Tavo

Why is hard to find the seasonality or pattern behind COVID-19 waves? One possibility is the lack of a meaningful coordinate system.

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Tavo

For example, if we look at the movement of mercury through time we will end up observing also the retrograde movement of the planet. That's due to our position relative to the planet.

youtube.com/watch?v=hLkQhaFOT5

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Tavo

If we position ourselves in the sun, then we will see the normal movement of all the planets. Luckily neural networks can be used to retrieve a meaningful coordinate system from complex data sources.

youtu.be/KmQkDgu-Qp0?t=618

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Tavo

In the case of COVID-19, the data source will be the genomic sequences obtained through genomic surveillance.

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Tavo
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Training a VAE with a custom sequence representation sports the different genomes by a temporal variable. Currently, the best fit is the sunshine duration rate of change. A proxy measure of the rate of change of solar radiation at a specific location.

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Tavo

If we plot the cases using the sunshine duration as a measure of time the different waves are located at the extremes of the axis. But if we look at how the sunshine duration changes specific rates appear to constrain the duration of the waves

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Tavo

Also by approaching polar latitudes the frequency of those periods increases.

1
Tavo

Would you like to know more?
tavoglc.substack.com

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