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Just a little recap on coronavirus numbers for those who like to make it sound like Trump and the USA did a bad job on handling it, when in fact long-term seems we did a better job than almost any other country.
Just a side note, it is important we look at coronavirus cases and not deaths because we dont have similar comorbidities across countries. Obesity is the #1 comorbidity for coronavirus and the USA has more of that, by far, than any other country. Obviously we cant lay that blame on Trump or the government. So if we want to fairly evaluate the USA's government in handling this we have to look at the part of the equation they have control over that is case count. So lets give a good summary of that.
I will break the numbers down into two points, one to demonstrate long term outlook will be the change in case numbers since lockdown was letup in each respective country. For the most part that would be mid june to mid july for most countries. The other number we will look at is the current situation, which we will look at percentage of the population currently infected to measure that.
Literally I picked 7 random countries in europe and even included canada. The USA has beat all but two countries in terms of infection rate, canada, which is only slightly better, and germany, which has half the infection rate. The other 5 countries the USA is doing significantly better than on infection rate. More importantly though in terms of trending since lockdown the USA has significantly outperformed every single country without a single exception by a huge margin. In fact the USA is the only country showing a downward trend since lockdown was over at 1/3 increase where all other countries have seen upward trends between 5x and 86.16x. So overall I'd say the USA is probably one of the best performing countries worldwide in terms of the coronavirus when we consider both long-term outlook and current infection rate.
Moreover, while we cant really compare absolute numbers in the case of death rate, due to the comorbidity issue I mentioned we can still evaluate that by looking at relative numbers. Essentially if we look at how quickly our medical system adapted to reduce the mortality rate since initial outbreak till now (which would normalize for comorbidities to some extent). As can be seen in the attached chart the USA has done quite well in that regard as well.
USA:
* 0.00679% infected
* 1/3 decrease (0.33x) in case rate since out of lockdown
Canada:
* 0.00565% infected (0.832x of USa)
* 9x increase since out of lockdown
UK:
* 0.0107% infected (1.57x more than USA)
* 5x increase since out of lockdown
Spain:
* 0.0306% (4.51x more than USA)
* 86.16x increase since out of lockdown
Belgium:
* 0.0227% (3.34x more than USA)
* 36.7x increase since out of lockdown
Netherlands:
* 0.0190% infected (2.8x more than USA)
* 53x increase since out of lockdown
Sweden:
* 0.00671% infected (0.988x the USA)
* 16x increase since out of lockdown
Germany
* 0.00321% infected (0.472x USA)
* 12.4x increase since lockdown
#Coronavirus #COVID #COVID-19 #USPol #Biden #Biden2020 #Trump #Trump2020 #USElection #Election #Election2020 @adrysdale @Space6host
Yes I'm aware, been saying that from early on int he infection and no one believed me. Though dogs and lions have an attenuated immune response so they are at very low risk of being symptomatic and also much lower risk than humans for transfering the disease... though, then again, humans dont have the tendency to lick your face, so in practice that might even the playing ground a bit :)
@freemo @adrysdale @Space6host
lbut question is are move specie infext the mde popularized humans but we have done all study on infect species jumps this needs to be investaged more
@freemo @adrysdale @Space6host
the problem is if squirrsls beocm an isue it coud be bad or pigdins too or horses becuase tey are alway aroud humans also pigs and cows would kill the resoueces for crtain economic value like dairy which would cause more issue than ohters
Well that's not entirely true. We don't catch diseases cross species easily at all. when it happens it is rare, usually, and only occurs in special environments where such things are likely to occur.
The pigeon/swine flu for example only actually crossed over to humans because it got into something we eat and that occured in a country where there was little or no meat regulations to catch it.. Birds had the flu for a long long time and we never caught it.
@freemo @adrysdale @Space6host
dogs concern me tho every person has a dog so that means to rate of expected transfer si higher unelss the dog medically sound
@freemo @adrysdale @Space6host
yes i agree it is just people are more focused on waht the nmdea tels
First lie: in most countries the knockdown started in March and ended in May-June and not in mid June-July as you say.
You even included Sweden and claimed 16x increase since out of lockdown, but according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdowns Sweden never went in lockdown.
Get in touch with reality, USA dismissed the pandemic as an issue for MONTHS, it never did well. Maybe what you wanted to say is that they fixed many issues recently and that might explain the improvements you are claiming.
Wow you didnt even bother to read what I said did you..
For starters I claimed that the lockdown varied a great deal from country to country and in each case the numbers were picked based on when restrictions mostly eased up. so already covered the fact that not **all** countries were mid june.
Second I also explicitly stated sweden did not have a full lockdown, I devoted a whole paragraph to it. I pointed out they had a much relaxed lock down and thus had better numbers than a lot of europe. The date for them I picked was based on when restrictions eased up.
