TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
A new report from Oslo-based Arctic Securities estimates today that around 20% of Russia’s refining capacity has been knocked offline with as much as 3m more barrels per day at risk from increasingly daring raids by Ukrainian drones. The 20% estimate is a significant jump from last week’s 15% estimate from NATO and comes as flooding over the weekend took out another Russian refinery.
Kyiv’s strategy to target its enemy’s oil refinery infrastructure has also forced Russia, traditionally a net exporter of gasoline, to tap its neighbours for emergency fuel supplies.
“Recent Russian efforts to import gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan indicate that Russia is likely increasingly concerned about the immediate domestic supply of distillate petroleum products following Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries,” the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a note yesterday.
“As of now, 10 refineries have been struck and estimations suggest total capacity hit YTD is above 1m barrels per day, which represents ~20% of total capacity, with another 3m barrels per day at risk,” Arctic Securities reported in a note to clients, which included a map of the attacks (above).
🇺🇦@ukraine_report 🇺🇦🔱 Liz
🇨🇭🇺🇦Switzerland allocates 5 billion Swiss francs (a little more than 5 billion euros) for the reconstruction of Ukraine. This sum must be committed by 2035, and 1.5 billion Swiss francs have already been allocated for 2028.
The decision was made by the Federal Council on Wednesday, April 10.
In this way, Switzerland is sending a "strong signal of solidarity" with the victims and contributing to stability throughout Europe.
In particular, this money will help prevent migration flows. According to the Swiss government, the total cost of restoration work is estimated at around 440 billion Swiss francs.
According to the World Bank, $486 billion is needed to restore Ukraine. This assessment is based on a damage and needs analysis, co-financed by Switzerland.
Switzerland is already supporting projects in Ukraine aimed at restoring destroyed civil infrastructure in the energy, road and medical sectors.
In addition, Switzerland and Ukraine jointly launched a large-scale political recovery process at the Lugano Conference on Recovery of Ukraine in July 2022.
🇺🇦@ukraine_report 🇺🇦🔱 Liz
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Barbra Streisand, Timothy Snyder and others. More than 35 artists, activists and scientists called on the US Congress to help Ukraine.
"If Russia breaks through, it will be our fault. And then we will realize what we have lost. Everything that Ukraine does for us can be reversed. If Ukraine is defeated, we will be in a much more dangerous world. It will be a world where we can expect war in Europe and war in Asia. A world in which Russia can cut off food supplies to the Middle East and Africa, which Ukraine now supplies. A world without rules and a world full of nuclear weapons," said a joint statement published by CNN.
Among the signatories: Barbra Streisand, Timothy Snyder, Misha Collins, Francis Fukuyama, Imagine Dragons band, Alyssa Milano, Sean Penn, Sergey Plokhi, Catherine Winnick and others.
The full text of the artists' appeal to the Congress is available at the link .
🇺🇦@ukraine_report 🇺🇦🔱 Liz
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/opinions/sean-penn-barbra-streisand-imgaine-dragons-congress-ukraine-snyder/index.html
🔭👀 Ukrainian intelligence officers are looking for Bastion missile systems with Zircon missiles in Crimea
The MoD Ukraine as well as the Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, published an appeal to the population, especially in Crimea, to submit information through the chatbot eVorog about detected missile systems.
According to Fedorov, Russians launch Zircon missiles, which reach Ukrainian cities in minutes, from the Bastion missile systems, and they have already attacked the Kyiv region at least twice.
“According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russians are trying to penetrate the air defense with Zircon missiles. Zircon missiles are launched using Bastion systems from different parts of Crimea,”
Mykhailo Fedorov said.
He asked Crimean residents to provide any information about the systems: missile launch sites, storage locations, missile storage sites, refueling stations, and information about operators.
@ukrainejournal
He returned from Germany to defend his Motherland - The story of Dmytro
The motivation and patriotism of this 19-year-old boy can be written about in history textbooks, so that even from the school desk, children could see where they should take an example for imitation.
Despite his young age, Dmytro made a willful decision to change his peaceful life abroad to serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
▪️"I saw in the news about the events taking place in Ukraine and without much thought I decided to return home," the paratrooper says with a smile. Dima was born in Zaporizhzhia, but over time, his parents decided to move to Germany, therefore, until the age of 18, the boy lived and studied abroad.
Dmytro's life and plans, like each of us, were changed by one date: February 24, 2022, after which he could no longer stay away. At first, Dima returned home, and then enlisted. "I am not killing normal people, but destroying the enemy who is turning our country into a complete ruin," the paratrooper confidently asserts.
Dmytro is a true example of courage and bravery, for many years he managed to preserve his love for his native land and responsibility for the Motherland. We are proud of our servicemen!
Born to win!
Public relations service 81 separate airmobile brigade
@ukrainejournal
Not enough competition to keep prices down
https://open.substack.com/pub/robertreich/p/why-are-we-still-suffering-inflation?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
From "The Analyst":
BAD NEWS FOR RUSSIA
Due to flooding in Orsk, the Voronezh-M strategic missile attack warning system station has ceased operations, according to a public page "VChK-OGPU."
