Why would the chance of them winning hold any relevance to if i vote for them or not?

@freemo Many people can't see past the next election. Voting for a third-party candidate may "waste a vote" today, but it may be the difference between, for example, whether or not the party has ballot access four years from now.

@curt Can you let me know which state you are aware of where ballot access is determined by voting results from previous years?

@freemo It's one of the ways of maintaining party status on the ballot here in Arizona. https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00804.htm

@curt Ahh interesting.. I'm left wondering though how such a system could possibly bootstrap a new party then where there have been no past elections for said party.

@freemo There's a separate Arizona statute for new political parties that uses petitions.