Please if your going to actually make a fool of yourself and make personal attacks on someone and be an arrogant annoying little prick in the process, at least have the common sense to bother to read (assuming you are capable) before you start spewing a your 10 year old maturity all over the thread. I dont mind people who disagree, I even welcome it, but I do expect them to act like adults.
By the way the current infection count per country, and thus the infection percentage and rate of increase, were the official government numbers in every case, so not exactly disputed figures either.
Thanks for the in depth response. I really appreciate it!
Just a couple of quick comments. I do reside in Wales but I'm not a fan of how the UK have dealt with the situation and moreover, the individual countries within the UK have dealt with it differently so its hard to get a whole "UK" picture.
Secondly, I'm not sure I agree with the benefit of lockdown only being to prodect ICU. It also helps prodect the countries vulnerable citizens too amongst other things.
As the for the rest of argument, its given me stuff to think about and I'll take a better look at the data, trying to capture a bigger picture rather than just number of cases. Right now, it's a busy PhD week so that time will be in the future! Thanks for taking the time!
"It also helps prodect the countries vulnerable citizens too amongst other things."
--
Except it doesnt. Eventually lockdowns end, and when they do the numbers spike as if there never was a lockdown in the first place.
So not only are the most vulnerable citizens exposed just like they would have with no lock down, but because the lockdown has slowed the time to reaching limited herd immunity you have exposed them **more so** not less. Their exposure post-lockdown is equivalent to what their exposure would have been with no lockdown, so its breakeven for that part, PLUS you have added exposure for them during the lockdown period which is on top of that (even if exposure is less during that period). So their overall exposure with lockdown is more than without.
Also no worries on not responding. I know the struggles! It has been a great conversation and agree or not I am happy it has remained respectful and that we both used facts and numbers to argue our perspective, not rhetoric. That is rare and enjoyable, especially when there is a difference of opinion to discuss. Nowadays it is all to rare to have a productive and enjoyable debate with a difference of opinion, so I always enjoy it when one comes around. So thanks as well.
@freemo
What?
200k deads!
And the economy gone!
@adrysdale @Space6host
The virus hit hard no doubt. But US economy fared better than most and is recovering faster than most. Sadly americas obesity problem also meant we got hit pretty hard... But no denying the long term numbers has us on top compared to many nations and the trend / long term for us looks even better.
@freemo
accusing fat people of dying for being fat is the same as accusing women who wear a short skirt for being the cause of their rape.
President Trump let americans down. He is on charge of Americans and we are fat. No angels. No indestructible. Etc.
@adrysdale @Space6host
You have got to be kidding me.. Part of me thinks that response couldnt really be in earnest.
Its not about blame.. it is a simple fact that if you are obese you have a much much higher chance of dieing of this disease than someone who isnt when you catch it. That is well accepted medical fact. It isnt about blame.
Your response is like me saying "Did you know overweight people stand a higher chance of getting heart disease and dying early".. and you replying "How date you blame fat people for dying from heart disease, it is Trumps fault!"
LOL, just wow man. By the way I also want to point out **you** are the only one referring to them as fat and using degrading language here, so if anyone has stepped out of line in how they are treating overweight people it would be you.
@freemo
It is not the same a heart disease on overweighted people (an internal condition, consequence of being unhealthy fat) than #COVID19: an external condition depending of public health policy.
Trump didn't care about the oldest, the unhealthy, etc. He recommended using bleach or a non tested drug.
Do you know what is bad for people on risk? To have contact with the virus! That is bad! And the virus @adrysdale @Space6host - 1/2
is on the streets for a lot of decisions made by the federal government.
@adrysdale @Space6host @freemo - 2/2
@adrysdale @Space6host @freemo
Trump bullied people using masks. Using masks and being Democrats is the same in some states! He bullied Biden about it just 3 days ago...
He is on favor of returning children to schools with disregard of the teachers and after being proved as a BAD IDEA with horrible results in all the countries that tried it.
The management of the pandemic in USA was bad. Horrible bad and the metrics show it.
No one is saying heart disease is the same sort of disease as COVID, so your counterargument is irrelevant.
Again the point is Obesity is a comorbidity of COVID.. If you have Obesity you stand a **much** higher chance of dying than if you arent.
That fact means if you have a country with twice the number of obese people and covid is handled equally as competently as a country with half the number of obese people, then the medical facts in the situation guarantee the country with twice the number of obese people will see a significantly higher death rate.
Those are the facts, and we change the facts. Which is why you obviously can not use death rate to compare how two countries handle covid if those two countries have significantly different rates of comorbidity.
The fact that you are even questioning this fact, which should be obvious, is concerning.
@freemo
@adrysdale @Space6host what I am saying is the the policies for COVID 19 must be specific to the country's population.
And there's not twice (because twice the overweighted) the dead compared with developed countries... There is 7x to 10x More deads!
In California the numbers are better. In San Francisco only 107 people died of #COVID19 .
Basically the health policy is good. And people follow it.
