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Just a little recap on coronavirus numbers for those who like to make it sound like Trump and the USA did a bad job on handling it, when in fact long-term seems we did a better job than almost any other country.
Just a side note, it is important we look at coronavirus cases and not deaths because we dont have similar comorbidities across countries. Obesity is the #1 comorbidity for coronavirus and the USA has more of that, by far, than any other country. Obviously we cant lay that blame on Trump or the government. So if we want to fairly evaluate the USA's government in handling this we have to look at the part of the equation they have control over that is case count. So lets give a good summary of that.
I will break the numbers down into two points, one to demonstrate long term outlook will be the change in case numbers since lockdown was letup in each respective country. For the most part that would be mid june to mid july for most countries. The other number we will look at is the current situation, which we will look at percentage of the population currently infected to measure that.
Literally I picked 7 random countries in europe and even included canada. The USA has beat all but two countries in terms of infection rate, canada, which is only slightly better, and germany, which has half the infection rate. The other 5 countries the USA is doing significantly better than on infection rate. More importantly though in terms of trending since lockdown the USA has significantly outperformed every single country without a single exception by a huge margin. In fact the USA is the only country showing a downward trend since lockdown was over at 1/3 increase where all other countries have seen upward trends between 5x and 86.16x. So overall I'd say the USA is probably one of the best performing countries worldwide in terms of the coronavirus when we consider both long-term outlook and current infection rate.
Moreover, while we cant really compare absolute numbers in the case of death rate, due to the comorbidity issue I mentioned we can still evaluate that by looking at relative numbers. Essentially if we look at how quickly our medical system adapted to reduce the mortality rate since initial outbreak till now (which would normalize for comorbidities to some extent). As can be seen in the attached chart the USA has done quite well in that regard as well.
USA:
* 0.00679% infected
* 1/3 decrease (0.33x) in case rate since out of lockdown
Canada:
* 0.00565% infected (0.832x of USa)
* 9x increase since out of lockdown
UK:
* 0.0107% infected (1.57x more than USA)
* 5x increase since out of lockdown
Spain:
* 0.0306% (4.51x more than USA)
* 86.16x increase since out of lockdown
Belgium:
* 0.0227% (3.34x more than USA)
* 36.7x increase since out of lockdown
Netherlands:
* 0.0190% infected (2.8x more than USA)
* 53x increase since out of lockdown
Sweden:
* 0.00671% infected (0.988x the USA)
* 16x increase since out of lockdown
Germany
* 0.00321% infected (0.472x USA)
* 12.4x increase since lockdown
#Coronavirus #COVID #COVID-19 #USPol #Biden #Biden2020 #Trump #Trump2020 #USElection #Election #Election2020 @adrysdale @Space6host
Secondly, I'm not sure I agree with the benefit of lockdown only being to prodect ICU. It also helps prodect the countries vulnerable citizens too amongst other things.
As the for the rest of argument, its given me stuff to think about and I'll take a better look at the data, trying to capture a bigger picture rather than just number of cases. Right now, it's a busy PhD week so that time will be in the future! Thanks for taking the time!
"It also helps prodect the countries vulnerable citizens too amongst other things."
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Except it doesnt. Eventually lockdowns end, and when they do the numbers spike as if there never was a lockdown in the first place.
So not only are the most vulnerable citizens exposed just like they would have with no lock down, but because the lockdown has slowed the time to reaching limited herd immunity you have exposed them **more so** not less. Their exposure post-lockdown is equivalent to what their exposure would have been with no lockdown, so its breakeven for that part, PLUS you have added exposure for them during the lockdown period which is on top of that (even if exposure is less during that period). So their overall exposure with lockdown is more than without.
@adrysdale
Also no worries on not responding. I know the struggles! It has been a great conversation and agree or not I am happy it has remained respectful and that we both used facts and numbers to argue our perspective, not rhetoric. That is rare and enjoyable, especially when there is a difference of opinion to discuss. Nowadays it is all to rare to have a productive and enjoyable debate with a difference of opinion, so I always enjoy it when one comes around. So thanks as well.
@Space6host