中國修改反間諜法可能令外商卻步,從而對經濟雪上加霜:
"Some foreign business executives say they worry the rewriting of the espionage law means that many topics, ranging from the status of Taiwan to China’s human rights record to technology such as semiconductors, are now becoming off limits in discussions with their Chinese counterparts."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-ratchets-up-pressure-on-foreign-companies-524b958e
"特別令人關注的,是取用「萬得資訊技術股份有限公司」(Wind Information Co)的數據也受到限制。萬得是中國一個非常重要的數據庫,公司位在上海,其經濟和金融數據被中外分析師和投資者廣泛使用。
有西方研究員及宏觀分析師表示,隨著中國日前修訂「反間諜法」,擴大其適合範圍,很多外國智庫、研究公司及非金融實體也發現不能延長訂閱萬得的數據庫,而萬得形容這涉及「遵從」的問題。"
WSJ對萬得限制非中國用戶取用數據內容的進一步報導:
“Wind aggregates official data from local finance bureaus, housing departments and statistics bureaus as well as buying third-party data from private companies. It has signed agreements with exchanges, index companies, brokerages, overseas financial market data providers such as Tullett Prebon Information and Chinese government-run clearinghouses such as China Central Depository & Clearing.”
現在輪到廣告傳播業外商了嗎...
"報導指,群邑是全球最大的媒體購買和策畫機構之一,擁有42000名員工,去年的全球媒體銷售額,即向客戶收取的費用達600億美元。該企業的年收入約佔WPP集團140億英鎊總收入的三分之一。中國是WPP集團的第四大市場,也是其在嚴峻的全球廣告市場中實現增長的重要來源。群邑是WPP集團全資擁有的媒體購買和策畫機構。"
外資諮詢開始做調整以應對中國國安法:
"Capvision said earlier this month that it overhauled its internal operating systems to comply with China’s national-security laws."
中國用來殺雞儆猴的方式:
"侯男在與雅各多次會面後,雅各拿出一份協議書,邀請侯擔任該公司諮詢專家,並承諾依照提供的情資,每次支付600至700美元。隨後兩人便多次會面,由雅各向侯提問,侯男也因此向雅各提供大量資訊。"
舊金山的拜習會除了緩和關係外也可能有較低層級的實質議題要解決:
"What China might accept in exchange for prisoners, current and former U.S. officials say, is far less obvious than with nations such as Russia and Iran that have freed Americans detainees in clear-cut deals. They say the answer could be honoring a Chinese request for the U.S. to hand over certain people wanted on criminal charges there or making an adjustment to American policy that is unrelated to justice issues."
拜習會被當成減壓工具~
"她列舉面對中共威脅的「五大方針」,第一,美國及其盟友都要加強對中共的嚇阻,讓習近平了解動武必須付出很高的經濟和內政代價;第二,強化民主國家的合作與聯盟,「當中國過度擴張,大家才能有志一同推回去」。
佛洛諾伊接著表示,第三則是從國家層級打造多元供應鏈,降低對單一市場的依賴,抵禦中國的經濟脅迫作爲,避免成為因應端的弱點;第四,持續推動人工智慧、量子科學等客科技創新力。
她強調,第五個方針是「維持與中國的溝通管道」,以美國而言,「拜習會」年底登場,可透過面對面對面談話,清楚表態立場與底線,對話並不代表妥協,也可降低產生衝突的風險。"
外界預期拜習會是緩衝墊而非推進器:
"美國外交關係協會(CFR)中國研究資深研究員張彥(Ian Johnson)撰文分析,台灣、打擊類鴉片止痛劑芬太尼(fentanyl)、以色列與巴勒斯坦武裝團體哈瑪斯(Hamas)之戰、因應氣候變遷是「拜習會」4大焦點議題。"
這次大選則是拜習會裡台灣議題的焦點:
"Administration officials have largely avoided detailing how Mr. Biden plans to bring up those issues with Mr. Xi, but said the president would address other concerns, including noninterference in the election in Taiwan.
