TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

PARIS (AP) — Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French surveillance aircraft patrolling in international airspace over the Black Sea, a signal of increasingly aggressive behavior from Moscow, French defense officials said Thursday.

“Russian air traffic control threatened to shoot down a French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” the French defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said on RTL radio.

A French military spokesman, Col. Pierre Gaudillière, said Lecornu was referring to an incident in mid-November that involved one of France’s four giant Airborne Warning and Control System, or AWACS, surveillance aircraft that was flying over international waters in the Black Sea.

Gaudillière described the incident as unprecedented for French pilots in that region.

“It was a particularly aggressive radio exchange,” he added. “It’s a first.”

Two other officials said the exchange was in English and that Russian air traffic control said its forces would “destroy” the French aircraft. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the classified details.

In his radio interview, Lecornu said Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union’s behavior during the Cold War.

“The behavior of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said.

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIA CLAIMS KRYNKY ELIMINATED…

During a televised briefing with Shoigu, who had just claimed that all Ukrainian forces had been removed from Krynky, Putin actually disagreed and told him that he’d spoken to the commander of the Dnipro Group of Forces responsible - and he’d said the operation was ongoing.
First that shows you Shoigu painting a picture for Putin that’s telling him what he wants to hear. Secondly it tells you Putin is ‘doing a Stalin’ and bypassing the chain of command by going directly to the local commander - without his general staff even knowing about it. That’s a level of interference that’s never healthy, but also typical of a paranoid micro-manager who trusts nobody.
On the ground it does look as if the Russians planned a propaganda move, sending in literally two men to raise a flag on a ruined house to prove they’d recaptured it. The drone footage from the Ukrainians clearly shows them doing this and then running off.
The commander of the Russian forces responsible was given a promotion to general.
Then the Ukrainians released the footage of what really happened which ripped through Russian telegram channels raining a firestorm of mocking cynicism against the commander who organised it. In order not to look weak, he ordered an attack on Ukrainian defences at Krynky.
The Ukrainians know the Russian mindset and expected just such a move. It was repelled with ease using drones to take out vehicles and the assault group.
Expecting worse to come the Ukrainians probed deeper and found a concentration of Russian forces about 15km behind the lines. Most of them were outside waiting for a senior officer to inspect them on a visit.
He never bothered to turn up after two cluster munitions armed HIMARS hit the base killing the assembled soldiers and another hit 30 minutes later as more soldiers arrived to clear up the dead and wounded, finishing the site off completely.
Another attack using GLSDB’s fired from HIMARS also took out a Russian command post in the area. Another strike using GLSDB resulted in an entire drone reconnaissance operation and truck being taken out - Ukrainian operators followed a returning Orlan spy drone with their own drone, back to its operators and destroyed the truck and everyone responsible. Several drones were taken out with it.
What make this whole saga so extraordinary is that it stemmed from Shoigu lying to Putin’s face and Putin calling him out on it, which in turn caused the local commander to try and save his own reputation. The
whole thing essentially based on lies and deceit from the top down and the bottom up. This is the danger of authoritarian regimes, lies and inabilities and unwillingness to speak the truth for personal gain or self defence, literally result in the death of troops on the front and public humiliation. It’s pathetic, sad and shameful. It’s also very Russian.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

💥🔥 There was an explosion and a fire at the NLMK enterprise in Lipetsk, Russia.

Media reports, four drone attacks.

The attack on the Novolypetsk metallurgical plant was organized by the SBU and the State Government, - sources

According to sources, this is one of the largest metallurgical plants of the Russian Federation. He works for the military-industrial complex and fulfills a large number of government orders. Raw materials from this enterprise are used to manufacture Russian missiles, artillery, drones, etc.

After the powerful explosions at the Novoliptsk metallurgical plant, a large-scale fire began and the evacuation of all plant personnel. According to the Ukrainian special services, drones of the SBU and GUR targeted installations designed for primary cooling of raw coke gas. Damage to these objects, according to the sources, will lead to the stoppage of the entire production process of the metallurgical plant for a long time.

By the way, the owner of the affected plant is Vladimir Lisin, a Russian oligarch close to Putin. According to Forbes, he is one of the three richest people in the Russian Federation.

This is 330 km from the border with Ukraine

🇺🇦@ukraine_report🇺🇦🔱Liz

We are stronger than any geopolitics. The unity of people can do more than any dictator. And courage - common folk courage - turns over even such pages of history, which seemed to never end.

