Daniel Dvorkin @medigoth@qoto.org

#Ukraine now controls something between 500 and 1000 square kilometers of #Russia. The lower estimate is what can be rigorously confirmed by external sources, and the high end is the claim of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.

Most likely the #MoD is being ... generous in its use of "control," at least in press releases. But I bet they have a good idea, internally, of where they can put and *keep* boots on the ground. It turns out you can do wonders with a functioning military when front-line commanders can tell their superiors what's actually going on, instead of what those superiors want to hear.

Of course that's very small compared to the amount of Ukraine occupied by Russia, and infinitesimal compared to the amount of Russia occupied by the enemies of the Russian people. It's still a hell of an accomplishment.

Suppose the #US invaded #Mexico, again, and this time failed embarrassingly to take Mexico City in the early days of the war. Then for over two years, US forces could only occupy Baja California and a strip of land south of the Rio Grande, not even along the river's full length. And *then*, Mexican forces took Laredo and Galveston, threatened Houston, and made a serious reconnaissance in force toward the #Alamo just for old times' sake.

I guess the people who use "#invasion" rhetoric for immigration would pretty much freak the hell out—like I'm quite sure a whole lot of Russians are doing right now. Somebody put on popcorn.

@andysocial.com Golly.

#Treason doth sometimes prosper, even when we dare call it treason.

> Fewer Americans today consider childhood #vaccines important, with 40% saying it is extremely important for parents to have their children vaccinated, down from 58% in 2019 and 64% in 2001. There has been a similar decline in the combined "extremely" and "very important" percentage, which was 94% in 2001 but sits at 69% today.

> The declining belief in the importance of vaccines is essentially confined to #Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, as the views of #Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have changed little over the past 24 years. Twenty-six percent of Republicans and Republican leaners -- half as many as in 2019 -- believe it is extremely important for parents to get their children vaccinated. In the initial Gallup poll on vaccinations, Republicans and Republican leaners (62%) held similar views to Democrats and Democratic leaners (66%); the two groups now differ by 37 percentage points.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/648308/far-fewer-regard-childhood-vaccinations-important.aspx

I may, eventually, make my peace with much of the madness of the last thirty years. Honestly I don't expect it: I probably won't live long enough to see most of the damage undone. But it's at least *possible*. If the upcoming election and all the others go as well as they possibly can, if the Republican Party purges itself of the cult, if the cultists themselves come back to some semblance of reality ... yes. It could happen.

#Antivax, and those who enabled its rise from the grave, I will never forgive. Not now, not in a decade, not in a generation, not in a century or a millennium or the lifetime of the universe.

🎼Take back what I paid
For another #couchfucker in a motorcade ...

This goes in the same bin as #logical and #rational in my frequently used funny-sexy-cool test. Only other people can decide if you're #funny or #sexy or #cool. Not only do you not get to make that judgement about yourself, it's a terrible mistake to try—because the more you announce to people that you are that thing, the less likely they are to see you that way. Show, don't tell.

Many desirable characteristics, including #logic and #rationality and #empathy, work the same way. I *try* to be empathetic, and as far as I can tell from the reactions of the people around me, I succeed most of the time. And I trust many of them to tell me if I'm being a self-centered jerk. But being "an #empath" isn't an inborn characteristic. It's a *behavior*—and like all good behaviors, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

On a more personal note: senior #NCOs can make or break a unit. Good ones take care of their subordinates and do wonders for #morale, while bad ones terrorize #enlisted personnel and a fair number of the junior #officers, sending morale into the toilet. I'm reasonably sure #Walz was in the former category, and I hope people who served under him speak out against the #swiftboating.

This was inevitable, I suppose.

@FeralRobots And I suspect they won't find the "taking back" nearly as easy as looting, raping, and murdering Ukrainian civilians.

#Ukrainian forces are confirmed to have taken at least 100 square kilometers of #Russian territory (link below) and they're steadily advancing as of the last reports. In *Kursk* Oblast, a name to conjure with.

This isn't a cross-border #raid. This is a solid, well-thought-out #offensive to bring the war—finally—to the #enemy. Which isn't the only way to win a #war, but it's probably one of the most effective.

I doubt they'll stay there long-term. #Ukraine has been pretty clear from the start of the war that they have no interest in any part of #Russia, including those which were historically part of Ukraine. You know, because they're not #orcs.

But they do want *all* of their country back, and this gives them an unparalleled chance of getting exactly that. Devastate Russian supply lines, take a bunch of prisoners, and give complacent civilians reason to doubt Putin.

With this and the overwhelmingly positive reaction to #Harris' choice of #Walz, I feel like the war is going pretty well on both fronts. Слава Україні, or as we say in English: fascists, go fuck yourselves.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2024

@john they're so weird. 😛

No doubt the #Trump #campaign had ready-made talking points for each of #Harris' possible #VP picks. Their first line of attack against #Walz is that he will "unleash Hell on Earth."

If you want to take someone who radiates "regular guy" like Walz does and turn him into a badass? That's *exactly* the way to do it. Thanks, Donnie! Good job!

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4813429-trump-campaign-harris-vp-pick-tim-walz/

#Walz was my second choice, after #Kelly, but I think he's a solid pick. #Shapiro would have been a mistake. Countering #Trump and #Vance's fake #populism with the real thing is a great idea.