政府官员在很大程度上避免详细说明拜登计划如何向习近平提出这些问题,但表示总统将谈及其他关切,包括不干涉台湾选举。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/usa/20231115/biden-xi-china-apec/dual/
美中各自對台灣的主張立場:
[ 法新社援引美国官员的说法,拜登在与习会谈中要求中方“尊重台湾选举进程”,在峰会前,美方一直怀疑中方会干扰台湾总统选举。
习近平则要求美国“停止武装台湾”,并称“统一是不可避免的”。新华社稿件这样表述:“停止武装台湾……,中国终将统一,也必然统一。”]
米國繼續務實中國繼續大外宣的角色扮演:
"黎寶文指出,對美方而言,「追求對話,減低誤判」是美國作為印太強權的責任義務,避免中美戰略競爭轉變為軍事衝突。因此,美方今年已多次派遣部長級官員訪問中國,美方的邏輯十分清楚,即「該對抗時就對抗,該對話時就對話」。
但對中國而言,黎寶文認為,拜習會是輿論戰與操作政治形象的機會,中國不在乎對話內容,也不在乎是否能降低衝突誤判機率,反而更在乎政治宣傳與國際輿論戰的效果。"
從二戰後和平條約體系檢視拜習會的秩序較量意義:
“正如峰会举办地旧金山所象征和提醒的,在经历了漫长的冲突和融合之后,中国在若干最基本的问题上选择了拒绝,这不是简单的两国差异,而是对现有国际秩序的保留性拒绝:中国现政府没有签署代表战后太平洋秩序安排的《旧金山和约》,也一直否认这一和约的国际法效力;中国现政府也不是《联合国宪章》的签署代表,虽然在1971年顶替国民政府成为联合国成员国,但是随着经济崛起、国富兵强之后开始与此宪章若即若离。
不仅在南中国海海洋纠纷、乌克兰战争、原住民人权和公民权利等诸多联合国宪章所承诺的国际法和公约义务等问题上背道而行,而且大有以所谓人类命运共同体来取代联合国秩序特别是太平洋地区秩序的野心。在太平洋安全核心的台海问题上,中国过去几年倡导以所谓中国统一下的永久和平来取代战后美国治下的台海和平。
对这种秩序颠覆的危险和世界极化政治冲突的担心,弥漫在西太平洋和欧洲,也弥漫在旧金山峰会会场。如此,才能理解秉持执中之路的德国社民党联合政府坚决支持乌克兰的抗俄斗争,在以哈冲突中坚决站在以色列一边,并且开始改变难民容忍政策。”
https://www.voachinese.com/a/biden-xi-summit-and-us-china-detente-20231117/7359097.html
制裁帶來的多重壓力是中國這次願意和談的最重要動機:
"For the first time in years, a Chinese leader desperately needed a few things from the United States. Mr. Xi’s list at the summit started with a revival of American financial investments in China and a break in the technology export controls that have, at least temporarily, crimped Beijing’s ability to make the most advanced semiconductors and the artificial intelligence breakthroughs they enable.
中國領導人迫切需要美國提供一些東西,這是多年來的頭一遭。習近平在峰會上提出的清單首先是美國恢復對中國的金融投資,以及對技術出口管制的放鬆,這種管制至少暫時限制了北京製造最先進半導體和實現人工智慧突破的能力。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/usa/20231117/biden-xi-china-power-balance/zh-hant/dual/
華爾街吃慣了與北京合作的大餅,忘記習近平的共產黨本質是壟斷統治而非追求獲利:
"Wall Street for years has profited enormously from investing in Chinese startups, managing money for Chinese institutions and taking Chinese companies public. Its relationship with Beijing has always been transactional. The prospect of big rewards from its Chinese investments meant Beijing could count on Wall Street to lobby Washington to loosen trade and investment restrictions."
無論是不出席峰會或新設非副部級的國家數據局,外界都嗅出某種欲振乏力的萎靡:
"Unlike the recently formed national data bureau, which also falls under the NDRC’s umbrella, the new department announced Monday won’t hold a vice-ministerial rank, suggesting it is unlikely to be a policy heavyweight in a vast government bureaucracy that has long favored the country’s powerful state-owned enterprises."
