俄羅斯真部署重兵了,結果美國官員說因應方案還沒提給阿拜。騙誰啊? :ablobunamused:

"美方官員估計,目前陳兵克里米亞與烏克蘭附近的俄軍已多達8萬人,約為4週前的近兩倍。歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表波瑞爾(Josep Borrell)則估計俄軍有10萬之譜,比2014年併吞克里米亞時部署的部隊還多,也遠高於目前陳兵烏克蘭東部的規模。"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202104220

西方這廂武器小補, 俄羅斯那廂不甘示弱:

"根據《路透》報導,「Maxar Technologies」指出,衛星在2月4日拍下俄軍在白俄羅斯葉利斯基(Yelsk)、列奇察(Rechitsa)及盧尼涅茨(Luninets)的部署概況,上述三地都距離烏克蘭邊境不到50公里。

衛星拍下俄軍在列奇察的一處部隊營舍、停車場及火砲部署點,在葉利斯基則發現俄軍出動的飛彈發射車及火箭發射車,在盧尼涅茨某處機場則拍到俄軍攻擊機。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

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讓人翻白眼的馬後炮反應:

"美國白宮國家安全顧問蘇利文蘇利文(Jake Sullivan)接受多家電視新聞台的訪問,他告訴「福斯週日新聞」(Fox News Sunday):「我們處於關鍵時刻,當前任何一天,俄羅斯都可能對烏克蘭採取軍事行動,或是可能從今起約數週後,亦或是俄羅斯可能選擇採取外交途徑。」

而蘇利文接受美國國家廣播公司新聞網(NBC News)節目「會晤新聞界」(Meet the Press)訪問指出,俄羅斯可能採取的行動包括,併吞烏克蘭的頓內茨克(Donetsk)地區、網攻或全面入侵烏克蘭,並說俄羅斯可能最快7日就會採取行動,但也可能需時數週。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

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不曉得德國回應了沒?

"基輔當局明確提出所需的「防禦性武器」種類,包括中程防空飛彈系統、便攜式地對空飛彈、反無人機步槍、電子追蹤系統、夜視設備、監控攝影機和彈藥等,並強調這些防禦性武器僅用於自衛。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

俄羅斯與白羅斯藉軍演名義封鎖烏克蘭所有出海口:

"The blockade has underscored the vulnerability of Ukraine’s southern coastline and its ports, as well as the inability of Ukraine and NATO to deter Moscow in the Black Sea."

foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/10/r

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這種風雨欲來的局勢真令人緊張不安:

"美國國務院在當地時間14日表示,俄羅斯在鄰近烏克蘭的白羅斯邊界地區集結軍隊,並敦促美國公民立刻離開白羅斯,聲明表示由於俄羅斯在烏克蘭邊境的不尋常且令人擔憂的軍事活動有所增加,鑑於局勢的高度動盪,強烈建議美國公民不要前往白俄羅斯。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

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俄烏交戰前傳:

"Ukrainians aren’t waiting for the war with Russia to start. They have been fighting one since 2014, when Russia first invaded and seized portions of the country. Moscow has since used armed proxies in eastern Ukraine to pursue a grinding conflict aimed at bringing its former vassal to heel. The war has cost the lives of at least 14,000 people, drained billions of dollars from Ukraine’s economy and displaced hundreds of thousands of residents."

"Most of the Ukrainian military casualties came in the first year, when fighting was heaviest and training and medical provision at their weakest. One or two have died every week over the past few years, often by sniper or mortar fire across the front lines, a divide largely fixed in a 2015 deal that ended the heaviest fighting but didn’t bring peace."

wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-

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日本觀察看法很有趣:

"俄羅斯希望東烏克蘭成為非武裝地區,確保能避免NATO軍不斷湧向俄羅斯邊境的體制,而美國和烏克蘭政府卻毫不讓步,俄羅斯只能以武力確保東烏克蘭的軍事據點,並以此作為和西方交易的籌碼。但是俄羅斯進入東烏克蘭的武裝勢力並不服從克林姆林宮的意願,其中心勢力據說是俄羅斯軍隊的間諜機關GRU,此外還混雜著許多代表俄羅斯國家主義的「光頭黨」青年,他們總是尋求騷亂場所,這群烏合之眾缺乏統一指揮,各自行事。"