The station, located near the village of Kumak, 20 km from the old city, is facing a high risk of flooding due to breaches in the dams.
Why should this matter?
As a result of the shutdown, tracking launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles in the southern direction has become problematic. This is one of the few effective early warning systems the Russians have, principally designed to detect SLBM launches from the Indian Ocean area. Their space based satellites are notoriously unreliable and their ability to correctly ascertain if a nuclear attack is under way has long been limited and less than ideal.
Russia has a terrible history of false alarms and bearing in mind that both the US and Russia sit on world ending stockpiles of weapons and both use launch on warning of attack, knowing with confidence that an attacks is real is something of a big deal.
If the radar station is permanently flooded, it will be challenging to quickly restore the radars capabilities, with estimates suggesting it could take several years to rectify the situation.
The United States redirected thousands of weapons to Ukraine earlier this month, that it seized from an Iranian group attempting to smuggle the munitions to Yemen’s Houthi militants.
More than 5,000 AK-47 rifles, machine guns, sniper rifles and rocket launchers, as well as more than 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition, were transferred to the Ukrainian armed forces on April 4, according to CENTCOM.
What a delicious irony that these weapons, largely supplied to Iran by Russia have found their way home. After everything the Iranians have been responsible for against Ukraine and their lies over their alliance with Russia, it’s just a small but poetic piece of justice.
In another even more shocking diplomatic and political twist to how Russian aggression has affected European nations, the Swiss Federal President announced in her speech yesterday that, in the event of any attack on Switzerland which has just joined the wartime air defence alliance with neutral Austria, that Switzerland would work with and assist NATO. ‘An attack on us would mean we were no longer neutral and would act accordingly’ were the gist of her words.
For Switzerland this is an earthquake in its public stance on neutrality. And yet extraordinary as it may seem, inside Switzerland where once such pronouncements would have been seen as sacrilege, it’s caused hardly a stir. Yes the country would have to be attacked, but even so it’s the fact that they know who the enemy is and that they’re willing to cooperate with NATO, that’s a huge change in public perception. Austria has been neutral since the end of the post WW2 occupation in 1955. It was part of the deal when the Russian forces withdrew from Vienna. Yet it’s long been understood in the event of a war it would fight with the West if attacked. After Sweden and Finland joined NATO many thought Austria would too, but Vienna has held on to its neutral status - many international organisations are based there that require a neutral state to feel safe in. And it has an extremely right wing tilt to its politics in recent years that has less of a problem with certain governments that is perhaps ideal.
From "The Analyst":
RUSSIA’S INTERNAL CRISIS
A medium sized dam collapses, not from anything other than neglect. There is no money to maintain such structures.
The level of water is horrendous - Orsk and Orenburg are flooded. Some 250km of land as much as 5km or more has been flooded. It’s the worst humanitarian disaster inside Russia since Chernobyl in 1986.
On the border with Belarus another bridge collapsed - it’s been needing repair for over a decade but has been ignored. Such tales of woe in Russia emerge almost every other day. There is no money to pay for basic maintenance- the war against Ukraine is sucking the country dry.
The attacks on refineries by Ukraine have started to pay dividends. Russia has been forced to buy a staggering 100,000 tons of refined petroleum and diesel from Kazakhstan because its own refineries have no capacity to sustain domestic demand. Prices are starting to rise.
Russia has been one of those countries that produces so much oil it has never had to think about a strategic reserve of fuel or oil.
America has the SPR - millions of barrels stored in old wells around Texas and elsewhere that acts as an emergency reserve in case of war or crisis. It was mostly established during the days after the oil embargo’s of the 1960-70’s.
Even though the US is now a net exporter of oil the strategic reserves are a vital part of the national security strategy of the US. They often get used to balance prices if they rise too high.
Russia has no such thing. It pumps it out of the ground, exports it as crude or refines it as finished products for domestic use and export. There’s so much in the ground nobody ever thought to be bothered about saving any. In practice if it was needed you simply drilled for it and produced it.
It never crossed anyone’s mind that the refineries would be so badly damaged that they would in effect cease to function - and with it much of Russian refining capacity would be gone. One more of those unexpected things that happens in war nobody planned for. Russian petroleum is basically a just in time product - it’s produced as fast as it’s needed and arrives just in time. There is no back up. Ukraine truly found a weak spot in Russia’s oil industry. And the worst part is it’s not easy to fix any of these systems - even with Iranian help.
And even worse news - the revenue from Russian oil and gas is continuing to fall.
The first quarter of this year shows a 41% reduction in revenue - more than 50% if priced in dollars.
Even more annoying for the Russians is that the US is focused on making sure that no matter the price of oil, Russia gets no more than $60pb under the sanctions regime.
The rest of Russia’s economic outlook is deceptive. Charts show what appears to be sharp increases in domestic non-oil & gas revenue, making up 66% of the total (the reverse of the position in 2021). Bit there are two realities to that. If oil income falls then domestic revenue automatically looks better on a chart as the percentage grows.
