Perfume @Perfume@qoto.org
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
這次解放軍軍演規模破了去年年底拜登簽署軍援台灣時的71架次紀錄，看來小英這次出訪真的踩到中國痛腳：
＂國防部今天上午公布，自昨（10）日上午6時至今日上午6時，偵獲共機91架，其中逾越海峽中線及其延伸線進入西南及東南空域54架次；共艦12艘次持續在台海周邊活動，目前尚有8艘持續在台灣周邊海域活動。
根據國防部公布的航跡圖，進入台灣週邊的各型機包含1架次「TB-001」無人機、8架次「蘇愷30」戰機、10架次「殲10」戰機、2架次「殲11」戰機、10架次「殲16」戰機、1架次「BZK-005」無人機、1架次「空警200」預警機、1架次「運8」反潛機、2架次「轟6」轟炸機、1架次「運8」遠干機、1架次「空警500」預警機、1架次「運油20」空中加油機。
此外，另有15架次「殲15」戰機在台灣防空識別區東部現蹤，「殲15」戰機是中共海軍的主力艦載戰機，顯示中共海軍「山東號」航空母艦目前仍在台灣東部進行演訓。＂
資深民主隊友的英國很快對法國馬的綏靖態度做出輿論應對：
＂支持台灣有3大理由，首先是關於全球政治自由的未來，其次是全球權力平衡，第3是攸關全球經濟。＂
這次外洩扯後腿效果顯著:
"The probe reflects the U.S. government’s deep concern that the leaks disclosed sensitive information about the war in Ukraine, intercepted communications about U.S. allies, and American penetration of Russian military plans. The accompanying diplomatic outreach also highlights the blow these leaks could deliver to close relationships the U.S. maintains with allies and security partners. "
這個兩年前被看出的趨勢看來是大致抵定了:
"在房地產、製造業都低迷的情況下，中國未來經濟的增長點只剩軍工和卡脖子行業 。他分析指出，隨著地緣政治衝突上升，戰爭風險上升，跟戰爭、國防有關的行業就變成了新的經濟增長點，原來靠全球化外貿驅動的南方經濟，在接下來十幾、二十年將退居二線，北方的戰爭驅動經濟模式將重新出現。"
這次洩漏的目標效果更像是在北約內埋下猜疑，而非動搖正在交戰的俄烏兩國：
＂And the mere fact that the materials leaked — and in particular the confirmation they offered that the U.S. government spies on allies and adversaries alike — may prove damaging to the generally unified coalition that has emerged to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion. It may also make allies think twice about sharing sensitive information.＂
＂Officials in Washington have described the documents’ release as a major intelligence breach, but in Kyiv and Moscow, there is agreement on two things: The information is suspect, and the goal is subterfuge. They just don’t agree on who is behind it.＂
https://www.nytimes.com/article/leaked-documents-ukraine-russia-war.html?smid=url-share
照外洩機密看，北約各國援助烏克蘭軍機的理由更充分了：
＂Since those early days, Ukrainian air defenses have held off an onslaught of Russian missile and drone attacks. But those systems, according to American military officials and the leaked documents, are rapidly depleting, potentially offering a window for Russian planes to do severe damage.
Air defenses are layered, with different types of weapons designed to intercept aircraft and missiles flying at different altitudes — from low-flying helicopters to high-altitude bombers and cruise missiles. In Ukraine, these defensive weapons have also been used to target drones and cruise missiles as Ukrainian forces have tried to defend their cities from Russia’s campaign against the country’s infrastructure.＂
洩密裡的黑海各方空軍交手風雲:
"這份文件詳述10月至今年2月底期間，俄羅斯對美英法偵察機的數次反應，其中包括12月30日，另1架英國「鉚釘」偵察機在2架英國「颱風」（Typhoon）戰鬥機伴隨下，遭到俄羅斯飛機攔截，俄機甚至飛近至100英尺（約30.5公尺）以內。這份文件印有SECRET/NOFORN標記，代表其內容不會與非美國公民共享。
在另一起例子中，1架美國MQ-9無人偵察機於2月22日遭攔截，當時俄機飛進約100英尺範圍內。3月14日，2架俄羅斯蘇愷-27攔截1架美國MQ-9，向無人機傾倒燃料並最終與其相撞。美國官員表示，這次碰撞促使美軍以遙控方式讓無人機墜入離克里米亞海岸約90公里的黑海中。"
海軍不甘示弱讓飛彈快艇也來參一咖:
"海軍陸戰隊戒護海鋒飛彈部隊進入陣地、完成放列，並以雄風反艦飛彈待命追瞄，透過聯合情監偵隨時掌握海上敵情動態，全天候保持高度警覺，戮力守護家園。
同時間，海軍數艘FACG光六飛彈快艇緊急出港，演練戰術運動及接戰程序，強化突發狀況應處，"
雖然本島大部分都對這次軍演都抱持知道但不緊張狀態, 還是有必要認識一下中國正逐漸拉高侵略預備:
"國家政策研究基金會副研究員揭仲向中央社表示，中共今年初就宣稱山東艦已完備相關訓練，顯然這次是正式戰備前的遠航訓練，並結合環台島戰備警巡和聯合利劍演習。他指出，中共航艦艦載機數量推估約24至32架，此次4架殲15戰機所隱含的就是1個戰術編隊，對台具有實質威脅。
揭仲提到，如果山東艦正式戰備，代表中國將有兩個航空母艦戰鬥群可以派遣，未來將至少有1艘在西太平洋地區巡弋，意味台灣東部戰力保存（海軍疏泊區、空軍花蓮佳山基地等）受到嚴峻挑戰，由於航艦戰鬥群位於岸置反艦飛彈射程外，應對手段有限，僅能以戰機搭載飛彈或以潛艦應處，相當棘手。
前空軍副司令張延廷告訴中央社記者，此次軍演為「東航艦、西戰機」對台東西夾擊，且中共此次海巡與海軍雙管齊下，意圖將台灣海峽內海化，同時也對台灣東部戰力保存造成嚴峻威脅，為了確保屆時戰機能夠正常起降，軍方應儘速推動花蓮、台東等地區的戰備道建設。"
順便補當年華腦電影圈怎樣用迷信與怪力亂神當藉口做掉魔法阿嬤的....
