台灣備戰需要雙重加速: 爭取短期內購入軍備與強化軍員實戰能力.
"U.S. officials, former Taiwanese military leaders and security experts say they believe that means Taiwan needs to do more to ensure it can inflict enough damage to discourage an invading force or hold it off until the arrival of help—possibly from the U.S. After years of increases in military spending, China now has around 100 times as many ground force personnel as Taiwan and a military budget 25 times as large, according to Pentagon data."
中國武裝攻擊前,致力打擊台灣自衛信心的動機: PLA逾卌年無實戰經驗,且有印太鄰國的包圍壓力。
"Launching a full-scale amphibious incursion 130 kilometers from the mainland would be a daunting exercise, and the PLA has not had major combat experience since 1979. Beijing would risk major resistance from Taipei as well as a devastating military response from Washington. In addition, it would do grave, if not, irreparable damage to its ties with the United States and the European Union, not to mention the four militarily and economically formidable democracies it counts as neighbors: Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, it is hard to think of an action that would do more to jeopardize China’s long-term strategic prospects. It would be far less risky for Beijing to continue its present lines of efforts: increasing its bilateral military advantage across the Taiwan Strait, working to undermine Taipei’s self-confidence, and persuading Taiwan that it will eventually have to acquiesce to resolving cross-strait tensions on China’s terms."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/taiwan-at-the-nexus-of-technology-and-geopolitics/
PLA人事異動的意義:
"王秀斌過去在過去南京軍區、現東部戰區歷練,相當熟悉對台作戰;之前南部戰區司令員為海軍出身的袁譽柏,此次南部戰區又由陸軍體系王秀斌擔任司令員,推測並非要對中南半島下手,而是代表過去海軍出生的將領已完備南部戰區的海空指管制度建立,更代表中共總書記習近平推動的軍改已有第一階段成效,才會有此人事調整。
林穎佑認為,王秀彬既是懂東部戰區、又懂台海作戰的將領,由於現在共機擾台的航空器大多是從東部戰區飛來,在王秀彬上任後,南部戰區是否可能加入擾台或對台作戰的序列,值得注意。
林穎佑也提到,巨乾生出身於共軍總參謀部技術偵察部,不僅是技術(駭客)將領,更是懂「駭客思維」的人選,而戰略支援部隊就是整個共軍的資訊作戰領導,有別於可能出現外行領導內行的情況,現在由技術背景出身的軍官擔任資訊戰將領,對於提升共軍資訊人才的士氣具有一定幫助,更代表資訊作戰、信息戰未來在共軍的重要性。"
共軍在新疆維持大型編制:
"2015年軍改後,共軍陸軍沿襲近90年「師團」建制幾乎全面裁減,普遍實施「師改旅」,將「師-團-營」三級改為「旅-營」兩級。陸軍僅剩6個師,除了北京衛戍區2個警衛師,其餘4個負責機動野戰合成師,全部位於新疆軍區。就總體編制而言,一般集團軍轄12個旅,包括6個合成旅和6個支援旅。新疆軍區轄4個合成師、8個支援旅,加15個邊防團,還有南疆軍區、生產建設兵團軍事部以及16個軍分區。與旅相比,師的規模更大,兵力幾乎是旅的2倍。合成師自身的火炮數量比旅更多,能夠自主實施遠程縱深打擊。新疆軍區駐地面積超過全國陸地六分之一,如此廣大面積,加上漫長邊境線,需要部署強大地面部隊管控態勢,因此保留師級建制。
內陸陸軍邊防壓力小,側重全域機動,因而改為小而精的旅級部隊。4個合成師悠久歷史,包括「天山雄師」第4師、「高原勁旅」第6師、「天山鐵騎」第8師、「紅軍師」第11師。第4師、第6師曾參加1962年中印邊境自衛還擊戰。第11師是唯一自1949年以來從未更改番號的師級部隊。"