DOES PEACE HAVE ANY CHANCE?
Over the coming days there will be high ranking meetings at the UN. Zelensky has presented his path to victory and his path to peace to the Americans - who are positive about the former and more sanguine about the later.
The Ukrainians expect nothing less than complete Russian withdrawal from the occupied territories. In all reality I simply don’t see how that’s going to be made to happen even if it should be the end result.
The point is you can talk all you like about peace and it will end up eventually being a negotiated one. The thing is the Russians see no need to talk, because to by utterly frank, they’re winning. On the ground they’re winning. Kursk means little to them because they know one way of another, through peace or war, they’ll get it back. All the rest of the front shows them advancing even if slowly, pressing Ukraine at almost every point.
I cannot stress enough, if Russia thinks it is winning it is never going to negotiate until Ukraine offers up an armistice. It’s that simple and it’s that blunt.
Given everything you know about Russia and their political leaders, never mind their historic intransigence through every type of regime in history, do you honestly think they’d be any different?
It’s this very intransigence that beat Napoleon and Hitler. It was the ruthlessness of Lenin that let the Germans win the war on the Eastern Front in WW1, including handing over Ukraine, so that Lenin could win the civil war. He knew the west would defeat Germany and he’d get the land back. He didn’t see losing the war to Poland in 1922, but Stalin had his revenge on the Poles in 1939 and 1944-5. They’re always willing to wait and win. It’s just who they are.
Ukraine is slowly loosing ground because of one primary fact: the West, especially the United States with its vast reserves of equipment it has barely even touched, are not supplying enough of it fast enough. Ammunition - especially the cluster shells which have now run out, even though the US supplied 1.5 million of them and has just as many in stockpiles, is not being supplied in their case. Standard 155 and 152mm ammunition is still way behind where it ideally needs to be. When Germany offers up a donation of 61,000 shells that’s around 6-7 days of use.
Across the whole war, if we want Ukraine to get into a position where it can do enough damage to Russia to make them decide they might lose and it’s time to talk, we in the West have to do far more than we’ve done and make it happen. Ukraine can’t do it alone.
Despite everything of the past three years we, The West, are still seemingly undecided if we want Ukraine to simply survive and become a shadow of its former self with a peace dictated by Russia, or to win and reassert the West, with Ukraine as part of it, stands up, will fight, will win and will not be forced by military means to give in.
Anything else is unacceptable.
How do our politicians not see that? We have to double and treble down to get it done. Yet nobody seems willing to do what’s needed, except for the few who would be next on Putin’s menu of grievances.
Time to make any choice is fast running out.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
@ukrainejournal
"USA" as word is interchangable easily for another super-power like Russia ? (USA the same or even worse?)...
@TheOldGuy
Some notes on what author said:
- Yes you're probably right they won't stand down.
- But it is kind of ironic the "they" could just as well be USA as much as it is Russia - I mean which one would you trust more?
it's almost NO DIFFERENCE or I'm saying that to find out what people can differential as positive between them because of the next point also:
- USA doesn't give a fuck about most places so the question is why would it care about Ukraine ? (from a massive shit-for-brains leadership to pebble in Europe - why even help?)
-And then continuing from that above... why would they *not* subject Ukraine to it's own shit-show subset of strategies and leveraging systems... like giving just enough to die out but just about win and then come in themselves in some way as expansion... I would not underestimate it - then it would be a rag-tag EU vs deadly USA,
In other words it's almost no help sometimes to allow the same shit-show artists to come "save the day" if they will fuck what is left that they say is saved or subject it to various pay-back schemes and conditions.
YES I'M ALL FOR FREEDOM BUT LOOK WHO USA IS BEFORE COMPLAINING ABOUT RUSSIA !
Yes look to Europe to complain - the 'hiring' of USA services or mercenaries or accepting 'gifts' is simply not a workable plan either frankly (I accept if EU doesn't care then it's the only option I'd consider taking a bullet for).
- So mostly (and I accept there is some weaving I've done here pointing to the same shit-show people) I think USA is just running both peoples into the ground and making it come to a crawling win or later will go all-in to really make sure both Ukraine and Russia have no legs to run away from their bargaining plans ...
USA is as good in as many things that Russia is - so it's like jumping from this fire into another fire. :f :nes_fire: 🏃♀️ 🔥
All comes down to money -
Some of what the author wrote I think sounded like people or USA doing the right thing... NO WAY- USA?
Sometimes those types want "the worse to happen, the worse the better as it's clearer" and for the taking.
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SUMMARY:
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One thing seems historically true, USA (and all super-powers) seem totally interchangeable as names and as not caring (like near-0 or worse using the situation for more #wars) - just land, territory, extraction of resources, total domination, 1-track mind etc...
While I'm not in the camp of Ukraine going down, I thnk the making, spending, detonating of things is also big waste of time, energy... etc
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SIDE NOTE / REAL UNITY ?
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Real unity or real understanding would be great as it's own thing to gain respect - respect of logic not just authority - something that stands sovereign itself as much as person has their own power (not shenanigans of grouping or politics covering everything meaning somehow we sort everything and everyone as money themselves.
The scamming is money itself as a #war system on people - somehow adopted by every state even though different - strange that like high streets installed and all looking the same - and knowing what it does to cultures ... Ukrane included.
The misuse of the massive cream from money "they" take.... means I prefer everyone living is being "paid for" already to be essentially for real decision -making with less man-made threats than the usual force (which would be much less without money backing everything while raping it).
What I mean is not owing life to anyone as new borns and expecting people will get busy doing more real work (I consider financial world arbitrary and virtual too back out of people's hands)/
The "Service" we get is like getting raped as cash cows anyway so just getting ride of this means less people being cheated and getting even water etc more for free to continue with much less ultimatums / rent etc and of shitty jobs wastefully paying for it all,.. really get people to make life better...
(not always killing to restart a 'peaceful' period of working against inflation, company crooks and bankers).
Ok enough on those points...
Slava .... somehow less than just war....