對政策反應的這波撤資規模:
"據研究公司Exante Data分析,過去5個交易日,全球投資者藉由滬深港通跨境交易機制撤離中國股市的資金高達31億7000萬美元,這是自去年11月以來歷時最長的一輪資金撤離。"
IC設計全球第六則完全撤出改到越南:
"Marvell 曾在中國上海、南京、成都、北京設有研發中心。其中,中國上海研發中心一度擁有 800 多名研發人員,也是繼美國總部、以色列以外的第三大研發中心,但在 2022 年 10 月,Mavell 宣布裁撤了大部分的中國研發團隊。之後,2023 年 3 月又傳出進一步裁員消息,就是將中國研發團隊全部被裁撤。如今,Marvell 將原本在中國的資源轉移,到越南進一步設立研發中心。"
從經濟學人這張圖表可以看到每兩年就出現明顯資本撤退時點: 2018年, 2020年, 2022年.
中國自身的小型私人資本也呈現流出趨勢:
"根据英国的亨利咨询公司(Henley & Partners)发布的最新亨利私人财富迁移报告(Henley Private Wealth Migration Report),中国预计今年将有1.35万高净值人士(High Net Worth Individuals, HNWI)外流,延续过去十年百万富翁向外移民的趋势。
亨利公司将高净值人士定义为拥有超过一百万可投资资产的富翁。
日经新闻报道说,尽管中国估计有82.38万百万富翁,但是这一外流趋势将使数以千万计美元的财富从中国消失,让中国经济增长减缓的情况进一步恶化。"
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-millionaire-exodus-to-continue-this-year-20230613/7135297.html
外資的看法:
"對沖基金經理朱肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller)曾相信中國經濟會長期增長,但他6月在彭博投資會議上,卻為與會者描繪了一幅嚴峻的未來畫面:「展望10或15年,除非中國高層權力發生變化,否則我認為,這將是一個非常缺乏活力的經濟」,「儘管中國經濟在未來6至9個月可能會出現某種形式的強勁增長,但展望未來,我並不認為中國在經濟實力和增長方面,會對美國構成重大挑戰。」
洛佩茲認為,貿易對中國相當重要,現在是增加出口、從外部世界引進資本的理想時機。但中共的決策者似乎對以市場為導向的解決方案不太感興趣。而中國的結構性問題的核心是債務。中國經濟增長多年來主要來自基礎設施和房地產開發,已經且仍然進行了很多糟糕的投資。"
短期的下半年趨勢暫時看不到反彈機會:
"我們現在來看一下紐約的西德州原油的油價走勢,在今年第二季,油價從相對高位的83美元,下探68美元,可以看出來第二季的國際原油需求確實是疲軟的,間接佐證中國的經濟應該也是疲軟的。
中國經濟在解封之後,流失的外銷訂單並沒有回來,流失的就業機會並沒有恢復,房地產的斷供(業主不願意繼續繳房貸)也沒有消退,地區性銀行也沒有讓存戶可以領錢,一些極端封控時期的現象,現在並沒有真的恢復正常,所以解封之後的經濟復甦不如預期,其實是可以理解的。"
對北靜提及中國人何以鈍感這點的觀察頗為認同:
這波應該剩中石化之類的撐得住?
"財經博主「包叔」在社交平台X上分析說:「這次跟以前都不一樣,以前3000點基本可以確認是底部,這次看起來更像是個起點。」
代表外資的北向資金全天大幅淨賣出117.04億元,日內滬股通淨賣出69.73億元,深股通淨賣出47.31億元。
此為年內第三次單日減倉超百億,已經連續五日淨賣出累計近290億元。
「包叔」說:「今天是外資出逃最凶的一天,半天就淨賣出75億,茅台大跌5%,顯然是外資斬倉了。主要原因是紅杉在華投資情況正在被美國國會調查,GGV(紀源資本)、金沙江、高通投資部都在被調查之中,想要通過架構操作,將中美投資分開、首鼠兩端是行不通的,只能二選一,顯然投資者們已經做出了選擇。」"
資本淨流出長短期皆然,大勢煞不住:
"Recent surveys of U.S., European and Japanese companies in China show executives are souring on new investments there, unnerved by the prospect of conflict with Taiwan and China’s efforts to tighten oversight of foreign firms operating within its borders. Overall foreign direct investment in China was negative in the third quarter, with outflows of capital exceeding inflows by $11.8 billion—the first negative quarterly outflow recorded in balance-of-payments data that starts in 1998."
