The numerical superiority of Russian forces over Ukraine on the battlefield will likely begin to decrease by the end of this year, according to American military analyst Michael Kofman.
Kofman believes that while the Kremlin continues to pressure Ukraine, suffering high levels of attrition, it is now beginning to struggle under “very significant constraints.”
“Battlefield advantage is likely to diminish as we enter this winter and look toward 2025,” said Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
However, he cautioned against expecting Russia to run out of equipment or personnel soon. Still, he believes Moscow will not be able to sustain its current pace of attack for long.
Kofman’s first explanation is that Moscow is replacing significant losses of equipment with Soviet-era weapons, but even these reserve stocks will not last indefinitely.
“Russia is depleting its Soviet-era assets, and the production rate of new equipment is quite low compared to the battlefield losses. This means that the Russian military is increasingly forced to adapt tactics to minimize losses, which also reduces their ability to achieve any operationally significant breakthroughs,” says the expert.
High payments to contract soldiers in Russia indicate that recruitment efforts are under pressure, he points out. Kofman believes that the Russian government will struggle to maintain the surge in bonuses and benefits it offers to new recruits.
“It’s clear that, at this rate of losses, Russia’s contract recruitment campaign will not be sustainable. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Russia will face a manpower shortage soon, but it’s evident they are encountering difficulties,” Business Insider quotes Kofman.
For instance, the British Ministry of Defense has estimated that the Kremlin will lose 1,000 soldiers daily during the coming winter, after suffering record daily losses in May and September.
The slow and costly pace of hostilities has consequences not only for the front lines in Ukraine but also for Russia’s wartime economy. It remains unclear how long Moscow can continue increasing its war budget.
@TheOldGuy Bro imagine if #Ukraine beats #Russia and takes it over lolllll
🇳🇱
Doubtful, but it would certainly be a huge improvement.
You are probably just a victim of the propaganda machine.. It is running pretty strong from Russia and seems to be well adopted in conservative circles which may be giving you an unfair biased perspective.
Lets be straight, Russia is where you get murdered for being gay and if you manage to survive you wind up in jail for it.. Its really hard to see Russia as the better guy compared to Ukraine when they actually treat their people with dignity and have sane laws.
@freemo @TheOldGuy Oh no I'm not saying that #Russia is better than #Ukraine, just that the improvement probably wouldn't be as "huge" as you inferred.
Well its eastern europe.. to be equally as fair Ukraine has a lot of growing to do as a nation to modernize. So your right their not exactly a thriving country either. My point is that while Ukraine isnt all that impressive on the world stage, compared to russia, at least in terms of ethics and rights, they are miles ahead.
@freemo
Aren't you the biggest purveyor of propaganda. Russia murders & jails gays - cites please.
Ukraine, rights & ethics? Zelensky won't hold elections & made himself president for life. He's outlawed opposition media & jails opposition journalists & outlawed opposition parties. He's kidnapping ppl off the streets to be slaughtered on the front lines in a war he knows can't be won. Corruption in Ukraine is so bad even NATO wont let them join.
@realcaseyrollins @TheOldGuy
Sure, I can cite that.
Source for the high (and increasing) hate crimes towards LGBTQ+ including gays:
Kondakov, Alexander (November 2021). "The influence of the 'gay-propaganda' law on violence against LGBTIQ people in Russia: Evidence from criminal court rulings". European Journal of Criminology. 18 (6): 940–959. doi:10.1177/1477370819887511. ISSN 1477-3708. S2CID 210497632.
As for citations regarding the law that will wind you up in jail for desplaying any pro LGBTQ sentiments, including being gay...well there are 10 regions in russia each with their own laws making it illegal in additional to the national law, one such region includes jail time. For a citation regarding the national law thoug, the most relevant see here:
"Russia: Federal laws introducing ban of propaganda of non-traditional sexual relationships" (PDF). Article 19. Retrieved 14 February 2014.
As for your comments about Ukraine aside from the scary language that amounts to "he drafts people", which is so silly im not even going to give it attention, can you please cite your sources that he is jailing oppositional journalists, thanks.
@freemo @ThingsArentOK @TheOldGuy
Apparently there are at least five:
I heard about that too. They have a tight grip on the local media from what I hear.
Thanks. Reviewing. Ill let you know my opinion once i have one.
@realcaseyrollins @ThingsArentOK @TheOldGuy
I only got through the mention of the first reporter.. But seems this is about ukrainian reports **in russia** being supressed. The first example was about a ukrainian reporter who wound up in occupied territory and got arrested by Russia....
@freemo @ThingsArentOK @TheOldGuy I see.
It looks like there are some instances of #Ukraine or their confederates killing reporters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_Ukraine#2010s
But usually if a reporter dies in #Ukraine it's due to crossfire or #Russia or their confederates.
So far (and perhaps its towards the end of your link) I havent seen a single example of Ukraine supressing a journalist. Out of all your links can you point me to the one case you think is most exemplary of this so i can focus on reading about that?
@ThingsArentOK @freemo @TheOldGuy
> Russia murders & jails gays - cites please.
You're saying this doesn't happen in #Russia? Isn't this like public knowledge?
I completely agree with you on corruption and authoritarianism in #Ukraine though which is why I'm saying this would be more funny than anything else.
@freemo @TheOldGuy I'm actually not sure that it would be, I hear bad things about the state of #Ukraine.
But it would be pretty funny!