uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources!
There we go, sent both the full chant (without repetitions, I just picked the IMO clearest sounding instance) and single words (cut from the full chant). I requested 20 answers for every data piece, which should be enough for reasonable evidence (unless the responses are atrocious quality). I expect some people will be familiar with the full chant, so answers which correctly identify the given name present there are weaker evidence. With the single words this problem should be somewhat mitigated.
Still hoping I'm not theonly one hearing "Hang my pants!" when ignoring the context.
Few days ago, I read a write-up titled No one knows how much the government can borrow
The authors basically argues the following:
Now I am not an economist (moreover, I am rather suspicious of that discipline in general), but this topic interests me. The other day, I had a conversation with a friend who is very worried about the public debt to GDP ration of Italy and how it can negatively affect EU, Eurozone and specifically northern-EU countries (because they will pay for the lazy Italian pensions, right?). So the question arises: How much debt/GDP can Italy afford? Where is a breaking point? And what options different stakeholders in the game will have once a default of Italy is triggered?
Since in the news everybody has an opinion on this, I asked around the Intertubes and among my smart friends, naively thinking that this must be a well researched topic in that high profile discipline. After all, maybe I am suspicious of economists, but I do treat most of their work with high respect. Well, my inquiries yielded nothing useful.
So here I am asking for pointers to useful literature on the topic. What do we know about how much a country like Italy can borrow before it ends up in trouble?
Software development topics I’ve changed my mind on after 6 years in the industry - Blogomatano
Mostly obvious to anybody long enough in the business. Still refreshing that somebody took time to put it together for later reference when a junior team member comes up with their “next great idea they can’t let go”.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources!
Next I used this: https://github.com/facebookresearch/flashlight/tree/master/flashlight/app/asr/tutorial
It did not detect any words in the first clip and the word "one" in both the other clips. This suggests it again was picking up on noise different from the chant. It also didn't detect anything on the full chant.
Finally I tried Vosk. Did not detect anything on any file.
Welp, MTurk it is. But not today.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
Oh, and I did the cutting from audacity, aiming from the CLI would have been 面倒くさい .
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
tl;dr Did not help.
The first word is recognized as "oh", the second as "five", the last as "but added". These are so nonsensical (especially the last one) that I believe they provide no evidence one way or another ("five" kinda sounds like "Mike"? pfffft), except for julius being terrible at transcribing chants. _Maaaybe_ this is tiny evidence towards 3., since a chant that's incomprehensible to programs might also be incomprehensible to humans.
I'll try at least one more software of this kind, but at this point I believe mturk will be necessary.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
# Test 2
Apparently speech-to-text is something only professionals usually do, because the tools I managed to find are not especially easy to use. For now I managed to get julius, followed instructions on its GitHub substituting the file I wanted for the test file. It needed to be converted as follows:
```
ffmpeg -i chant.aac -ar 16000 -map_channel 0.0.0 chantL.wav -ar 16000 -map_channel 0.0.1 chantR.wav
```
The two channels were actually indistingiushable as far as I (and julius btw) can tell. Unfortunately all it recognized was "details had", which means it probably also picked up some random person talking, treating the chant as background noise.
I'll try cutting the file into smaller bits (bit per word, where I think they are most clear), since I will need to do this for further steps anyway, and check whether this helps.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
Well, that ended up silly. YT managed to autogenerate captions, but not for the chant, but for some barely audible person talking close to the person recording. And all the words it identified were "el bote no". Waiting for Q theories how this proves these were Mexican antifa who entered the capitol by ship and had problems escaping.
At least this is a very clear inconclusive result. I'll continue tomorrow with the other tests, but the odds of me needing to use actual money on this are rising.
Raczej zostanę tu na dłużej, więc i ja się przedstawię. Moje główne zainteresowania, w tym zawodowe to #dostępność, zwłaszcza cyfrowa #accessibiity. Książki SF i historyczne, a coraz częściej także faktu. W muzyce zatrzymałem się zasadniczo w latach 70-tych: #Pink #Floyd, #Genesis, "Crimson "King, #Yes. Ostatnio odkrywam hiphop, chociaż raczej ten sprzed 20 lat. Z nowych #Bedoes i #OSTR. Uwielbiam nowoczesne technologie, postępy w rozwoju #AI, społeczne aspekty sieci społecznościowych. Mam żonę i dwójkę dzieci w wieku szkolnym. Od urodzenia mieszkam w Warszawie, z trzyletnią przerwą na #Andrychów. Pracowałem głównie w organizacjach pozarządowych i na ich rzecz. Jednak ostatnie półtora roku spędziłem w Ministerstwie Cyfryzacji, w którym rok temu zostałem naczelnikiem wydziału. Teraz pracuję w firmie szkoleniowej. Uff... #introductions
And the first post... ah, just reading him again makes me very emotional. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/still-alive
And everything in the world is suddenly back on track. Well, at least it feels this way to me, in practice this might be _slightly_ exaggerated.
