TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

More than 150 Russian soldiers died in a month after strikes on four training grounds. But the commanders continue to organize formations to meet the top brass.

February 21. Three strikes at once on the training ground in the Aleshkinsky Sands national park in the Kherson region.
February 20. Strike on a formation in Trudovskoye (Donetsk region).

January 24. Arrival at the training ground near Ilovaisk.
February 14. Strike at the training ground near Dokuchaevsk (Money & Rounds).

The MoD did not admit any strikes or losses.

Military analyst Yan Matveev:

“Drones identify concentrations of personnel; maybe intelligence also receives data from local residents. And they keep
HIMARS ready - information is transmitted quickly, without the traditional Soviet army bureaucracy.”

“The formation of men to “convey” an order or to meet the commander is a traditional ritual; army commanders, accustomed to it, simply do not know how to do otherwise. But still no one is punished for losses.”

@freerussia_report

Anniversary of the Assassination of Boris Nemtsov.

Nine years ago, on February, 27 the Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down in the streets of Moscow, just blocks from the Kremlin.

Since Nemtsov’s murder, Russia has become an increasingly belligerent neighbour and ever more repressive of its own citizens. Today, anyone who criticizes Putin inside Russia risks their liberty and their life. According to data of OVD-Info there are currently over 1.000 Russians incarcerated as a result of politically motivated prosecutions.

Nemtsov died just hours after appealing to his compatriots to support a march against Russia's war in Ukraine. Last year, Putin changed Russia’s criminal code, making it a criminal offence for any citizen to criticize Russia’s army or its war efforts. It has since prosecuted hundreds of ordinary citizens under this new draconian legislation.

A brave opposition figure, Nemtsov championed the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign and advocated for Magnitsky legislation worldwide, including in Canada. His commitment to holding human rights violators accountable and his support of targeted sanctions reflected his steadfast belief that Russians deserve justice and democracy. It's no wonder Putin wanted him dead.

A joint investigation of Bellingcat, The Insider and the BBC in 2022 showed that Boris Nemtsov was shadowed for almost a year before he was murdered by an agent with name Valery Sukharev linked to a political assassination team, a secret FSB hit squad who also tried to poison Navalny and Kara-Murza.

Last week, Russia lost another formidable voice, opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose murder in a remote artic penal colony casts a dark shadow over the struggle for a free and just Russia.

Human Right activists are more concerned than ever for the safety and well-being of Russia’s other prominent political prisoners, including Alexei Gorinov and Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was Boris Nemtsov’s friend and mentee. Both political prisoners have underlying health conditions, and many believe them to be in mortal danger.

Boris Nemtsov was a fierce adversary of Putin. He dreamt of a free, just and democratic Russia.

Nemtsov was awarded in 2006 the Order of Yaroslav the Wise, in Ukraine

He is the only Russian to have been awarded the highest non-military order attainable in Ukraine, the Order of Liberty (posthumously).

@freerussia_report

Wartime laws.
Six constitutional rights that have been nullified in Russia in two years.

During the two years of war in Ukraine, the authorities adopted dozens of repressive laws that abolished the rights and freedoms of citizens guaranteed by the Constitution. Accordingly six basic standards have been reset:

1️⃣ Freedom of speech (Article 29).
In March 2022, liability was introduced for “discrediting” the army, military “fakes” and calls for sanctions. In July a law was passed on the extrajudicial closure of media outlets. The Investigative Committee opened 273 cases of “fake news” and 81 cases of “discrediting the army.”

2️⃣ Prohibition of discrimination (Article 19).
In the fall of 2022, the ban on “gay propaganda” was tightened, and in 2023, the Supreme Court declared LGBT people an extremist organization. According to Meduza estimates , up to 15 million LGBT people live in the Russian Federation: an entire segment of the population is deprived of their rights.

3️⃣ Inviolability of private property (Article 35). Since February, a law on the confiscation of property of those accused under “political” charges has come into force; security forces have the right to seize apartments immediately after charges are filed. During the seizure of the property of those who left, about 20 large enterprises were nationalized.

4️⃣ Freedom of movement (Art. 27).
In the spring of 2023, the State Duma legalized the forced relocation of people from the occupied territories. In the summer, she introduced a ban on the departure of conscripts and those called up for mobilization.

5️⃣ Right to freedom of creativity (Article 44).
Military censorship penetrated music, cinema, theater and literature. Opinion leaders are included in lists of extremists and terrorists, declared foreign agents and their books and performances are banned. The authorities admitted that by September 2023, 170 artists had left the country.

6️⃣ Right to life (Article 20)
Extrajudicial executions became commonplace at the front, Putin openly approved executions “for patriotic reasons,” Prigozhin and Navalny were killed without trial. The murder of Kuzminov in Spain, who was shot several times and then run over by a car, was admitted on state TV.

