Jonathan Hunter @chattwjonathan@qoto.org

The weather for most of the country has calmed for this weekend, and cold air has settled in to much of the country.

There is a LOT of variability this coming week with what could happen through Christmas, but there are 3 vague potential snow threats for SE Tennessee / Chattanooga showing on the Wx Models!

Don't get to excited yet, because I'm just highlighting the potential. Fair chance that NONE of these materialize, but I'll list out the triple threat that I see, and my current thinking. Individual probabilities are low, but I'd say cumulative chance of seeing any snow in the sky through Christmas day might be as much as 60% right now, which is way higher than usual!

1. Monday afternoon - midnight - ish.

This has shown on most of the weather model runs for the last 2 days. However, it's unlikely to bring accumulation. Cold air being pushed out as we get under a warm front for a quick changeover event.

2. Thursday / Friday - ish

This even has shown on GFS for multiple days - and has been more well signaled than the other. However, the details swing wildly from run to run, showing the high variability. This is the long wave with MUCH higher potential for...well everything. But certainly out there to be a big bust too! Expect...something, but don't bank on snow. This will be a HUGE travel interrupter for the eastern part of the U.S. so be ready.

3. Christmas Day

This has actually shown up on the last few model runs as well, as consistent snow from a shortwave. Don't bank on it - it's way way too far out, but most of the runs dig cold air deeper after the prior storm, and I'd put it in to the plausible category.

#Weather #TNwx #whitechristmas #chattanooga

@sgtgary - Cool to connect!

I'm a current forecaster for a national trucking company and run a small staff. Love going through operational products, but I run a lot of my program with driver input.

I post mostly weather, but I'm trying to make this into more of my first social media go-to rather than twitter.

Just up tonight with a call-in on 2nd shift and watching I-80 and north.

I have a truck stuck in Winner, South Dakota off U.S. 183 - currently on his way to Reno, NV and started in Wilkes-Barre PA. Been stuck in blizzard conditions the last 2 days.

How did he get there you might ask? GPS of course.

Why would a Truck GPS ever lead him to Winner SD when I-80 runs pretty much straight between the two?

He started off normally on the trip on I-80, but I-80 became closed Sunday night due to Blizzard conditions in Wyoming and Nebraska. This was put into the GPS's calculations, so it rerouted him up I-90 from Chicago to head around it.

BUT by the time, he got to I-90 in Minnesota, that road was closed ahead in South Dakota due to the same blizzard conditions.

So the GPS if a genius and takes this in to account & it shows that SD-14/U.S. 183 heading west across southern South Dakota is open and routes them that way!

Of course, the GPS is not accounting for the fact that it's ALL blizzard and now they are on a lesser road with worse road care and lesser services. And here they sit with everything closed and no fuel. Perfect no notes.

I'm not going to tell you that I don't blame my folks for not looking at any weather or deciding that this was a good idea to get in so deep. But it's also a company approved device. We tell people to check it out and that those roads are supposed to be safe. This is just endlessly stupid in multiples ways.

#Weather #Trucking #Blizzard #gps #southdakota

Introduced the kids to Alvin & the Chipmunks Christmas song, and they're so adorable - they love it.

And yes, if you're in the eastern U.S. - almost anywhere - I have seen at least 1 model run where you have snow on the ground on Christmas!

I'm not going to publish those, because they're not consistent and should not be considered accurate.

This is the "precision vs accuracy" illustrated in model form. The long weather models provide some precise outputs for where and when it might rain or snow - but they are not accurate at that level.

#weather #whitechristmas

All the signals are aligning to tell us with a higher degree of certainty than usual that the eastern half of the U.S will be cold for Christmas.

This will create the potential setup of a white Christmas in unusual places, as well as in the Midwest. But none of these are a guarantee.

If you see people posting that with certainty this far out, ignore it, but keep an eye out as this may affect a lot of Christmas travel!

#weather #christmas #whitechristmas

What causes a can of beer to feel over-pressured?

I recently bought a 6 pack of Five Wits Daydream and that's the only impression I get. Carbonation overwhelms every sip.

I like their beer on tap, but this can was a miss.