TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
Production at Russian refineries has dropped to a 12-year low due to Ukrainian drone attacks, reports The Moscow Times.
By the end of 2024, oil refining at Russian facilities is projected to reach 266.9 million tons, the lowest level since 2012, when 265.4 million tons were processed.
A series of drone attacks throughout 2024 forced unscheduled equipment repairs, significantly impacting refinery operations.
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Transnistria has also declared a state of emergency. Cheap Russian gas is not only a source of heat and light for the separatist statelet, but the basis of its entire economy. Transnistria’s exports of electricity generated from gas bring in valuable revenue, facilitate the operation of nearly one hundred industrial enterprises, and underwrite the legitimacy of the local authorities by ensuring utility bills remain low.
All of this made gas Moscow’s chief source of influence in the region—even more so than a small Russian military garrison whose combat readiness is questionable. That appears to be why Chișinău remained convinced the Kremlin would find a way to continue to pump gas to Transnistria.
Rising gas prices will inevitably feed through into price inflation for other goods and services, angering Moldovans. That unhappiness will damage the popularity of the pro-European Union ruling party at parliamentary elections that will take place within six months. Nevertheless, the current government does not appear to be prepared to implement any significant changes.
Indeed, there is little in the way of public discussion about the broader opportunities that an end of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria may open up for Moldova. Instead of focusing on the cost and benefits of being able to unify the country, Chișinău simply repeats that its main priority is joining the EU. Yet if there’s one thing that would accelerate Moldova’s EU accession, it’s resolving the long-running separatist conflict.
Moldova’s Energy Crisis Could Pave the Way for Reunification - Carnegie Endowment
If separatist Transnistria is deprived of the cheap Russian gas that keeps its economy afloat, it would hand Moldova a historic opportunity to reunify the country.
The Moldovan authorities have announced a state of emergency ahead of a likely end to Russian natural gas supplies via Ukraine from January 1, 2025. Cutting off that gas will not only cause problems for Moldova, but also for the [unrecognised] breakaway state of Transnistria that has long been dependent on cheap Russian gas.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gas supplies have been Russia’s main instrument for exerting influence over both Chișinău and Tiraspol. However, it looks like Moscow is losing interest in the region, and is not planning to go to any great lengths to keep the gas flowing. For the Moldovan authorities, that opens up nothing less than the possibility of reunification with Transnistria, which has been ruled independently since a separatist conflict following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, Chișinău does not appear to believe that the Kremlin will really abandon Transnistria without a fight. Nor does it have a convincing plan to deal with the looming crisis.
Despite appearing to take many in Moldova off guard, an end to Russian gas supplies to Moldova via Ukraine is a scenario that has been in the cards for many months. Ukraine warned in January 2024 that it was not planning to extend the transit agreement for Russian gas across its territory due to expire at the start of 2025.
Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom has not had a monopoly on the Moldovan gas market since 2022, when the Kremlin cut supplies to Moldova by a third, citing problems caused by Ukrainian bombardment. Faced with a major energy crisis, Chișinău redirected all the remaining Russian gas to Transnistria, and started buying its own gas from European providers. While this allowed Chișinău to claim it was no longer dependent on Gazprom, Moldova continued buying cheap electricity from Transnistria that had been produced from Russian gas.
Of course, in an emergency, Moldova could purchase electricity from neighboring Romania, but that would be significantly more expensive than the current arrangement, triggering price rises for consumers, and the government would prefer to avoid the sort of public anger that would inevitably generate as it prepares for 2025 parliamentary elections. The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity already looks unlikely to retain its majority.
Nor can the Moldovan authorities afford to ignore a crisis in Transnistria. After her re-election earlier this year, Moldovan President Maia Sandu said she intended to reunite the country, and the government has promised that if necessary, it will buy European gas to keep the lights on in Transnistria. That means consumers in Transnistria will likely see gas prices rise.
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I guess their Christmas attack on Kyiv left them with no missiles for awhile
This is how Rivne welcomed Azovstal defender Artur Niverchuk, who spent 884 days in Russian captivity
Over two years, he was transferred through eight prisons and, on his birthday, was sentenced to life imprisonment.
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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