"More recently, global investors have also become net sellers of stocks listed in mainland China. From August to October, they pulled more than $23 billion from yuan-denominated shares via a trading link between Hong Kong and stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, according to data provider Wind. "
日本在中國的潛在人質太多了:
[ 日本現在沒有“間諜防止法”,也就是“反間諜法”,而世界其它各國一般都有,二戰後直到今天,沒有外國人在日本因 “間諜罪”受到刑事處罰,因為沒有“反間諜法”,抓住外國間諜也沒有相應的法律,有時只能用“出入境難民管理法”等相關法律,實行驅除出境等極其輕微的處罰。日本現在的信息透明性極高,“機密情報”極少,在中國被算作“間諜行為”的事情,往往在日本根本不算什麼事,因此日本人到了中國,讓他們認知什麼是“間諜行為”,他們完全沒有參照系,往往會不知所措,即使有時受到日本與收集情報相關的部門的指使,在中國收集一些情報,他們對這種行為在中國的“違法性”的認識,也是相當遲鈍的。]
有<反間諜法>這種綁匪工具在,外企還不得考慮再撤離一波?
"中國商務部9月15日公布,今年1至8月,全國實際使用外資金額人民幣8471.7億元(約新台幣3.72兆元),年減5.1%。這是中國吸收外資連續第3個月下降,比1至7月再下降1.1個百分點。"
無論是美國商會或歐盟商會都對中國市場前景感到悲觀:
"Less than half of respondents saw their 2022 revenue increase compared with the previous year, the lowest in more than 15 years. Some 68% of respondents said they were profitable last year, the lowest rate since the survey began, while just 37% saw their operating margins grow from the previous year, the lowest since 2008.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China echoed many of the same sentiments in a position paper also released Tuesday that reflected the views of its more than 1,700 member companies. The group cited concerns over the country’s anti-espionage and data-security laws, among other challenges."
紐時這篇內容跟WSJ差不多; 目前看來外資對中國經濟政策維持敬而遠之的態度:
"The pileup of difficulties is weighing on decisions about whether to put more money into the Chinese economy. Foreign direct investment plunged 87 percent from April through June, compared with the same months last year, according to Nomura, a Japanese bank. That is the lowest quarterly level since modern records began in early 1998.
接連不斷的困難正在影響外企在華投資的決定。日本野村銀行的數據顯示,今年4月至6月的外國直接投資與去年同期相比驟減了87%。這是自1998年初有了現代記錄以來的最低季度水平。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20230920/american-european-chamber-commerce-china/zh-hant/dual/
反間諜法針對外國人, 主張一個中國的中國法律又將台灣歸屬於該法適用範圍, 這下好玩了~
[ The proposed law fits neatly against the backdrop of Mr. Xi’s policies that have caused China to churn out a series of arbitrary laws in a hurry. The Foreign State Immunity Law, which will go into effect in January 2024, will deny foreigners sovereign-immunity protection if their commercial activity has a “direct effect within the territory of China.” That presumably would include Taiwan. The Foreign Relations Law, which took effect in July, appears to be little more than a bundle of Mr. Xi’s quotes, but it made clear that the party will take charge of international relations, including “necessary measures” to protect Chinese interests overseas. The Anti-Spy Law, which also became effective in July, dramatically expanded China’s definition of espionage. The Patriotic Education Law and a new security law in Hong Kong are coming next. ]
多操作幾次就能嚇跑更多台商啦~
"蔡明彥表示,這9件赴中遭盤查者的身分,包括社會團體人士、學者、 大陸配偶等,台灣民眾最近到對岸遭關押入罪的則有13件;中國盤查台灣民眾過程,主要會調查該民眾曾發表的政治言論,看通訊或手機訊息有無談到批判中國內容。
蔡明彥表示,大約20天前有一個非常特殊案件,這名台灣民眾是入境後進入飯店,才被中國國安單位約談,是少見的例子。"
令人聯想到之前財經網美Emmy說的中國公安與國安開始互通資訊:
“知情人士透露,有綠營人士向海基會尋求協助,告知小英之友會一名成員在中國被抓,人身自由受到限制。目前不清楚是否為國安案件,相關單位正在追查中。”
小粉紅們應該是喜聞樂見?