The revenue being generated internally is higher, but so is inflation, and as we discussed before, the ‘printing’ of money to supply cash to pay the governments debts has its own dangerous alchemy. And that is still playing out in high hidden and official inflation and interest rates, as well as chronic currency devaluations.
What is happening is that war is inflating state paid for production of weapons. The state pays - to make, to operate and maintain what it buys. What it is producing is war - it’s not making anything that brings any return. It’s a total cost, there is no longevity in this type of economy.
Once this war ends, Russia faces a catastrophic industrial collapse as the state stops pouring billions into weapons. Russia is spending almost 35% of its GDP on the war and it’s still not winning.
Russia is not making a profit. Its 2021 revenue was a profit of nearly 10 trillion roubles. By the time of the end of 2023 the country is in the negative - almost 3.5 trillion roubles in losses.
Russia is selling less oil, far less gas, exports little else and has become deeply dependent on China for more than should be considered healthy.
Its oil industry is in trouble, its economy is driven only by military requirements and its losses financially show it cannot afford the war - despite the billions being spent.
Russia is in a bubble. Eventually bubbles burst and Russia will have to face that day when it happens - and when it does it’s going to be a national disaster. Short term gain for long term pain. War is expensive. Surviving it is even more so.
HOW RUSSIA MANIPULATES THE NEWS AND JUSTIFIES ITS MISSILE STRIKES
▫️ Today, information appeared on the Internet that unknown persons in Odesa region had sealed a siren that notifies the civilian population about a missile threat with foam.
▫️ The news was immediately picked up by russian TG channels and they began to write about the futility of air raid warnings because "the russian army allegedly only hits military targets, and sirens are used by Zelenskyy to promote military hysteria."
‼️ Such claims are cynical lies of russian propaganda, which chaotically shells the territory of Ukraine with missiles, bombs, kamikaze drones and artillery on a daily basis.
▫️ By spreading such fakes, the terrorist country is trying to justify its missile terror and shelling of the Ukrainian civilian population.
▫️ As of February 24, 2024, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, almost 11,000 civilians have been killed and nearly 20,000 injured since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, and this number is increasing every day as russia continues to chaotically shell residential buildings, kindergartens, and schools.
‼️ Do not fall for enemy manipulations and do not ignore the air raid alerts!
@ukrainejournal
Ukraine should continue to disable russian refineries, — Kurt Volker.
He believes that it is important for russians to feel the essence of the war, and this feeling will directly affect the level of support for Putin and the war in general.
“People need to realize that there is a war going on. Every day russia attacks Ukrainian energy facilities, they attack Kharkiv, they attack civilians, they attack everything. And to suggest that Ukraine should not be fighting back against things that are empowering russia's military capability, I find it inexplicable that we would suggest this,” stated the American diplomat and former US State Department Special Representative for Ukraine in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
@ukrainejournal
THOSE ARE MILITARY TARGETS!!!
😡 A senior US defence official says Ukraine should not strike russia's oil and gas sector (what she calls "civilian targets") because it is "one of the elements of European democracy".
Russian propaganda in the US congress. Putin must be pleased!
- For avoidance of any doubt. Oil refineries are legitimate military targets and Ukraine has the right to strike these in self defence under international law. The oil refineries produce the fuel for the russian military and provide the funding for the war machine.
⚫ An Israeli Arab brilliantly rips into the other Arabs who want to "liberate" him from the "big bad Israelis"
🇮🇱 @israel_report
Senior sergeant Davyd Stoyanov died on November 16, 2023 in the Zaporizhzhia region. The defender was 24 years old.
David was born in the city of Yuzhnoukrain, Mykolaiv Oblast. He studied at the Kryvyi Rih Vocational College of the National Aviation University. He was fond of programming and repairing equipment. Studied English. He also had a musical education, played the flute.
In 2019, he joined the military by signing a contract. Served in the National Guard.
With the beginning of a full-scale invasion, he mastered the profession of sapper.
"Until his last breath, he did not panic. Even when he was seriously wounded and realized that these were his last moments of life, he recorded a video. In it, he confessed his love to his girlfriend..." said mother Liliya Stoyanova.
David is survived by his parents, three sisters, a brother and his girlfriend.
US Republicans urge Ukraine aid vote, after 'Russian propaganda' warnings
Former U.S. President Donald Trump's secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, added his voice on Monday to growing calls from prominent Republicans to pass billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine, after some party members accused aid opponents of succumbing to Russian propaganda.
Democratic President Joe Biden's request for $95 billion for Ukraine, Israel and other allies passed the U.S. Senate with 70% support but has been stalled for weeks in the House of Representatives as Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to allow a vote.
As lawmakers returned to Washington from a two-week break on Monday, Johnson gave no word of any plans for a vote on Biden's supplemental request.
Pompeo, a former House member, issued a public letter on Monday urging Johnson to bring up the bill in the House.
"We encourage you to lead with conviction and bring the aid package to a vote," Pompeo said in a letter written with John Walter, president of the Hudson Institute, where Pompeo is a fellow.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-republicans-urge-ukraine-aid-vote-after-russian-propaganda-warnings/ar-BB1lhQtL?ocid=sapphireappshare
(Click below to read the article) - Rory
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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