Daniel Dvorkin @medigoth@qoto.org

Dipping my toe in the waters of prediction:

I will be very surprised if there is not a large, open #US ground presence in #Venezuela in the next six months, if not sooner. Maybe a significant #Chinese presence too, but that will be quieter, a la the #USSR in #Vietnam.

The funny thing is, there's a way we probably *could* install a government that would be popular enough to survive with just US support rather than #GIs bleeding out in the jungle—namely, back #Machado and give her whatever she needs to consolidate power. But #Trump is too angry about a #Hispanic woman getting the #Nobel he so clearly deserved for that ever to happen. Not to mention his crew of chest-and-Bible-thumpers who don't want to see any woman in charge of any country, ever.

So instead we'll end up keeping most of #Maduro's machinery of dictatorship in place, and supporting it against an ever-growing resistance armed with Chinese weaponry. "Advisers" in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

Tell the DJ to put Fortunate Son on repeat.

The #slipperyslope is not a #fallacy.

Proof: [gestures vaguely at everything] #QED.

I just opened a feature request on #GitHub that got assigned issue number 404. Hopefully someone will see it even so!

The idea that the #leaders of #nations at war should be off-limits is a relic of the days when #kings and noble #knights expected to be treated respectfully by their counterparts on the other side while they all cheerfully trampled #peasant #soldiers into the mud. Let it and them die.

Another addendum: like many #SF writers, I'm a bit of a #Luddite when it comes to the writing process. After decades of messing around with various word processors, these days I do my writing in #Markdown using a text editor, then convert it to Word for sharing it with the rest of the world. I'm genuinely happier that way. #Grammar checkers and the like can fuck right off.

But I'm uneasy with people who create #sciencefiction rejecting the *idea* that #AI might be useful for #creative endeavors. I don't yet know what a good use case would be, and I doubt I'll ever want #ChatGPT or one of its descendants to write a draft for me. Making it my work would feel like editing someone else's manuscript, even if it's good—which of course current AI writing isn't, but that could change. I just don't want people who think about the future professionally to assume that we'll never advance past the present.

Jamming the two together: I'm alternately amused and annoyed by how much #ScienceFiction has #humans doing things like #flying #spaceships, but relegates #medical care to #robots. Uh ...

As both a #medic and a #writer, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the ethical bar for #fiction #writing is *far* lower than the bar for #medicine. Reading a bad story may make you feel like you've wasted an irretrievable chunk of your life, but it's very unlikely to land you in the morgue. So the idea that there might be ethical uses for #AI in medicine but not in writing seems rather strange to me.

"Well, *I* thought it was funny."

— my tombstone, probably

Speaking as someone whose entire adult life has been spent keeping people alive, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Lillian #Bonsignore knows a hell of a lot more about saving lives than Elon #Musk.

Hello, #Republicans.

#Democrats have been telling you for months that we don’t care if #Clinton is in the #Epstein files. If he raped kids, he should pay the same penalty as anyone else. But I guess y’all have your talking points and you are by God going to stick with them.

You know as well as we do that #Trump is all over the redacted parts. Every time you pretend otherwise, you’re announcing to the world that you’re just fine with pedos as long as they’re on your side. For some of you, it’s a selling point.

We see you, and we won’t forget.

===

Feel free to quote, share, or copy and paste if you find it useful.

Texting is fine for short communications, to be clear. But anything more than a few sentences is actively painful.

Also, that 30-minute video you want me to watch could and should have been an essay. If there's no transcript, fuggedaboudit.

Something you may not know about me: I dislike reading long-form content on my phone, or really doing anything on my phone more than necessary. E.g. if you want to have an in-depth conversation with me, please send me a direct message rather than texting.

Hey, it was better than spilling a bunch of jewel boxes all over the passenger seat floor and leaning down to fumble through them while going 80 mph down the interstate! Which I, uh, may have done a time or two.

Sword in one hand, latte in the other, combat boots on both feet. It's a thing.

#Knowledge is #justified #true #belief. That definition is about 2500 years old, and although #philosophers have been trying to come up with a better definition ever since, no one has. All claimed counterexamples are #sophistry.

A lot of my fellow #scientists and/or #atheists have trouble with the word "belief" because they associate it with faith—which in turn can be defined as belief *without* justification, or whose truth is unknowable. But it's really a lot simpler than that.

If I walk inside dripping wet, and someone asks me if it's raining, and I say it is because I've just been out in it, then I'm stating my belief. What you believe is anything you can honestly affirm if someone asks you, "Is such-and-such true?"

Belief can be simple and immediate or complicated and long-term. It can be trivial or profound. It can be true or false, justified or unjustified, testable or untestable. The honesty, that's the key. Knowledge, a proper subset of belief, has a much higher standard.

The above is an extended way of saying that if someone begins a loaded question with an aggressive, sarcastic "Did you know ..." then you are amply justified in truly believing they're full of shit.

I'm pleased to announce that Becca now has her own storefront. As well as the #calendar, there are now some lovely #dragonfly address labels, with more of her amazing #wildlife #photography to come. If there's anything you'd like to see, let me know and I'll be happy to pass the request along!

https://www.zazzle.com/store/r_e_lee_photography

Points for originality, though, I guess. I wonder how he gets along with his fellow #masculinity-obsessed manboys who go gaga for #Viking-themed shit?

"Being a male doesn't make you a #MAN !!
MEN believe in #God, its a prerequisite to being called a MAN.
You have a #Effeminate #heathen male not a man 💯🙏✝️"

Well, there it is, the stupidest thing I'll read on the internet all day. Hopefully.

Unashamed plug: Becca Lee, my beloved wife and an amazing #wildlife #photographer, finally has her work up for sale. If you're looking for a 2026 #calendar, this would be an *excellent* choice. 🙂

https://www.zazzle.com/things_with_wings_a_wildlife_photography_calendar-256547422419714113

@lemgandi Yes. Maybe I should have been a little more specific. 😀