AAAA, SCOTT IS BACK!!! https://astralcodexten.substack.com/
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
On second look, if I'm understanding the UI correctly it generated captions already, but they are _empty_. There is a warning it might not generate proper captions if there are multiple people speaking, so maybe that's a problem. That would make the results inconclusive again. Oh well, I can wait just to make sure before declaring that.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
# Test 1
Let's document this one properly.
## Preparation
Downloaded the video using `youtube-dl`.
Extracted the relevant part of the sound, from the moment it becomes clear (IMO) to when the video cuts to another part of the crowd.
```
ffmpeg -i Rioters\ chant\ \'hang\ Mike\ Pence\'\ as\ they\ breach\ Capitol-ba0UR7gITrU.mp4 -vn -acodec copy chant.aac
```
Created a video out of the sound file with a irrelevant name and the least political picture I could find on short notice (a drawing of a mathematical pun in Polish).
```
ffmpeg -loop 1 -y -i ../kurakLematowskiegoZorna.jpg -i chant.aac -shortest -acodec copy -vcodec libx264 sillyTestVideo.avi
```
Uploaded the result to YT, as of now there are no auto-generated captions present, but the instructions suggest this might take a while.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
# Test 0
No captions on the original video. Not a huge disappointment, it wouldn't have been strong evidence anyway.
Before I get to Test 1, I wanted to point out that if it correctly reconstructs the given name present in the chant this would be _weaker_ evidence of whatever gets recognized, because it might suggest the captioning system recognized the chant and assigned known captions to it (I don't know whether anything like that actually happens). Something like "Hang my pants!" (which is actually what I heard before I corrected for context) would be stronger evidence. Thankfully this won't be an issue in Test 2.
uspol, doubting one's sanity, empiricism, wasting resources?
So yesterday I ended up in a situation whereI was in disagreement about what I thought I could clearly hear in a video. Since it sounded perfectly clear to me, and the topic of the related discussion was politically charged, _and_ I have no reason to doubt the other participants honesty about what they say they are hearing, this is pretty concerning. I see three options:
1. I am so influenced by propaganda my basic senses are broken.
2. The above, but for the other participant.
3. This specific video is an auditory case of blue/black vs white/gold dress.
I think the odds are about 5/80/15. I kind of hope it's 3 though, it would mean the propaganda is not strong enough to wrap the minds of intelligent people that badly. If it is 1, I obviously need to at least make a drastic change in the media I am consuming, and probably re-evaluate a lot of stuff.
This toot is mostly a pre-commitment, so that I follow up on my attempt to settle this. My plan is as follows, mostly in order of effort needed:
0. Look at the auto-generated captions on the YT video. If this confirms what I hear this would be _extremely weak_ evidence against 1. There might not even be auto-captions enabled for the video and I am not sure if manual captions can be distinguished from automatic ones.
1. Extract the crucial part of the sound from the video and re-upload it to YT with no real visuals attached and no suggestive title. Check the auto-captions there. This could be weak to moderate evidence for any of the above.
2. Same but with a different system than YT. I'll probably pick a couple options from this page: https://fosspost.org/open-source-speech-recognition/ . They all would be weak to moderate evidence for any of the above, in aggregate they are strong if in agreement.
3. Use Mechanical Turk to ask people about what they hear. **If anyone knows a reasonable non-amazon alternative, let me know.** This would be strong evidence towards something, with the possibility of bias due to people being familiar with the content.
4. Same as above, but cut the audio into separate words to limit bias.
If too many of the steps fail (producing no reasonable output) I can fall back on using the single words to ask friends who are hopefully unfamiliar with the context, but this would be kind of weak. I might skip some later steps if previous steps produce sufficient agreement or if they turn out to be too expensive (I don't really know the rates on mturk...).
Crucially, what my specific claims about what I clearly hear are (which are incompatible with what the other person hears), in order of how confident I am of them:
1. The second word starts with an 'm', not a 'w'.
2. The first word ends with a consonant, most likely an 'ng' sound.
3. The first word starts with 'ha'.
4. The second word starts with a 'my' sound.
This might take a couple of days...
So a few days ago I said I wanted to talk a bit more about the worldview behind that little book of 1980s lesbian feminist cartoons I have. Because it’s the kind of feminism I remember from when I was a student, and it’s the kind of feminism so many TERFs and their allies in the U.K. started with.
I’ll start with some scans...
Kadaif is a dessert made of strips of dough with crushed nuts, covered in syrup.
It's sweet, tasty, and delicate; just like your infrastructure if you don't use 2FA.
Programmer and researcher,. Ended up working with all the current buzzwords: #ai #aisafety #ml #deeplearning #cryptocurrency
Other interests include #sewing, being #lesswrong, reading #hardsf, playing #boardgames and omitting stuff on lists.
Oh, and trans rights, duh.
Header image by @WhiteShield@livellosegreto.it .
Heheh, gentoo, heh, nonbinary, heheheh... I'm so easily amused sometimes.