@cjd that's a prediction, not a method
it seems that the severity of any given crisis is secondary upon the assumption that it is used for a political excuse to arrogate power
you then have two perspectives:
a) what is the danger of a given crisis as such?
b) what room for manouevre do the optics of said crisis allow bad actors?
tbh both seem academic if you simply focus on securing comms/money supply and personal safety/security - yet that's also a recipe for civic decay as it sort of precludes any form of politics and cedes that realm to those who would abuse it