台灣備戰需要雙重加速: 爭取短期內購入軍備與強化軍員實戰能力.
"U.S. officials, former Taiwanese military leaders and security experts say they believe that means Taiwan needs to do more to ensure it can inflict enough damage to discourage an invading force or hold it off until the arrival of help—possibly from the U.S. After years of increases in military spending, China now has around 100 times as many ground force personnel as Taiwan and a military budget 25 times as large, according to Pentagon data."
中國武裝攻擊前，致力打擊台灣自衛信心的動機: PLA逾卌年無實戰經驗，且有印太鄰國的包圍壓力。
"Launching a full-scale amphibious incursion 130 kilometers from the mainland would be a daunting exercise, and the PLA has not had major combat experience since 1979. Beijing would risk major resistance from Taipei as well as a devastating military response from Washington. In addition, it would do grave, if not, irreparable damage to its ties with the United States and the European Union, not to mention the four militarily and economically formidable democracies it counts as neighbors: Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, it is hard to think of an action that would do more to jeopardize China’s long-term strategic prospects. It would be far less risky for Beijing to continue its present lines of efforts: increasing its bilateral military advantage across the Taiwan Strait, working to undermine Taipei’s self-confidence, and persuading Taiwan that it will eventually have to acquiesce to resolving cross-strait tensions on China’s terms."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/taiwan-at-the-nexus-of-technology-and-geopolitics/
PLA人事異動的意義:
"王秀斌過去在過去南京軍區、現東部戰區歷練，相當熟悉對台作戰；之前南部戰區司令員為海軍出身的袁譽柏，此次南部戰區又由陸軍體系王秀斌擔任司令員，推測並非要對中南半島下手，而是代表過去海軍出生的將領已完備南部戰區的海空指管制度建立，更代表中共總書記習近平推動的軍改已有第一階段成效，才會有此人事調整。
林穎佑認為，王秀彬既是懂東部戰區、又懂台海作戰的將領，由於現在共機擾台的航空器大多是從東部戰區飛來，在王秀彬上任後，南部戰區是否可能加入擾台或對台作戰的序列，值得注意。
林穎佑也提到，巨乾生出身於共軍總參謀部技術偵察部，不僅是技術（駭客）將領，更是懂「駭客思維」的人選，而戰略支援部隊就是整個共軍的資訊作戰領導，有別於可能出現外行領導內行的情況，現在由技術背景出身的軍官擔任資訊戰將領，對於提升共軍資訊人才的士氣具有一定幫助，更代表資訊作戰、信息戰未來在共軍的重要性。"
PLA新秀火箭軍近期人事緊張:
"前中國海軍司令部中校姚誠6月28日在推特上表示：「火箭軍現任司令李玉超前（ 27 日）天上午己從辦公室被帶走！3月以來，（火箭軍）前後3仼司令、2個副司令，軍師級幹部若干落馬。消息在進一步證實中。」"
南華早報的名單比較清楚：
“火箭軍原司令李玉超先前傳出在辦公室開會時被帶走，已有一段時間不知下落。香港《南華早報》日前報導，中國火箭軍司令員李玉超、副司令員劉光斌，以及前火箭軍副司令員、現任中共中央軍委聯合參謀部副參謀長張振中，因為涉及貪腐已於3月被帶走調查。”
這集提到明朝集權/清朝分權的中國亡國模式好有趣，但最好玩的還是火箭軍間諜氣球花絮這段~
集權下的人事慣例被打破總是透露弦外之音:
"財新網報導指出，從1988年起，全國婦聯主席長期是由全國人大常委會副委員長兼任；1978年到1988年的全國婦聯主席康克清當時是以全國政協副主席身分兼任。諶貽琴以國務委員身分兼任全國婦聯主席，打破了慣例。"
中國人大常委會似乎成了新的人事觀察窗:
"中國官方媒體在簡短的報導中宣布了李尚福的免職，並提及了其他官員的任免情況。報導稱，這一決定是在週二的全國人大常務委員會的會議上作出的，該委員會屬於由中共控制的立法機關，負責政府高級官員的正式任命。習近平作為國家主席簽署了這些任免決定。"
"General Li’s ouster was announced by Chinese state media in brief reports that noted other official appointments and dismissals. The reports said the decision was made on Tuesday at the end of a meeting of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress — a council in the country’s Communist Party-controlled legislature that formally appoints senior government officials. Mr. Xi, as state president, signed off on the decisions."
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20231025/china-defense-minister-ousted/zh-hant/dual/