Perfume @Perfume@qoto.org
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
台灣這張牌是目前檯面上最被關注的一張, 但其實閒莊雙方都盤算著打貿易牌換最多籌碼回來:
[ Washington takes no official stand on Taiwan’s sovereignty and adopts a stance known as “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would defend Taiwan in the event of military action by mainland China. Mr. Biden has recently made statements about defending Taiwan that irked Beijing and led U.S. aides to clarify that the policy remains in place.
The U.S. conducts a robust arms-sales program with Taiwan, and The Wall Street Journal in October reported the U.S. has quietly deployed a small group of troop advisers to Taiwan for at least a year. ]
Beijing has signaled that it could take the democratically controlled island by force to unify it with mainland China and has alarmed Taiwan and U.S. officials by sending waves of warplanes near Taiwan in shows of force. U.S. officials estimate that such a scenario could happen within five years, but others believe a miscalculation by any side could trigger a crisis sooner.
趙君朔大概會用一整集噴阿拜這個避免衝突的主軸喔. 😆 😆
"作為美中領袖的責任是確保競爭不會變成衝突，不論是有意還是無意，必須確保兩國間坦率、直接的競爭。
他指出，兩國需要建立常理性護欄（common-sense guardrails），在分歧處清楚坦誠，在有共同利益處共同努力，特別是在氣候變遷等重要全球議題上，這是負責任的世界領導能力。美中雙邊關係不僅對我們的國家，對世界其他地區都有深遠影響，「我們對世界與人民都負有責任」。
拜登指出，所有國家都須遵守同樣規則，美國捍衛自身利益與價值觀，也捍衛夥伴與盟友的利益與價值觀，今天他將與習近平討論關注的議題，包括人權、經濟與自由開放印太地區，坦誠率直的相互溝通十分重要。"
這類的清查應該會慢慢浮出水面:
"Police say Alpi in 2019 sent a military drone to China for more than a year, falsely describing it as a “radio-controlled airplane model” intended for an import fair in Shanghai that lasted five days.
Prosecutors allege that the six executives violated Italian laws on the export of military equipment. The Italian government has also opened an inquiry into whether it should have been notified of the sale. It has the right to veto takeovers by non-EU buyers of companies deemed strategic in sectors such as defense and communications.
Analysts say Beijing is using such purchases to target specific needs, such as semiconductors, to reduce its reliance on foreign technologies."
兩個月後終於知道是哪兩間中國國企了:
"義大利警方今年兩度搜索阿爾卑辦公室，發現馬邇斯（香港）信息科技有限公司註冊不久後，於2018年7月以400萬歐元買下阿爾卑75%股份，接著投資150萬歐元。警方認為買家出價過高，經追查發現背後金主是中國中車股份有限公司及江蘇省無錫市政府掌控的一個投資集團，因而認定馬邇斯是中國政府為吸收阿爾卑而成立的空殼公司。"
核三角關係的牽制糾葛:
" In 2016, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies and Japan lobbied the Obama administration not to adopt a No First Use (NFU) policy on nuclear weapons, as that would have encouraged Russian and Chinese aggression. In 2021 they are again lobbying the Biden Administration to forego NFU-like policies.
This will require private and perhaps even public appeals that the United States abandon the New START Treaty with Russia and put warheads back on its ICBMs and SLBMs, which could increase U.S. deployed warheads back to levels needed to deter both China and Russia."
適得其反~ #台日友好
"就在大會舉辦前，神戶市議員上畠寬弘上月中旬在推特爆炸，遭到中國駐大阪總領事館施壓，要求神戶市停辦本屆大會。上畠很憤慨地說「日台情誼不滅，絕不向中共屈服！」
消息一出後，引發日本地方議員反彈，謝長廷表示，中國大阪領事館施壓後，大家都來棒場了，「中國的影響力還是很大」，這次人數爆增，本來約300人參加，人數就算很多了，高雄那屆日本議員313人參加已是破紀錄，結果這次有490人報名，將近500人，一直增加都擋不住，謝長廷還說，「所以我們也知道了中國的（催票）實力了」。"
https://video.ltn.com.tw/article/HjYnOIRG03M/PLI7xntdRxhw3Qcbd70QE2FRWgpOQ-hBHO
昨晚沒睡好，淺眠被凌晨傳來的狗吠貓叫驚醒，急忙著衣衝去暗夜中的浪貓據點，意圖抓逮可能訓練狗群狩貓的元兇。
以前只在網路上看到的都市傳說，發生在社區周遭時，格外驚悚。有時來得及嚇退狗群，有時只能眼睜睜貓被叼走。
雖然明白要解決問題需要長期佈線，不宜打草驚蛇，但實在無法見死不救，只好能救先救。
都市浪犬九成九都是閃躲怕人，圍獵行為多只出現於山區狗群，幾乎可以認定固定兩三隻結夥作案是被刻意訓練的。
可怕的不是工具惡犬，而是那不曉得是否存在、躲在暗處的冷血人類。
繼上星期的法國協助禁運制裁北韓出沒黃海後, 加拿大也以同一理由出沒沖繩海域了:
"日本放送協會（NHK）報導，在中國強化發展東海與南海時，加拿大意圖在以美國為主的安全保障框架肩負部分任務。
加拿大軍方表示，溫尼伯號今年9月以來在日本周邊海域針對北韓船舶海上交易等違法海上活動，進行警戒與監視。"
翻白眼:
"WTA（國際女子網球協會）今天發聲呼籲，彭帥的指控必須獲得全面、公平、透明的調查，而且中共不應該審查，外界對彭帥的人身安全感到擔憂，主席賽門（Steve Simon）稍早接受《紐約時報》訪問表示:「我們已經接到包括中國網協在內的多個消息來源透露，她現在安全、沒有受到人身威脅。」
不過賽門也說：「我的理解是她在北京，但我無法確認，因為我沒有直接和她交談。」包括WTA官員以及現役球員，沒有人能聯絡得到彭帥。"
COP26各國該有的認知:
"There are other reasons why coal has proven so hard for China to get rid of: mining is a big employer; coal power plants are heavily indebted and need to run down debts; the grid has long dragged its feet on integrating renewables; and nuclear power sites are limited to an extent by the availability of water and concerns about seismic activity. But China is also squeezed between fast energy demand growth, vulnerable overseas supply lines for natural gas and domestic shale gas reserves that are mostly in already water-scarce regions or in major agricultural areas like Sichuan. The nation’s reluctance to commit to phasing out coal before the 2040s should be understood in this context."
