This is my new prediction:
Before the end of this year, we will have evidence that at least one relevant person or organisation with an anti-bitcoin agenda in the short term (ill-)advised the Salvadorean government or their contractors, or actively worked on this new legislation or its technical implementation, with the goal of damaging the reputation of #bitcoin, causing a price drop, or delaying/preventing endorsement or adoption by other governments or by big companies.
This could be (eg): a financial regulator or watchdog in a developed country with an interest in preserving the status quo, an investment fund trying to groom the market before going all in, a “whale” who is short (even privately) on BTC, a large bank with an interest in boycotting, some resourceful think tank or non-profit with a strong conservative or progressive bent, etc.
@tripu wouldnt surprise me if this was the case, though im not sure it will necessarily surface with public evidence.
@tripu The whole thing didn't start with some corporate or government advisers. It started with a grassroots community effort in El Zonte ("Bitcoin Beach"), and a bitcoin-backed app used for USD-to-USD(C/T) remittances (Strike). Almost a quarter of SV's GDP is coming in via remittance payments, while the majority of people do not have bank accounts, sometimes traveling by bus for hours on end to the next WU office.
Where exactly in this story does the shady corporate advisor fit in?
@tripu The people working on the implementation had to necessarily be people from within the bitcoin community, because nobody would even be able to learn enough about both bitcoin and Lightning Network to make this happen within their crazy time limit of just 90 days.
@tripu ... You can hear from a lot of the implementors in various community podcasts. It's also not just the government implementing via Chivo wallet. The larger companies aren't using the government app, but are integrating directly in their own systems via providers, like e.g. OpenNode. Here's one such example:
“Where exactly in this story does the shady corporate advisor fit in?”
I don’t know. I don’t have certainty, it’s only reasonable suspicion given the results I’ve seen so far, and the alignment of some incentives.
In your other toot you say that
“people from within the bitcoin community [had] to make this happen within their crazy time limit of just 90 days.”
I would ask: who exactly is “they” in “their crazy time limit”? Who had an interest in rushing such a risky, complex, nation-wide rollout? #Bukele for selfish PR/electoral reasons? Him alone?
Yes, pretty much IMO. He doesn't have much time left to implement groundbreaking changes while in office. The implementation was actually not overly complex and based on existing software, and the risks aren't really that big. It's mostly just about payments, and if they fail, then so be it. Just revert to USD for single failed payments and that's it.
@tripu It's not like their country or population is large, or like everybody would immediately pay with bitcoin/LN.
@tripu I have implemented a bitcoin custody solution with HW wallet support for a banking startup on contract in the past, so I speak from experience regarding the "not overly complex" part. And that was a couple of years ago. So much software available now.
@tripu ... Another aspect: as it's a legal tender/currency now, you don't have to implement all the accounting overhead that companies in other countries have to do when transacting in it. Also a huge time saver.
I take your word about rollout not being that complex (I don’t know the technical details).
“The risks aren’t really that big. It’s mostly just about payments, and if they fail, then so be it. Just revert to USD for single failed payments and that’s it.”
That’s the thing. If this is not a clear success, it’ll be dishonestly used as a cautionary tale and an embarrassing mistake made by the #crypto community at large.
If there is low adoption in #ElSalvador, or a few cases of governmental/contractor corruption, or a few citizens complain about lost keys or lost funds… unfair as it will be, #bitcoin slanderers and #MSM will exploit it to their advantage, and the masses will draw the conclusion that #BTC is a scam, too risky, or not ready yet.
That’s why I’m concerned about the PR consequences of this hasty experiment, widely advertised by a country that does not even qualify as a flawed democracy.
@tripu maybe this could be a worst case scenario but bitcoin will stand up always. Regular case would be just to hold and dca this till petro gets lost on his way to hell
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