@cjd over the last few years I've found myself teetering about various states of conspiratorial thinking - there must be a method for decision making here and I'm not sure where to begin
@cjd how useful is "intent of others" on a global scale? or do we take the talebian skeptical empiricist route and focus on local exposure?
both seem a bit flaky outside of their domain, although the later seems far more robust
@cjd that's a prediction, not a method
it seems that the severity of any given crisis is secondary upon the assumption that it is used for a political excuse to arrogate power
you then have two perspectives:
a) what is the danger of a given crisis as such?
b) what room for manouevre do the optics of said crisis allow bad actors?
tbh both seem academic if you simply focus on securing comms/money supply and personal safety/security - yet that's also a recipe for civic decay as it sort of precludes any form of politics and cedes that realm to those who would abuse it
Therefore severity is inversely proportional to pressure put on bad actors.