TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
🔔 The number of the day is 150.
The russian occupiers have committed more than 150 gross violations of the operation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant since the beginning of the large-scale invasion.
This was announced by the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal.
It will be recalled that due to russian shelling, the ZNPP went into emergency mode eight times: it started diesel generators to cool the reactors and avoid a disaster.
The enemy temporarily seized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and has been engaged in nuclear blackmail for 754 days.
@ukrainejournal
💪On the approaches to Kyiv: a 21 year old Ukrainian fighter destroyed a cruise missile!
In the photo that went viral on all social networks, Oleksiy is a National Guardsman who shot down one of the cruise missiles that russia attacked Kyiv with this week.
He could hear it, then he saw it. He had only a couple of seconds to launch and hit the enemy iron.
They found the hero and asked him about the destruction of the russian cruise missile.
A very humble hero!
@ukrainejournal
Fabian Hoffmann on the role of "risk" in ongoing warfare and highlights the West's problematic approach to risk management.
ℹ️ The West's approach to supporting Ukraine, especially such key players as Germany and the USA, was to supply the necessary equipment while minimizing the risks of escalation.
ℹ️ These considerations were brought to the fore when discussing Taurus and ATACMS deliveries. Scholz and Biden have made it clear that they consider the risks associated with the supply of this type of weapons to be too significant.
ℹ️ The desire to eliminate risks for one's country and people is understandable. After all, this is the oath they took when they took office. However, this approach ignores important lessons from the history of the Cold War about how to deal with the crisis we are facing now.
ℹ️ In the current situation, there are no solutions without risks. This is the essence of the challenge we face in our relations with Russia. Decision makers must evaluate the risks they can or "should" take and those they should avoid. A categorical refusal to take risks is not a manifestation of leadership.
ℹ️ During the Cold War, Western leaders understood this. This is why the US, France and Britain ignored Khrushchev's ultimatum in 1958 to withdraw their troops from West Berlin, and why the US did not let Soviet tanks through at Checkpoint Charlie in 1961.
ℹ️ Those who made decisions were aware that this confrontation could turn into a military confrontation. However, they understood that it is impossible to give up prematurely. This would demonstrate a lack of determination and a penchant for blackmail, which would weaken future negotiating positions.
ℹ️ During the Cold War, there were several crises of this nature. These scenarios are called "risk competitions". This type of crisis involves the participation of at least two nuclear powers and tends to escalate until one of the parties gives in, leading to a de-escalation of the crisis.
ℹ️ Risk-based competition highlights the paradox of the nuclear age: to prevent nuclear conflict, you must signal to your counterpart that you are, in principle, willing to wage nuclear war and thus take some risk – even if neither side wants this result.
ℹ️ This logic influenced nuclear powers during the Cold War and remains very relevant today, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. Both NATO and Russia possess significant nuclear arsenals, making direct military confrontation virtually unthinkable.
ℹ️ And yet the West must convincingly demonstrate that it is not afraid of confrontation with Russia. An open display of risk aversion and fear of escalation could encourage aggressive behavior by Putin and facilitate Russian escalation, possibly also directly against NATO countries.
ℹ️ This is why the current position of Scholz and Biden is so unfortunate. They are right that an escalation caused by the supply of Taurus/ATACMS cannot be ruled out - just as, by the way, was the case with previous arms deliveries.
But the risks associated with supply must be carefully weighed against the risks associated with non-supply, and not just in a military sense.
ℹ️ The real damage from the refusal to supply Taurus/ATACMS can be seen primarily in the political consequences of this decision.
First, it will undermine the West's confidence in deterring Russia.
How can we convince Russia of our steadfast resolve when the crisis may escalate (as well as escalations in the future) with such apparent intolerance for such risks?
Second, it sends alarming signals to our Eastern European allies.
How can states bordering Russia trust their defense to countries that signal that they put their own security above all else?
ℹ️ In this context, it is not surprising that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland talks about the potential need for US allies to start their own nuclear weapons programs. Poland is using its nuclear latency to signal an urgent need for credible security commitments.
@ukrainejournal
FROM THE ANALYST
GOOD NEWS FOR UKRAINE
France has announced that it’s about to use emergency powers to requisition production facilities to manufacture weapons for itself and Ukraine.
The EU has granted €130m to Rheinmettal to improve factories for 155mm shell production in Spain, Romania, France and Germany.
The Czech government said that it has now been pledged enough money to increase the shell buying target from 800,000 to 1,500,000.
This has enabled the Ukrainian army to increase its artillery usage because it knows it’s getting new shells from other sources. The need to conserve for an emergency has been substantially reduced.