Compare with Harris County in Texas and its declared 2615 deads by #COVID19...
Of course the policy should be specific to each country, thats not really relevant. The point is no policy in the world will save overweight people from dying of COVID, you cant just policy away the fact that your population is at extremely high risk.
As for obesity rate, the USA is 4x the obesity rate of most countries in europe.
As for the dead count, in terms of rate (adjusted for the population) most of europe has a worth death rate than the USA.
Sweden, Italy, Spain, UK, and belgium, all have higher death rates per 1000 people than the USA... So yea, sorry buddy but no, the USA is doing pretty damn good, better than most of europe.
@freemo
Of course a policy can protect overweighted people, for example, if it minimize the COVID contamination in the streets... That will help.
@adrysdale @Space6host
No that wouldnt, that would do nothing **specific** to help overweight people. Such a policy would still have overweight people dying at a larger percentage than others, and such a policy would stillhave caused the USA to have significantly higher death rate than other countries that had equally effective policies in terms of number of cases.
Can you really not hear how absurd you sound right now? You are arguing that because more people die due to being overweight, even thought the USA had a lower overall death rate despite have 4x the obesity rate, and somehow that is still trumps fault that we have more obese people.
Look I welcome you to disagree with me, I always enjoy people who are willing to discuss issues, but you have to at least try to make some sense for this to be productive. It sounds like your so hell bent on the very idea USA might have done a good job your just saying anything, no matter how absurd, to try to justify that. Maybe take a minute and step back before commenting, I know you have to have better common sense than this honestly. Your arguments are off the deep end.
@freemo
The problem is I am on my phone. So I cannot write comfortable.
Fat, old, etc. Doesn't matter if the virus is not that present on the streets. They'll not die from covid if there's not covid present everywhere.
That was possible and still is if periodic isolation periods are declared from time to time.
USA could do better. And those 200k people didn't have to die. They did because lack of @adrysdale @Space6host - 1/2
policies, disinformation, declaring masks and isolation as Democrats signs, etc.
It's a "Chinese virus", isn't it? If it is here and attacks us so hard is because we let them in and don't do enough to mitigate its punishment.
No sure if Italy and Spain are good examples...
@adrysdale @Space6host @freemo - 2/2
that is completely ignorant to the situation, and the very sort of thinking that is why the USA is ahead of europe right now, that sort of thinking is why europe is seeing 5x to 85x increase in cases over the same time the USA has seen a 1/3rd reduction... its that failed logic right there that seems to be completely ignorant to the nature of epidemics and this virus in particular.
I'm just not sure if your willing to see why, or to understand why if someone explained it to you, since you seem very emotionally committed to your current thinking.
I dont mind getting into it, but again, the USA numbers right now blue europe out of the water as I've already went over, so that alone proves the point.
As has already been explained earlier in the thread, lockdowns are an emotional reaction, an attempt to lower the numbers int he short term while knowing full well the end result is more infected long-term. That is playing out to be true right now in the numbers, and it is somewhat trivial to understand why.
@freemo @adrysdale @Space6host
OKay. I have my PC now.
In Europe there is 191K deads by #COVID19 that is less than USA.
Later I go with the tendencies. But as a first approach, it does not look like USA is doing better.
And Europe has 741 million people. So USA is doing at least twice worst
As was mentioned in the outline, measuring the dead is not going to be a valid metric on a few fronts.
Most importantly you cant measure the death rate because the comorbidity distribution in the USA is significantly different than that in europe. so such a measure makes absolutely no sense.
Thats like saying a nursing home had 10 deaths in a month, and a kindergarten daycare had only 9 deaths in a month therefore the kindergarten daycare is doing better.
You cant use numbers we already covered as invalid to make an argument lest your argument also be invalid.
Also deaths in europe due to covid is 225K not 190K according to official sources
USA death count is 209K..
So again while these arent valid numbers in the least, your numbers also arent accurate, and strictly speaking USA has less deaths. But since the numbers are invalid I'm really not going to make that argument anyway.
Cool meme bro, shame it doesnt use the real numbers though and thus isn't true.
Shame too, would have been a zinger too if it were accurate.
With that said picking the three countries with the lowest covid count obviously means those countries are, indeed, doing better than any country in europe (including the UK), as well as canada, and even the USA. Kudos to them, though it helps when your an island or otherwise have extremely low population density. But even so those countries deserve some praise for their efforts for sure.
Doesn't really change the fact that the USA is doing better than most countries though. But I never said they were doing the best out of all countries either, nor would I.
I am not claiming either way which of Trump's actions resulted in the outcome we saw, if any. That would be a matter of debate, and there are plenty of things we can fault Trump with for sure (or any leader for that matter).
But the facts are facts, and at the end of the day when we look at the results, the USA did pretty ok.
@freemo @adrysdale @Space6host
here is interesting data covid has infected dogs and a lion so cross specia issa thhing