找不到之前貼的深圳教會逃去濟州島, 索性放這裡:
"The United Nations refugee agency counted more than 118,000 asylum seekers from China in 2021, the most recent year for which complete data is available, up from 15,362 in 2012, the year Mr. Xi took power."
歐媒沒有拿美國馬歇爾計劃裡法國是歐洲大陸國家裡拿最多美金重建這點來吐槽馬克洪算是很節制了:
"Il n’a néanmoins pas abordé la question des garanties de sécurité américaines pour le continent, qui dépend fortement de la protection et de l’aide militaire des Etats-Unis dans le contexte de la première grande guerre terrestre en Europe depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale."
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-incite-europeens-etats-unis-chine/
法國馬在中國經濟下坡此刻走阿九馬路線能否獲取利益就不好說了:
"And Mr. Macron brought 50 French business executives with him to Beijing in an obvious effort to bolster commercial ties."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/us/politics/china-us-europe.html?smid=url-share
也是得等歐盟跟法國走了才敢露出土匪本色:
" It was only after Mr. Macron, Ms. von der Leyen and the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers had departed Beijing that China launched a more concerted military response—12 days of live-fire drills off the mainland Chinese coast facing Taiwan and air and sea patrols around Taiwan. "
對台灣而言，想走戴高樂路線的法國馬看來跟熱衷九二共識的台灣馬一樣糟糕：
[ On the issue of the island democracy of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory in increasingly bellicose terms, Mr. Macron was notably reticent. He said that the issue was not for him to judge, that he did not detect any Chinese inclination to “overreact,” and that, during a visit where Mr. Xi had shown such unusual hospitality, it was not the moment “to mix everything up.” ]
二戰以來，自由民主國家的公民到極權國度常有淪為人質風險：
“It also drew heavily from an existing law, the Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage-Taking Accountability Act, which details U.S. government criteria for who is considered wrongfully detained, processes to help free American detainees and hostages, sanctions options and engagement with a detainee’s family.
The law was named in honor of Robert Levinson, an American detained in Iran since 2007 and who is believed to have died there.”
曾經鉅額援助中國的台灣、日本如今都成為被中國政府攻擊的目標，中國政府就是東郭狼：
“But in Japan’s case, it has become practically commonplace. According to Japan’s Foreign Ministry, the Astellas executive was the 17th Japanese detained by Chinese intelligence since 2015.
The spate of detentions follows the adoption of an anti-espionage law that took effect in 2014, a year after Xi Jinping became president. “
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-repeated-detention-of-japanese-citizens-raises-tensions-3edc7b3d
共軍趁小英自美返台時一口氣拉高騷擾規模：
“Taiwan’s military said it had detected 42 Chinese military aircraft and eight Chinese naval vessels near the island between 6 a.m. and 11 a.m. local time on Saturday, with 29 of the aircraft entering southwestern areas of its air defense zone and crossing the median line of the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwan from China.”
The exercises mark an escalation in Beijing’s response to Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen’s U.S. visit https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-military-greets-return-of-taiwans-president-with-live-fire-drills-e6737c7c?st=ot8qpgceff0sinl&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
賣台馬朝跪之行衍生的政治倫理問題:
"台灣制憲基金會認為，在中國加劇對台武力威脅的當下，馬英九主張台灣屬於中國，等同於為中國提供武力侵略台灣的論據。如果這樣的主張是可以容許的，中國對台灣使用武力，將不構成侵略。這樣的主張，等於為野心獨裁政權的領土擴張，粉飾太平，是不見容於自由世界的。"
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