I'm reasonably sure #Harris doesn't want to be the kind of #President who shoves the #VP in a broom closet, to be pulled out only when needed. If I'm right, then picking someone she likes and can work with personally was really important. Of course I have no idea how the various contenders' personalities mesh with hers, but if she chose Walz on that basis, it should minimize any friction for both the election and the administration.

Also, let's be blunt here: #Obama needed #Biden to reassure older white voters, and Harris may need Walz for the same reason. It sucks, but demographics still matter. A lot.

Oh yeah, don't overlook the fact that Walz was the one who brought "#weird" into the national conversation. That has to have earned him a few points. 😀

About #weird.

For most adults, most of the time, weird is at most a mild insult, and for many adults it's a compliment. "Yeah, I'm weird. You're weird. We're all weird here. All the best people are, you know." That kind of thing.

But for many *many* children, it's vicious. On the elementary school playground, weird is about the worst thing you can be. It lasts well beyond that, too, at least into high school. Even young adults—which I mean literally, old enough to drive and vote and get married—are often pretty exclusionary on the basis of perceived weirdness. I was one of those kids, and I bet a lot of people reading this were too.

So yeah, now that it's suddenly everywhere, *adult* adults calling each other weird and meaning it to cut ... I do feel a certain amount of childhood PTSD climbing out of the depths of my brain. Decent people accept that there are some insults we should never use, no matter what our opponents call us, and I kind of want this to be one of them.

I'll deal. Because I know that whatever dim ancient terrors it stirs up, memories of ostracism and beating and worse things I won't go into here, for its current targets it's scary as hell *right now*.

Bullies take it as an article of faith that their victims must never use their own tactics against them. Violence of the tongue and the fist are the exclusive province of those at the top of the ladder. The weirdos down on the bottom rungs ... how *dare* we? Don't we know our role is always to be the stepped on, never those who step?

Oh, we can call them hateful and cruel and evil. Those are insults, but they're also attributions of power. Let us hate them, so long as we fear.

Weird is powerless. Weird is helpless. Weird is the little kid at the corner of the playground crying because no one wants them on the team. Weird is tears of futile rage.

Victims fighting back *effectively* is their worst nightmare.

They go low, we go right down to the bone. Hateful and cruel and evil are clumsy punches, easily dodged and laughed at before they close in for the kill. Weird, of all things, has turned out to be the hidden razor blade, the cut that doesn't even sting until they see the blood on the ground.

You know, they're really weird that way.

NASA will have to wait until after the closing ceremonies.

Dvorkin's Somethingth Law: the less people know about any particular job, the more likely they are to believe that it can be effectively replaced by #AI.

*Any* job. Those who are adamant that AI is antithetical to creativity, and any #writing or #painting or #music that has ever been touched by AI is automatically crap, but unquestioningly accept that #STEM jobs involving deep knowledge and technical skill and professional judgement can be done as well or better by a 'bot ... I see you.

We haven't seen either of the #yard #cats, Tux and Neo, for a few days. The cat food we put out is still getting eaten, and we're *reasonably* sure it's cats eating it rather than raccoons, because the plates are still in place when the food is gone. Raccoon raids, which we know well from previous experience, usually aren't that neat. But I'd feel better if I could actually see the cats eating it.

I've bragged a lot about our cat-rescuing record, and with good reason. Everyone at the #shelters we worked with was frankly amazed that we brought in four wild-born litters with no deaths, injuries, or disease. Throughout the #Denver metro area, there are a whole bunch of households with happy, healthy cats who are there because we made it happen. The cats must remember dimly if at all, and the humans will never know their stories. *We* know, and that's enough.

But we're not perfect. A few—all adults, never any of the #kittens born here—have slipped away. Too wild, too cautious, perhaps in some cases too abused. They come and eat the food we provide, seem to be responding to our friendly overtures, and then leave as silently as they arrived. All we can do is wish them well, and hope they found their way to some kind of forever home.

Some patients die. Some friendships end. Some dreams fail. Sometimes you know why, sometimes you don't. There is no perfection to be found anywhere in the universe.

I just really hope these two go on the win list. I'm selfish that way.

And to be clear, I *like* #emojis (or #emoticons, as we called them in my day, grumble mutter snore). I think they're a clever and useful way to convey tone that doesn't always come through in text any other way. But the specific ways some of them get used are ... unintentionally revealing.

🤡 is right up there with 🤣 as a way to announce to the world that you have nothing worthwhile to say, on any subject, ever.

This meme has crossed my feed in a number of places lately. I'm sharing it for debate, not for approval or agreement. If you share from my post, please leave my commentary intact. This has been a public service announcement.

#Scientism is very nearly a straw man. I'm willing to concede that there are *some* people who treat #science like a religion, but their numbers are tiny and they have zero influence on the conduct of research AFAICT. Anti-science #zealots who come up with memes like this, OTOH, are numerous and disturbingly influential.

It's also amusing how the meme assumes #epistemology is a gold standard against which other intellectual pursuits must be measured. The author assigns to #philosophy the same unquestionable authority he accuses others of assigning to science.

So I'll stake my claim: scientific #methodology—in the literal sense of the study of methods—has done more to illuminate "how we know what we know" in the last couple of centuries than formal epistemology has done in millennia. If this be scientism, make the most of it.