas markets.
America ramped up production and is now the largest oil producer by a factor of almost two, at twice the output of Saudi Arabia. There is no oil shortage in the wider world. American production rates have totally undermined OPEC price gauging. The price of oil is around $72pb which is barely sustainable for some of the Middle East economies- Iran is struggling with it as is Iraq and Kuwait. Russia is in an even worse situation with sanctioned prices and restrictions on its tanker fleet.
Every oil refinery hit by a drone is forcing Russia to cut production at the well heads. It has nowhere to store the oil it drills and nowhere sufficient to refine it. Production cuts have had to be made - estimated now to have reached over 1 million barrels per day at the start of this year and likely to have doubled by now. With limited shipping to export the crude, more cuts are essential. It became so much of an issue Russia declared oil production information a state secret in May.
And Ukraine knows the worst is yet to come.
A wave of drone strikes against refineries in early winter will force yet more capacity cuts in the dead cold. That will mean permanent and likely irretrievable closures. Oil wells closed in winter will likely be permanently ruined and require re-drilling. Tens of thousands of kilometres of pipelines will need repairs and inspections once oil stops moving. Wellheads will become unrecoverable.
This is what Ukraine’s war on the refineries and the storage sites means. As they attack the export terminals and the transport pipelines to those terminals, the grip on Russian oil exports tightens. Production itself is constrained and expensive. And Russia has no answers.
It is so dependent on oil for its income it faces an economic existential crisis down the road. Western companies won’t want to be burned again once peace comes. It is risking its current and future generations' prosperity. As drone attacks continue...
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russians claim Ukraine targets bomber base near Finland for 2 consecutive days
Two drones were reportedly shot down near Olenya air base today, and three more yesterday. russians mistakenly fired on a civilian aircraft, thinking it was a drone.
Source
@ukrainejourna
JD Vance says that Trump’s “peace plan” for Ukraine is to let russia keep all the Ukrainian territory they currently occupy (nearly 20% of Ukraine) and give russia a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO and any other “allies institution” [EU?]
A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.
****
~ Trump been so secretive about his plan toward Ukraine & ruZZia war, but his mate JD Vance has leaked the plan during his interview. What a perfect mate ~ 👀😁
@ukrainejournal
Many women in Moscow are being told to get a fertility test.The test checks for a hormone called AMH, which indicates a woman's ability to get pregnant. Several women under 38 reported receiving notices on the city's website, directing them to the test, but no explanation why the test is needed.
National guidelines from Russia's Health Ministry ask all regions to check the reproductive health of citizens aged 18 - 49. This includes both men and women. Women will visit gynecologists, while men will see urologists or specialists trained in men's fertility.
Source: Insiderussia channel, Sept. 13, 2024
@ukrainejournal
A comparison of how many flags of fallen soldiers there were in 2022 and how many there were in 2024 on the central square of Kyiv 😭
@ukrainejournal
Don-old is doing sex changes without surgery.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/senile-donald-trump-has-no-idea-who-anyone-is-in-latest-failed-attempt-at-a-rally-speech/58159/
Ukrainian paratroopers defeated a Russian airborne unit in Kursk region on Friday, according to Ukrainian Air Assault Forces
As a result, five infantry fighting vehicles, a tank and an armored personnel carrier were destroyed.
📹Ukrainian Air Assault Forces
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And don't forget the My Pillow guy. Is he bankrupt yet?
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/long-road-to-ruin/58149/
Ukrainian paratroopers defeated a Russian airborne unit in Kursk region on Friday, according to Ukrainian Air Assault Forces
As a result, five infantry fighting vehicles, a tank and an armored personnel carrier were destroyed.
📹Ukrainian Air Assault Forces
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine
On October 1, the White House may lose access to $5.8 billion for Ukraine's defense - Biden appeals to Congress to extend the use of the funds
These are funds from the Presidential Defense Assistance Program (PDA), which provides Ukraine with weapons from US stockpiles. The authorization for their use is valid until the end of September.
The Hill writes that if the program is not extended, the White House may announce $5.8 billion in aid to Ukraine by October, and then send weapons throughout the year. But this may cause legal problems.
The Pentagon is also currently working with Congress to extend the PDA.
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Ukraine has started producing 155 mm artillery shells.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, former head of the Ministry of Strategic Industry, says that production of defense equipment in Ukraine has doubled since the start of the full-scale war and will triple by the end of the year.
Norway is financing the production of 155 mm caliber shells in Ukraine and has also allowed the use of Nammo technology for this purpose.
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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