"老的歐盟各國沒有真正專心致力於烏克蘭問題,他們尤其明白一件事實,烏克蘭分裂為親歐的西部和親俄的東部,不可能因為加盟EU和NATO而抱成一團,況且烏克蘭對他國的依賴程度高,又十分腐敗,包攬烏克蘭的負擔令歐盟踟躕不前。積極推進和烏克蘭結盟的是波蘭和立陶宛這些新的歐盟加盟國,他們害怕俄羅斯的復活,希望確保烏克蘭作為政治緩衝地帶。"

nippon.com/hk/column/g00206/#.

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屬於少數派的趙君朔從心理與手段做出有限戰爭的分析:

"動武當然可能造成重大傷亡和換來美歐聯手的嚴格經濟制裁,但是1)對於普丁這種長期在位的獨裁者來說,到了執政後期,權力穩固的狀況下,它們傾向於追求完成某種能建立歷史性功業的大事,而忽略這當中伴隨的風險,當年波斯灣戰爭前的海珊就是不覺得他吃掉科威特美國會勞師動眾來把他趕走,習近平現在積極為攻打台灣做準備已完成他心目中中華民族的偉大復興
的最後一塊拼圖也是同樣的道理。

其次雖然出兵會換來嚴厲的經濟制裁,但狡猾的普丁可能只在已經有所斬獲的東烏克蘭的Donbas再度用兵,而不是全面入侵來賭西方可能為了自己不想承受制裁的經濟代價而放棄制裁,這可能就是為何普丁儘管前天也滿口要繼續外交協商但還是說在東烏克蘭會發生針對親俄人士的"種族屠殺",這就是為他的用兵在準備藉口,而且有此藉口他出兵就不是進攻,是為了保衛也有俄羅斯護照的東烏居民。

而且即使他這次選擇擴大用兵範圍,從正在白俄羅斯演習的軍隊調兵南下圍攻烏克蘭首都基輔而遭受嚴厲制裁,他在冬奧開幕當天在北京簽訂的能源供應協議已經讓他足以緩和制裁的代價,讓他有底氣動武。因此總體來看,普丁還是在持續加壓希望靠動武的威脅讓西方暗中逼烏克蘭讓步或是烏克蘭自己提條件放棄加入北約(這在烏克蘭總統和德國總理的記者會中雙方的發言中有聞到一點朝這個方向邁出一步的味道),如果用嚇的不行,那只好用打的,而要打,最好是在烏克蘭大平原上融雪的季節(三月)開始之前,所以到底外交協商還能拖住普丁多久,值得繼續關注。"

facebook.com/permalink.php?sto

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從中央社地圖看, 出事的不是之前大家猜的頓內茨克而是盧甘斯克:

"俄新社的報導引述俄烏處理停火和劃界的聯合控制和協調中心(JCCC)指出,烏克蘭部隊格林威治時間17日凌晨2時30分(台北時間17日上午10時30分)朝盧甘斯克(Luhansk)境內開火,包括動用明斯克協議(The Minsk Accords)所禁用的迫砲與手榴彈。"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202175

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北約如果夠強硬也不致令俄羅斯躍躍欲試:

"「新明斯克協議」是指2014年烏克蘭東部內戰後的隔年二月,德法兩國斡旋烏克蘭政府和分離勢力掌控的頓內次克(Donetsk)和盧甘斯克(Luhansk)兩州,以及俄羅斯政府與歐洲安全與合作組織(OSCE)共同制定系列措施,簽署「新明斯克協議」。

美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)日前分析,「新明斯克協議」執行的困難在於烏俄兩國對賦予上述兩州自治權的順序不同:烏克蘭主張應先重新掌握該區主權、俄國撤軍後,再舉行選舉;但俄羅斯否認在當地有駐軍,並主張先選舉並賦予當地自治權。這造成協議難以執行,戰火難滅。"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202180

