台灣備戰需要雙重加速: 爭取短期內購入軍備與強化軍員實戰能力.
"U.S. officials, former Taiwanese military leaders and security experts say they believe that means Taiwan needs to do more to ensure it can inflict enough damage to discourage an invading force or hold it off until the arrival of help—possibly from the U.S. After years of increases in military spending, China now has around 100 times as many ground force personnel as Taiwan and a military budget 25 times as large, according to Pentagon data."
中國武裝攻擊前，致力打擊台灣自衛信心的動機: PLA逾卌年無實戰經驗，且有印太鄰國的包圍壓力。
"Launching a full-scale amphibious incursion 130 kilometers from the mainland would be a daunting exercise, and the PLA has not had major combat experience since 1979. Beijing would risk major resistance from Taipei as well as a devastating military response from Washington. In addition, it would do grave, if not, irreparable damage to its ties with the United States and the European Union, not to mention the four militarily and economically formidable democracies it counts as neighbors: Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, it is hard to think of an action that would do more to jeopardize China’s long-term strategic prospects. It would be far less risky for Beijing to continue its present lines of efforts: increasing its bilateral military advantage across the Taiwan Strait, working to undermine Taipei’s self-confidence, and persuading Taiwan that it will eventually have to acquiesce to resolving cross-strait tensions on China’s terms."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/taiwan-at-the-nexus-of-technology-and-geopolitics/
PLA人事異動的意義:
"王秀斌過去在過去南京軍區、現東部戰區歷練，相當熟悉對台作戰；之前南部戰區司令員為海軍出身的袁譽柏，此次南部戰區又由陸軍體系王秀斌擔任司令員，推測並非要對中南半島下手，而是代表過去海軍出生的將領已完備南部戰區的海空指管制度建立，更代表中共總書記習近平推動的軍改已有第一階段成效，才會有此人事調整。
林穎佑認為，王秀彬既是懂東部戰區、又懂台海作戰的將領，由於現在共機擾台的航空器大多是從東部戰區飛來，在王秀彬上任後，南部戰區是否可能加入擾台或對台作戰的序列，值得注意。
林穎佑也提到，巨乾生出身於共軍總參謀部技術偵察部，不僅是技術（駭客）將領，更是懂「駭客思維」的人選，而戰略支援部隊就是整個共軍的資訊作戰領導，有別於可能出現外行領導內行的情況，現在由技術背景出身的軍官擔任資訊戰將領，對於提升共軍資訊人才的士氣具有一定幫助，更代表資訊作戰、信息戰未來在共軍的重要性。"
PLA新秀火箭軍近期人事緊張:
"前中國海軍司令部中校姚誠6月28日在推特上表示：「火箭軍現任司令李玉超前（ 27 日）天上午己從辦公室被帶走！3月以來，（火箭軍）前後3仼司令、2個副司令，軍師級幹部若干落馬。消息在進一步證實中。」"
南華早報的名單比較清楚：
“火箭軍原司令李玉超先前傳出在辦公室開會時被帶走，已有一段時間不知下落。香港《南華早報》日前報導，中國火箭軍司令員李玉超、副司令員劉光斌，以及前火箭軍副司令員、現任中共中央軍委聯合參謀部副參謀長張振中，因為涉及貪腐已於3月被帶走調查。”
火箭軍的報導裡同時出現秦剛照片也滿妙的~
"The PLA Rocket Force has hundreds of ballistic missiles that could be used to target Taiwan in any attempt to forcibly take control of the island or threaten major U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam. China has also deployed hypersonic missiles, which the U.S. has struggled to develop and which are much harder for missile-defense systems to destroy."
這樣爆下去最後會剩幾個?
"中央軍委紀律檢查委員會簡稱中央軍委紀委，是軍隊「打虎」的重要部門，改革後與原先隸屬總政治部的軍紀委相比，中央軍委紀委獨立性和權威性得到提升。
「@cskun1989」猜測，張升民在這個位置上出事，可謂是沒有先例，此前查處火箭軍將領和一大批軍中將領都是他積極推動，因而也得罪了諸多軍方將領，包括曾提攜栽培他的高級將領。"
維尼帝這波清理解放軍人事從火箭軍燒到海軍了~
"據大陸網傳消息，除了李尚福外，這一批受查的高級將領還包括火箭軍首任司令魏鳳和上將，以及軍委裝備發展部的兩名現任副部長夏清月和饒文敏、海軍北海艦隊司令王大忠。
夏清月是現任中央軍委副主席張又俠任裝發部長時的辦公室主任，饒文敏則曾任該部信息局局長，而王大忠原本就是海軍將領，曾當過海軍副參謀長，5年前升任後勤保障部副部長，去年重返海軍。
文章表示，這一輪清查行動還波及軍工行業，中航工業、中航科工、中國兵工和南方工業都有高層被帶走協助調查。"
被免去人大代表的九名會不會跟被失蹤的將領名單高度重複?
"12月29日闭幕的十四届中国全国人大常委会第七次会议，除了任命前解放军海军司令员董军为新任国防部长外，还免去9名将领的人大代表资格，其中包括四名火箭军军人代表。"
三中全會沒開之前的中國政府高階人事大概都有不穩定的風險在:
"It also remains uncertain if the scrutiny has extended to officials and commanders whom Mr. Xi appointed to the top leadership team for his third term as Communist Party leader in 2022."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/world/asia/xi-jinping-military-purge.html