Dear friends! President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Prime Minister of Italy Giorgio Maloni, Prime Minister of Belgium Alexandre De Croo, Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau! I am thankful for every package of support that helps our soldiers fight and our country grow stronger. I thank you for every sanction decision against Russia. And I thank you for every step that brings this war closer to a just end.

Putin must lose - in absolutely everything, as here in Gostomel. This is the only way to win peace.

Zelensky Official

Fact-check: Is the Turkish Navy blocking Russian ships from crossing the Bosphorus Strait?

Turkey closed the Bosphorus to Russia,
Ankara blocked access to Russian warships after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Kyiv asked the Turkish government to close the Bosphorus Strait to Moscow and, after some hesitation, Ankara banned Russian warships from transiting through these waters.

However, the warships were still allowed to return to their home bases in the Black Sea.

But some reports have accused Russia of transporting hidden war equipment in cargo ships, which are still allowed to transit through these waters.

A report published by NATO in October 2023 claimed Russia is operating a ghost ship to swerve these restrictions.

The Montreux Convention of 1936
Finally, closing the strait off to Russia does not violate the 1936 Montreux Convention.

The treaty covers the various straits that connect the Mediterranean Sea with the Black Sea and has been ratified by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations. The treaty has remained unchanged since it has been ratified.

Here’s how the treaty works: Turkey guarantees freedom of passage for all civilian and commercial vessels during peacetime.

Military ships can also pass through, under certain conditions, and only if advance warning is given.

According to Article 19, when there’s a war that doesn’t involve Turkey, warships from the warring states can’t use the straits — unless they’re returning to home bases in the Black Sea.

Turkey has the discretion to close the strait to warships of all nations party to a conflict. It may also do so if it fears an “imminent danger of war.”

" Imo, the russian black sea fleet is stuck in this area and can be slowly picked off by Ukrainian long range weapons."

🇺🇦@ukraine_report🇺🇦🔱Liz

A prisoner was tortured to death in the colony where Alexei Navalny was killed

In 2022, employees of IK-3 in Kharp tried to pass off the death of Bakhrombek Sharifov, who died from torture, as suicide, Kholod found out .

They put Sharifov in a straitjacket, twisted him into a mattress and wrapped him with tape. When the man suffocated, the staff burned the instruments of torture and said that he had hanged himself. An autopsy refuted this, and five employees were charged.

The publication also found two cases where relatives of prisoners killed in IK-3 were not informed of the circumstances and cause of death. The mother of one of the prisoners was given 24 hours to get to Kharp and pick up the body. She didn’t have time, then the prisoner was buried without a last name - under a number.

The mother of Alexei Navalny said that they showed her the body, but they want to bury the politician secretly. If she refuses, the investigator threatens her with connecting “ media resources to tell things that no one wants to know .” The FBK director named the conditions for the release of Alexei's body set to Navalny's mother. The Investigative Committee insisted on storing the body in the Moscow or Vladimir region, as they were afraid “ that the morgue would be stormed .”

The UK was the first to sanction those in charge of the Arctic penal colony where Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny was detained and killed will be banned from the UK and see their assets frozen.

The US will impose a fresh slate of sanctions on more than 500 targets on Friday in response to the death of opposition figure Alexey Navalny and on the eve of Russia’s two-year war in Ukraine, according to a Treasury official.

@freerussia_report

NATO confirms - forget about Putins "red lines"

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview that Ukraine has the right to use its Western-supplied weapons to defend itself against Russia, even if that includes striking targets within Russia's borders.

"Under international law, Ukraine has the right to self-defense. And this also includes attacks against legitimate military targets, Russian military targets outside Ukraine," Stoltenberg said in an interview with Radio Liberty

Lest there be any doubt about the meaning of stepping over this red line, a Nato official confirmed to the Financial Times that Stoltenberg said Kyiv had the right to self-defence, including by striking legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine.

Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukraine cannot use Western-supplied weaponry to attack in Russia, as it "could risk escalating the conflict." These warnings have led to some delays in arms deliveries, as is the case with the United States. But other NATO allies have not hesitated to continue supplying armaments to Ukraine.

Why did it come up again? The looming F-16s delivery most likely

After the recent downing of a Ilyushin II-76 in Belgorod, Rusia claimed that it was done with an Patriot air defense system, and therefore Ukraine would be using Western supplied weapon system to strike outside of the country.

But Stoltenberg's comments represent a step up in rhetoric, as he has previously referred to Ukraine’s rights under international law without explicitly mentioning attacks on Russian territory.