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傀儡前鋒:

"頓內茨克和盧甘斯克共和國允許俄羅斯可在當地建立軍事基地,並就互相保護、軍事合作以及邊界認定等達成協議,其中邊界認定相當關鍵,因為兩「共和國」所聲稱的邊界有部分地區處於烏克蘭控制之下,俄軍恐為其拿下這些地區的控制權。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

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倆小弟認老大的十年賣身契:

"The 31-point treaties also say Russia and the breakaway statelets will work to integrate their economies. Both of them are former industrial areas in need of massive support to rebuild after eight years of war with Ukrainian government forces.

The 10-year treaties are automatically renewable for further five-year periods unless one of the parties gives notice to withdraw."

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頓巴斯地區的頓內次克與盧甘斯克若接著加入俄羅斯聯邦,北約成員恐怕要正式面對東歐戰場的可能性了:

"Deciding to recognize the two territories in Donbas would likely grant the Kremlin greater sway over these regions, already proxies of Moscow, and hand Mr. Putin an additional trump card in negotiations in his current standoff with the West.

Russia’s Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, will consider the move to recognize the breakaway regions at a closed meeting Tuesday, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported, a necessary move to formalize the decrees under Russian law."

wsj.com/articles/russia-allege

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早上看俄新社新聞時頗感慨: 沒看過國家剛獨立時揮舞的是鄰國國旗的....

"Groups of people gathered in the streets, displaying Russia’s flags and cheering Moscow’s move, another video shows."

rt.com/russia/550172-donetsk-l

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從美聯社的報導研判, 目前雙方實際動手不多, 主要還是政治操作為主:

"While separatists have charged that Ukrainian forces were firing on residential areas, Associated Press journalists reporting from several towns and villages in Ukrainian-held territory along the line of contact have not witnessed any notable escalation from the Ukrainian side and have documented signs of intensified shelling by the separatists that destroyed homes and ripped up roads.

Some residents of the main rebel-held city of Donetsk described sporadic shelling by Ukrainian forces, but they added that it wasn’t on the same scale as earlier in the conflict."

apnews.com/article/russia-ukra

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終於拿上個世紀簽署的布達佩斯安全保障備忘錄出來吵了,事實證明共產黨政權簽約都能隨時不認帳的:

"蘇聯解體後烏克蘭繼承了一個重要的核武庫。但是在1994年烏克蘭、俄羅斯、美國和英國簽署了布達佩斯備忘錄,鑒於烏克蘭加入不擴散核武器條約這個備忘錄是安全保障的國際協議。根據協議,烏克蘭的核武庫被取消,核大國承諾保證烏克蘭的安全。"

big5.sputniknews.cn/amp/202202

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WSJ這篇進一步剖析了普丁或者說俄羅斯政權的心理陰影:

"The Russian leader is trying to stop further enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, whose expansion he sees as encroaching on Russia’s security and part of the West’s deception and broken promises. He wants NATO to scale back its military reach to the 1990s, before it expanded east of Germany. The demands would reverse many of the extraordinary changes in Europe that took place in that decade.

In sum, Mr. Putin seeks to undo many of the security consequences of the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, an event the Russian leader has called the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.

Given that the past century encompassed two world wars, the Holocaust and much else, Mr. Putin’s superlative is revealing. It reflects what he saw at close hand in the 1990s: the collapse of the Soviet empire, Moscow’s reliance on the West for handouts as its economy went into free fall and his country’s internal chaos. The West, meanwhile, trumpeted its Cold War victory."

wsj.com/articles/putins-endgam

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資深小弟白羅斯都這樣說了....

"白俄羅斯國防部長赫列寧(Viktor Khrenin)於20日表示:「由於俄白邊境地區的軍事活動趨於活躍,烏克蘭東部局勢正在惡化,因此兩國總統決定將繼續檢驗部隊。」他宣布,演習結束後俄軍也不會撤軍,會在當地停留。"

www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zt/new

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