According to lawyer Ivan Pavlov, Article 29 suffered the most: “The most important goal for the regime during the war is to achieve control over the dissemination of information so that it does not reach the Russian audience from the free environment.”
@freerussia_report

"I would not recommend civilians to use the so-called Crimean bridge," the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kirill Budanov released a video message and warned of "surprises" for Russians on the occupied peninsula.

"The fact that he does not discuss these actions in the silence of meetings behind closed doors, but tries to advertise his activities, means only one thing: he does not believe that this terrorist activity will be condemned by his immediate leadership Volodymyr Zelensky or by the Western partners, but rather, he will receive bonuses commented one newspaper.

In November, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Vasyl Malyuk, also threatened to blow up the Crimean bridge. This advice we believe has come to light as a further development of the "Long Neptune" missile, thought to have range of several hundred kilometres. By all estimates they will cover Crimea and be able to reach deep into Russian territory.
@freerussia_report

Despite the sanctions, Russia imported almost €450 million worth of military equipment directly from the EU in the first 9 months of last year

Bloomberg writes about this with reference to its own sources.

Although trade data shows that the EU's direct trade with Russia has fallen since the start of the full-scale invasion, exports to Turkey, the UAE, Serbia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia have increased sharply, which may indicate that Russia is trying to fill this trade gap.

Journalists report that these countries are helping Russia to circumvent sanctions and purchase tens of millions of euros worth of goods for various purposes.

At the same time, the European Union has been trying to tighten restrictions on countries that re-export goods to Russia in recent months, including imposing sanctions on local companies.

@liveukraine_media

No wonder I am so warm. 80⁰ right now. Hard to believe it will be 27⁰ by midnight as the cold front comes blowing in at 40 mph.

2nd su-34

https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-2nd-russian-su-34-aircraft-in-single-day/

One of two

https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-russian-su-34-aircraft/

Russia uses Red Cross as a propaganda tool. Not one Red Cross visit to Ukrainian POWs

https://kyivindependent.com/media-investigation-kremlin-uses-russian-red-cross-as-propaganda-tool/

Resisting occupation of Crimea
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/22276

They got one of the guys shooting soldiers who were surrendering.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/22329

Alla Sweetka died in the village of Velikiy Burluk, in the Kupyan district of the Kharkiv region. On February 14, 2024, the Russian army fired at the settlement with S-300 missiles.

Alla Sweetka was 27 years old. Graduated from Kharkiv National Agrarian University. She loved to sing. She dreamed of creating a family.

When in September 2022 the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Velikiy Burluk from occupation, Alla headed the local cultural center. Even after an enemy rocket hit this building on January 8, 2024, she did not give up.

It is possible to destroy just the premises, but it is impossible to destroy our DNA in culture,
Alla wrote then.

She was supposed to be a future artist of Ukraine... Everyone loved her. She survived the occupation and continued to stay at home, worked for victory,
- added friend Lidia Bukhanko.

Sending Western troops on the ground to Ukraine should not “be excluded” in the future - French President Macron

“There is no consensus today to send ground troops in an official, assumed and endorsed manner. But in dynamics, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything necessary to ensure that Russia cannot win this war ,” explained the French president.

After an international conference in support of Ukraine, bringing together 21 heads of state held this Monday in Paris, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed Paris's commitment to Ukraine. “The defeat of Russia is essential for security and stability in Europe ,” he declared at a press conference.

The head of state also announced that Ukraine's allies would create a coalition to deliver medium and long-range missiles to Ukraine.

It was decided to “create a coalition for deep strikes and therefore medium and long range missiles and bombs ,” he declared.

Several European countries support the Czech initiative for the EU to buy munitions outside Europe to further support Ukraine's war effort, participants at a meeting on Ukraine said Monday in Paris.

“The Czech initiative enjoys great support from several countries ,” declared Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala at the end of this meeting which brought together more than 25 countries allied with Kyiv at the Élysée presidential palace.

“This is a very strong message sent to Russia ,” declared the leader, assuring that fifteen countries were ready to join this initiative which aims to respond to the shortage of ammunition, in particular artillery shells, for Ukraine.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte affirmed that his country would contribute “more than 100 million euros” to the Czech plan and that “other countries would follow” this path.

“On ammunition, there is this very good Czech initiative which consists of purchasing ammunition and shells throughout the world for Ukraine ,” explained Mr. Rutte.

A "very irritated" German Chancellor Scholz explains why he continues to oppose Taurus deliveries to Ukraine - even after the Bundestag voted in favor of a recommendation to provide Ukraine with "long-range weapons".

Scholz said in Berlin that he does not want a situation to arise in which German expertise is used directly for the aquisition of Russian targets.

"We must not be linked to the targets that this system reaches at any point and in any place," said Scholz.

Scholz is concerned that if Germans were involved in target aquisition, rather than simply weapons supply, then this would make Germany a party to the war.

Counter-arguments have been made that Germany can train Ukrainians, who have demonstrated their technical aptitude on numerous occasions, how to operate the system independently, which would limit Germany's role to remain as a supplier of weapons and training, rather than a direct participant in the war.