In recent months Ukraine has stepped up strikes on military targets inside Russia with drones and long-range missiles, including an oil depot used by the Russian army near St Petersburg.

The debate over using western weapons to strike Russia is likely to intensify as some Nato allies begin to ship F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, as they could significantly increase the potential range of Kyiv’s strikes into Russian territory, if armed with long-range missiles.

In online searches for news there are already popping up obviously ruZZian induced warnings that can be easily spotted by the wording in their articles and head-lines about 'NATO is giving Kyiv the green light to attack Russia' or 'NATO is risking to escalate the conflict'.
Thereby ignoring completely who is escalating the conflict since 2014 and especially in the last two years.

@freerussia_report

10 infamous atrocities https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28500

How Ukraine crippled Russias Black Sea fleet

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28412

World leaders arrive for two year anniversary of the war.

https://kyivindependent.com/world-leaders-arrive-in-kyiv-to-mark-2-year-anniversary-of-russian-invasion/

The Security Service fired up a Russian steel plant.

https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraines-security-services-allegedly-behind-attack-on-major-russian-steel-plant/

They finally released the body.

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-prison-releases-navalnys-body/

Russian losses

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/22073

Mykhailo Putyatin from Kharkiv was four years old. His life was taken by the Russian army.

On February 9, 2024, the enemy attacked the city with drones. As a result of hitting the oil tank, there was a fuel leak and a fire quickly broke out. The fire engulfed residential buildings and, in particular, the apartment where Mykhailo lived with his mother, father and two brothers caught fire. They all died.

The boys loved to play, always laughed and were friendly. They wanted to live at home, like all of us...,
- said a close friend of the Putyatin family.

Mykhailik is survived by two grandmothers, an aunt, an uncle and other relatives.

European capitals seek $1.5bn in fallback plan to arm Ukraine - FT

European capitals are racing to raise $1.5bn in emergency funding to provide Ukraine with artillery shells from overseas to shore up the front lines against Russia as the full-scale war enters its third year.

The last-ditch scheme to buy ammunition from outside the EU is being spearheaded by the Czech Republic to compensate for the congressional deadlock on US aid and delays in European production.
Prague has taken the initiative as capitals squabble over extending the EU’s main military support facility for Kyiv.

Officials familiar with the discussions say the country needs its European partners to help provide the $1.5bn to finance the ammunition purchases, which Prague has been organising since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

“The Czechs have done the work, but they need others to provide money,” said a person briefed on the initiative.

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told EU counterparts on Monday that Ukraine needed 2.5mn artillery shells this year but that the bloc had only sent 400,000. He pleaded with them to find a solution fast.

“The Ukrainians couldn’t care less where these shells come from, and who pays for them,” said one EU diplomat. “We’re arguing over acronyms while they suffer on the front line.”

Ukrainian forces are already having to drastically ration artillery fire, making it harder for them to repel Russian assaults. Russian forces seized the eastern town of Avdiivka last week in their first significant territorial gain since May.

Deliveries from US artillery stocks are suspended because a $60bn support package for Ukraine is stuck in the US House of Representatives, putting the onus on Europe to make up the shortfall.

The EU set a target of sending 1mn shells to Ukraine by March this year from stockpiles, production and foreign purchases

Czech President Petr Pavel, a former general and senior Nato official, surprised delegates at the Munich Security Conference last weekend when he said Prague had identified an unnamed country outside the EU with “half a million rounds of 155mm and another 300,000 rounds of 122mm calibre which we can deliver within weeks if we can find quickly funding for that”.

Some EU members have already chipped in, say officials familiar with the Czech scheme.

The Czech government declined several requests for comment.

Prague needs financial contributions from national governments because EU capitals are at loggerheads over a proposed €5bn top-up of the European Peace Facility, the main EU vehicle for funding weapons supplies to Kyiv.

EU ambassadors failed to reach agreement on the EPF at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday and have set a target of agreeing the rules of a fresh capital injection before a summit of EU leaders on March 21.

Germany is insisting that its notional contribution of roughly €1.25bn be reduced to reflect its large bilateral military aid to Ukraine, worth €7bn this year.

“What is crucial for Ukraine is that military aid reaches it without bureaucratic delay. Bilateral support is very quick and efficient — it should be considered as an equivalent contribution to the European Peace Facility,” said Michael Clauss, Germany’s ambassador to the EU.

France and Greece insist that an expanded EPF should only buy weapons and ammunition from EU and Norwegian manufacturers — which would prevent it financing the Czech plan or ammunition from the US.

