Why is hard to find the seasonality or pattern behind COVID-19 waves? One possibility is the lack of a meaningful coordinate system.

For example, if we look at the movement of mercury through time we will end up observing also the retrograde movement of the planet. That's due to our position relative to the planet.

youtube.com/watch?v=hLkQhaFOT5

If we position ourselves in the sun, then we will see the normal movement of all the planets. Luckily neural networks can be used to retrieve a meaningful coordinate system from complex data sources.

youtu.be/KmQkDgu-Qp0?t=618

In the case of COVID-19, the data source will be the genomic sequences obtained through genomic surveillance.

Training a VAE with a custom sequence representation sports the different genomes by a temporal variable. Currently, the best fit is the sunshine duration rate of change. A proxy measure of the rate of change of solar radiation at a specific location.

Follow

If we plot the cases using the sunshine duration as a measure of time the different waves are located at the extremes of the axis. But if we look at how the sunshine duration changes specific rates appear to constrain the duration of the waves

Also by approaching polar latitudes the frequency of those periods increases.

Sign in to participate in the conversation
Qoto Mastodon

QOTO: Question Others to Teach Ourselves
An inclusive, Academic Freedom, instance
All cultures welcome.
Hate speech and harassment strictly forbidden.