"日本研調公司帝國徵信(Teikoku Databank)公佈的數據顯示,2020年到2022年間,進駐中國的日企數量從1萬3600家,減少至1萬2700家,總數創下10年新低,與疫情前相比下降約7%。相較於2020年2月進行的前1次調查,共有2176家企業離開中國或下落不明,116家公司破產和停業,以地區來看上海共272家,減少的數量最多,其次為廣東203家、山東152家。"
中國這種進得去出不來的把戲搞久了,資本跟人才都不可能冒險再投入的:
"China has been known to place exit bans on people that are being investigated or assisting with government probes. Such travel restrictions have been imposed on Chinese and foreign nationals, and aren’t typically known to the individuals they apply to until they attempt to leave mainland China.
The persons in question could be involved in investigations that could drag out for months or years. They could also be foreign nationals who face no allegations of wrongdoing but are held to put pressure on family members to return to the country."
這個避免前往範圍會擴大到香港:
“因為王仲何被限制出境之後,更多的投資銀行家會避免前往中國大陸,而只能通過其他渠道,獲取類似於中國宏觀經濟指標的消息,以及2024、2025年宏觀經濟發展指標能否達到中國政府對外承諾的預期。這讓外界會增加對於中國實際經濟發展情況的誤判。”
嚇跑資金仍然衣帶漸寬終不悔,不愧是中國作風啊~
"The growing use of exit bans have added to concerns for foreign firms in China. Chinese authorities often place exit bans on people—both Chinese and foreign nationals—being investigated or those who are assisting with government probes. People targeted typically don’t know about their exit bans until they try to leave mainland China.
China’s use of exit bans has contributed to the U.S. State Department’s advice to reconsider travel to the country due to its arbitrary enforcement of laws. China rejects that characterization as politically biased."
目前尚是中國貿易獲利最大來源的歐盟看到米日外商高管的前車之鑑而要中國劃出界線預防自己人受害:
"One agreement to emerge from the summit, the two European presidents agreed, was a mechanism for China to provide more clarity on how European companies can follow stricter rules on transferring data out of the country.
這兩名歐洲領導人都同意,此次峰會達成了一項協議,那就是建立一個機制,讓中國提供更明確的說明,以便歐洲企業了解把數據傳輸到國外時如何遵守更嚴格的規則。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/world/20231208/china-eu-xi-michel/zh-hant/dual/
外資面對的中國國安法風險只會有增無減:
"《日經新聞》二十二日也報導,日本一家金屬貿易商一名中國籍員工,以及可能與該日企有交易關係的中國國企一名員工,今年三月不明原因被捕。消息人士透露,這兩人皆負責稀土金屬業務,在中國收緊稀土管控之際,推測他們可能因涉嫌洩漏相關訊息而遭捕。"
@Perfume 到目前为止,亚马逊官方声明中要在六七月份关闭的是Kindle内容商店和亚马逊应用商店,官网海淘的部分是不关闭的。
应该是跟数据安全法有关。
https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2023-05-24/doc-imyuvvhh6418612.shtml
@Perfume 感覺Marvell一直有點水土不服,很少用到他們家芯片
@Perfume
海淘业务和全球开店业务应该会留着,就像谷歌出海计划那样。
再说这种跑路的结果就是中国人才市场少了一个养老公司,然后被迫进入内卷大潮。遥遥领先,遥遥领先。
( ˇωˇ)
@Perfume 哇吼 不知道會不會影響亞馬遜中國公司呢,有表親從美國讀書回來之後進了上海的亞馬遜工作⋯⋯😂
@Perfume 把“惡意做空”的統統抓起來 😂
@Perfume 主要是针对美国的,即使如此,在华美企也快活着呢,该转让技术的转让技术,一点儿也不耽误赚钱,和跪舔的欧洲更是浑身不搭界
@Perfume 不,还是有赚头,马一龙算是美商代表了吧?不是也在表白挺共
@Perfume 可以去当政协委员了。
@Perfume 但適不適用還是中共說了算
WSJ對美思明智與貝恩兩間美企先後遭到搜查的原因作出解釋:
"Mintz and Bain both operate businesses involving collection of information, an area that some executives worry are coming under increasing scrutiny from Chinese authorities. As a due-diligence firm, Mintz offers services such as background checks and investigations on potential business partners, rivals and new hires.
Bain—whose presence in China includes offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong—specializes in providing counsel to businesses and conducts and publishes research on local markets."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-authorities-question-bain-staff-in-shanghai-e0bbf2fb