因為缺探而引發的缺電導致尿素生產短缺的問題已經從南韓的運輸業擴展影響到印度的農業了:
[ Satnam Singh, who farms wheat on 1.5 acres in the northern Indian state of Punjab, said rumors of shortages have prompted panicked farmers to buy urea and another fertilizer essential for winter-sown wheat, diammonium phosphate, at almost twice the original price. “Prices have gone through the roof. It’s a big problem,” Mr. Singh said.
In some places, farmers have been unable to buy fertilizer even after standing in long lines for days, said Vikram Singh, joint secretary of the All India Agricultural Workers Union, warning that the shortages could disrupt the growing season and lead to rising food prices.
India’s government has said that there are sufficient supplies of fertilizer and warned that anyone caught hoarding and selling on the black market would be punished. A spokesman at the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said officials were reviewing the supply targets for November but that the availability was expected to exceed demand.
The shortages of urea began escalating last month, when the Chinese government set new customs rules requiring inspection certificates for exporting fertilizer ingredients, including urea, effectively halting exports. China has been struggling to maintain a stable supply of the substance amid a shortage of coal. ]
這篇很多內容讓我想起了前幾年看過的後發優勢論與後發劣勢論:
"The problem is in part a marker of China’s success in pulling millions of people out of poverty through rapid industrialization and wealth generation. As its economy has grown into the world’s second largest, it has started to feature some of the problems that can be found in maturer Western economies, where incomes have stagnated, especially at the lower end. The one difference is that this is happening earlier in China’s development."
"As relative mobility has declined, inequality has worsened. In 1978, China’s top 10% of earners and bottom 50% each took home about a quarter of the country’s total income. By 2018, the top 10% made more than 40% of total income in China, while the bottom half got less than 15%, according to World Bank data.
In 2020, the top 1% of individuals owned about 30% of China’s wealth, up 10 percentage points from 2000. In the U.S., the share of wealth controlled by the top 1% increased only 2.5 percentage points to 35% during the same period, according to Credit Suisse Group AG."
居然還見了達賴的代表? 這點才真正讓我覺得這個團真的有問題...
"代表團此行首先拜訪印太司令阿基里諾（John Aquilino），之後前往菲律賓、台灣與印度，並與達賴喇嘛的代表會晤。"
日本也跟台灣一樣為應戰而打破軍種藩籬做整合了:
"中國在台灣周遭的軍事活動主要集中在東海和南海，一旦「台灣緊急事件」爆發，陸自的主要任務將是保衛釣魚台列嶼（日稱尖閣諸島）在內的「琉球群島」，運送物資到離島至關重要。陸自目前的後勤補給模式是以蘇聯入侵「北方四島」為準，並不適用於中國入侵南方離島的情況。
因此，日本防衛省決定交給陸自中、小型運輸艦，並由海自負責訓練陸自人員。"
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3736327
專政之下無兩制:
"其中第13條規定，數據處理者從事以下活動，應當按照官方有關規定，申報網路安全審查：包括匯聚掌握大量有關國家安全、經濟發展、公共利益的數據資源的網路平台營運商，在實施合併、重組、分立時，可能影響國家安全；處理100萬人以上個人資料的數據處理者，赴國外上市時；數據處理者赴香港上市時，可能影響國家安全。
此外，大型聯路平台營運商在境外設立總部或運營中心、研發中心時，應當向中國網信部門和主管部門報告。"
維尼特選大富翁正式開張~
"中媒《證券時報》分析，這81家今天將掛牌的企業，已被界定是「低估值、高研發投入、盈利能力較強，同時規模較小且成長性良好的企業」，主要集中在軟體、醫藥製造、專用設備製造等科技較強屬性行業。
這81家公司2020年加權淨資產收益率中位數為16.85%，比A股8%高出一倍以上，且其中29家去年加權淨資產收益率超過20%，達35.8%；連續7年獲利在15%以上。"
日本進一步圍堵：
「通訊與能源、金融等基建業者將相關重要設備引進日本時，政府得以國安理由對這些設備進行事前審查。報導認為，這項新制度是基於恐對日本基建的穩定運作造成影響的中國製產品、設備，先加以排除在外的考量。日本經濟產業省高層官員指稱，日本現行法律對以安保理由排除威脅國家參與的規範仍不足。
而為防止可用於新一代武器的尖端技術外洩，法案規定一旦被列為禁止公開的專利，即使過了一定時間，也不能公開其申請內容。日本將研究對這種專利申請者發放補償金的制度。」
確定名單居然是到返美才出爐，真的非常異常啊！
「此團成員除柯寧外，還包括參議員克雷波（Mike Crapo）、李伊（Mike Lee）、塔伯維爾（Tommy Tuberville）與眾議員眾議員龔薩雷斯（Tony Gonzales）、艾爾濟（Jake Ellzey）。」
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