Interesting photos released showing how dispersed the Ukrainian building facilities are for the Bohdana Self Propelled Gun system. This makes it so much harder for the Russians to destroy production.
Ukrainian trainees returned to Warsaw from Suda Bay in Crete - a Greek/ NATO base where the Greek S300 were stationed. These are planned for transfer to Ukraine - having trained the operators it seems that transfer is already underway.
Russia admits that 10,000 Syrian volunteers in the Russian army basically vanished into the distance and haven’t been tracked down.
Russian artillery pieces since the invasion have fallen from 23,500 total in use and stored - only 4,500 are estimated to to be left operational. In addition the losses of SPG’s have forced the army to resort to older towed artillery.
Furthermore there is zero indication that Russia is building any kind of towed or self propelled artillery. Nor does it have spare barrels to refit worn guns with. They just don’t have enough of the precision equipment, the alloys or the capacity to do so.
NOT SUCH GOOD NEWS
Why is Russia using Starlink? How has this been allowed? Why is it Ukrainian systems are operating at half speed? Why have Russian systems not been turned off? WTF is Musk up to and why is he allowed to get away with it?
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
@ukrainejournal
‼️ Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, asserted that Russia was aware of the preparation of a terrorist attack on its territory, as early as February 15, 2024.
Speaking at the Third International Forum on Strategic Communications, Budanov stated that intelligence information regarding the preparations passed through the group in Syria to Moscow, debunking any claims of suddenness.
👉 Budanov highlighted that Russia knew the origins of the combat groups and their routes into the aggressor state.
❗️ He outlined potential motives behind Russia's actions, suggesting they either orchestrated the event to remove high-ranking officials or underestimated its magnitude, intending to blame Ukraine.
❗️ Budanov criticized the Kremlin for shifting narratives regarding the incident near Moscow's "Crocus City," attempting to link Ukraine to the terrorist attack.
☝️ While condemning terrorist acts against civilians, Budanov emphasized that he does not endorse such actions, even against adversaries.
☝️ Budanov further emphasized Russia's aim to create controlled chaos, but noted the failure of any organization to manage chaos effectively, emphasizing the unpredictability of such actions.
@ukrainejournal
Some NATO countries don't understand the importance of stopping Russia in Ukraine.
https://kyivindependent.com/some-nato-countries-dont-understand-urgency-of-stopping-russia-says-swedish-fm/
Happy to see Russia importing gasoline from Belarus.
Large numbers of POWs were sexually abused
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19566
5000 civilians have been tortured
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19602
Happy reunion with his cat
🇧🇾 Lukashenko questioned Putin's claim that a window on the border with Ukraine had been "prepared in advance" for the Crocus City Hall terrorists
He told state media that from the first minutes of reports of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, local special services began to act in Belarus, and the terrorists "saw this" and "turned around and went to the Ukrainian-Russian border."
According to Lukashenka, quoted by BelTa, it appears that the terrorists initially planned to leave Russia for Belarus.
@liveukraine_media
🇩🇪Germany announces a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, which includes:
— 30 RQ-35 Heidrun UAVs
— 14 Vector UAVs
— 5 anti-drone sensors and jammers
— 180 RF 360 fieldkits – drone detection systems
— 1 Bergepanzer 2
— 2 bridge-laying tanks Biber
— 5 Bronco ATTC ARVs
— 9 Bronco ATTC command vehicles
— 6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros tankers (water / fuel)
— 9 mine ploughs
— 1 Pionierpanzer 2A1 Dachs AEV
— 6 WiSENT 1 MC
— 3 border protection vehicles
— 2,056 RGW90 MATADOR
— 70 GMG
— ammunition for LEOPARD 2 A6
— 4,000 shells 155mm artillery ammunition
— 24,000 40mm ammunition for automatic grenade launchers
— 1 surveillance system for satellite communication
— 330 IR cameras
— 3,000 camouflage nets
— 2,000 camouflage ponchos
— 2 emergency power generators
Missiles for Patriot air defense systems, 20 Marder armored vehicles, 1 Bronco ATTC command vehicle, and 70 infrared cameras are also being prepared for delivery.
@liveukraine_media
Evicted from his warehouse
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/mike-lindell-just-got-the-boot/55243/
Trump has a new gag order and may already have violated it.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/let-the-idiot-rant/55233/
He has never been intelligent.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/theres-something-wrong-with-jim-jordan/55226/
She might end up in trouble herself
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/alina-habba-youre-next/55240/
John Eastman has disharmony hearings and a criminal trial to face
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/down-goes-john-eastman/55235/
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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