The French government maintains that EU funds should be used to strengthen the bloc’s defence industrial base. Greece is concerned that contracts could be signed with Turkish defence companies.

“Of course we should be buying more to help Ukraine including from outside the EU,” said French military analyst François Heisbourg. “But politically it is going to become very difficult to buy artillery shells from the US when the US Congress is refusing to send further military aid.”

Europe has been slow to ramp up its artillery production because national governments and EU and Nato entities were slow to sign contracts with manufacturers, making it harder for companies to access finance to expand their facilities.

There has also been a shortage of propellant, which takes several months to make, and of its precursor chemicals.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said EU annual production capacity will rise to 1.4mn shells by the end of 2024, outstripping the US, which is expected to hit 1.2mn next year.

In a paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analysts, Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman concluded that Ukraine would need 75,000-90,000 artillery shells a month “to sustain the war defensively, and more than double that — 200,000-250,000 — for a major offensive”.

They added: “At this stage, the western coalition depends mostly on US stocks to sustain the lower range of this figure and does not have the ammunition to support a major offensive next year.”

Russia is able to make 2.5mn shells a year, according to the Royal United Services Institute think-tank.

Ukrainian officials say the figure is 4mn including refurbished munitions. But that rate is far below Russia’s own frontline needs. Its forces are estimated to have fired 12mn artillery shells in 2022 and 7mn in 2023.

Viktor Gordienko died on September 13, 2023 in the Kherson region, saving two brothers. He was 34 years old.

Victor was from Mykolaiv. He was a mechanic repairing cars.

With the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the man fought in the ranks of the Teroboron. He was a senior combat medic.

He received several awards during his service.

Viktor put his soul into everything he did. He always finished what he started.

"He was an indomitable and strong spirit, a sincere, frank and straightforward person. As a beloved husband, he was the best: loving, caring, protected from all troubles in life..." - said his wife Lyubov.

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIA STARTS MULTI-PRONGED OFFENSIVE ON NORTHERN FRONT

For several months the Russians have been rumoured and then observed to be building up forces in the northern front area - from the border to just north of Bakhmut.
That offensive has started. Its aim seems to be to regain the territory they lost in September 2022 during their near rout.
Almost everywhere along this sector of the front there are attacks, probing to find weak points, knowing the Ukrainians are short of manpower and ammunition. They know that sooner or later they will find a weak point and then they’ll exploit it.
The Russian troops involved are not especially well equipped or trained. However right now you could say that about the Ukrainians too. New equipment is hard to come by and the forces in the north are not the battle hardened core that’s been fighting in the south and Avdivka over the past year.
The Russians smell blood. They are convinced there is weakness and they know Ukraine is almost out of cluster munitions and standard artillery rounds. Because they don’t care about their losses, they have no compunction about attacking even if its costs in an excessive loss of men. They only care about the result.
The ultimate aim seems to be to reach the Oskil River - long imagined as the ‘new border’ for the occupied territories by Russia.
The Russians have attempted to do this in a piecemeal way before, often with significant losses and little success, and any small hamlet they took rarely provided any advantage and came at losses well into the thousands, let alone the machinery.
By making the entire sector a problem for Ukraine the Russians think they are stretching defensive resources. If they make this sector the centre of operations then it’s possible another sector will go undefended, and that too pressed hard if they can find it.
There are said to be as many as 40,000 Russians on this front available for slaughter but as of yet they’ve achieved nothing substantial.
Yet it also has to be pointed out they haven’t tried too hard yet either.
The ground has solidified. There is far less mud than there was, the winds have dried it out and the temperatures are between 0-8C during the day, which for Russians and Ukrainians is generally mild for the time of year. Operationally the conditions are good.
So as this offensive starts to roll out, we will have to see how flexible both sides are in delivering attacks and parrying the blows.
Ukrainians face having to rely yet again on the ‘elite’ battle hardened units that race to the rescue when things go wrong - the 47th is notorious for being such a unit. But they can’t keep up this pace of putting out fires.
Ukraine’s parliament is dragging its feet on mobilisation laws because it’s not a popular subject - nobody wants to go and fight if they don’t have to. The trouble is they do have to or they have to be prepared to face the consequences- and they don’t want those either.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

Donnie got so far out there, Fox News cut him off and did error correction.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-goes-so-far-off-the-rails-during-speech-that-fox-news-cuts-him-off-and-corrects-him/54693/

Donald seems to think windmills cause inflation.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/senile-donald-trump-thinks-windmills-can-fly-or-something/54708/