Scholz has previously expressed concerns about the system being used by Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, which could "escalate" the conflict.

A number of counter-arguments have been made to this position. Ukraine has on many occasions shown how reliable they are to stick to agreements made with partners in the west to only use weapons within Ukrainian borders. A strike using Taurus in Crimea would be completely within the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine - a fully legitimate strike on its own
territory.

Further, the war launched by Russia is already an all-out war, where Putin has already stated that he is in an existential war against the West, that the true enemy of his country is the West rather than Ukraine itself.

Former NATO commander, retired General Wesley Clark, made the point in a recent interview by DW, that western countries needs to recognise the "inconvenient fact" that Russia believes it is at war against the West.

Scholz said that he was "very irritated" by "the lack of balance between what is really needed now and the debate about this one system".

It is certainly true that artillery ammunition is urgently needed by Ukraine, but not only. Retired General Wesley Clark explained that Ukraine "certainly need long range weapons" and that "they need not only the Taurus missile, but also other ballistic missiles".

President Zelensky made the following statement on Sunday: "Taurus missiles are very important to us. But the order of action is as follows: first the United States, then Germany".

What could be interpreted from this statement, is that Zelensky believes that if the US provides longer range (300 km) ATACMS or other long range missiles, then Germany would be willing to supply Taurus.

In other words, Scholz could be waiting for the US to provide the leadership and risk coverage of providing longer range missiles, rather than Berlin taking the leadership.

This conclusion could also be read into an answer provided today by a representative of the press service of the German government, who said: "German Chancellor Scholz will make a statement about the possible transfer of TAURUS missiles to Ukraine at the 'appropriate time'".

The "appropriate time" for Scholz appears to be "awaiting US leadership", something which is currently lacking, with support for Ukraine blocked in the US Congress.

This is not the time for Europe to appear weak. Leadership and concrete actions are needed!

❗️ Powerful explosions in Kherson. Kherson is under heavy artillery fire.

❗️A guided air missile, probably Kh-59, in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk region!

❗️ Launches of guided air bombs by tactical aircraft in Donetsk region.

👀Some monitoring channels report that one Russian UAV allegedly crossed the border with Moldova.

❗️ Explosions in Kryvyi Rih!

❗️Drone from Kharkiv region to Poltava region.

❗️A rocket changed the direction towards Kirovohrad region!

❗️There is a shahed in the direction of Kremenchuk from the Kirovohrad region!

(all above in the last 20 minutes)

"We are seeing the return of industrial warfare to Europe" - Professor Michael Clarke

"We didn't think we would see it after 1945, but it is back with us again now. The war is won by the side who can gear up its industry to fight a long campaign in what is a war of attrition.", he stated.

"The EU has delivered economic support, keeping the [Ukrainian] government running. The US has delivered the military support. The US can't deliver more ammunition without agreement in congress."

"Ukraine is the crucible for the ability of the western democracies to push back against the tide of autocracy which seems to be taking over the world"

"If the western word is seen to be a paper tiger, to not be able to deliver on its commitment, the rest of the world will take due notice of that and begin to lean towards Putin and Xi Jinping in China and other dictators on the assumption that the world is now moving in their direction."

The CIA helped create a network of secret spy bases on the territory of Ukraine and a Ukrainian intelligence network in countries where Russian intelligence services are active.

According to The New York Times, American intelligence has maintained a secret partnership with Ukrainian intelligence services for 10 years, exchanging intercepted information with Ukrainian colleagues.

With the support of the CIA and MI-6, the SBU created the paramilitary Fifth Directorate to conduct operations behind Russian lines. It was staffed by employees born after the collapse of the USSR and with no ties to Russia, the newspaper notes.

In 2014, the CIA delivered secure communications equipment to Ukraine for the first time and trained members of the Fifth Directorate and two other elite Ukrainian intelligence units.

The CIA also oversaw a training program for Ukrainian intelligence officers, which took place in two European cities. Among other things, Ukrainians were taught to work undercover. This is how a new generation of Ukrainian intelligence officers appeared who worked in Russia, throughout Europe, in Cuba, and other places of Russian presence.

With the help of the American department, Ukrainian intelligence has created 12 forward operating bases along the Russian border, the newspaper writes. From these centers, Ukrainian officers managed a network of agents who collected intelligence inside the Russian Federation. The bases were equipped with equipment for collecting intelligence information. After the start of a full-scale war, two more secret bases were built to intercept Russian communications. They are almost entirely financed and partially equipped by the CIA.

"As a result of the full-scale invasion of Russia, the state expenditures of Ukraine have more than doubled," stated the head of the Budget Committee, Roksolana Pidlasa.

"In order to understand how the government of Ukraine functions during the war, it is necessary to know that as a result of the full-scale invasion, government expenditures have actually doubled, increased by 2.5 times, compared to pre-war indicators and, according to experts' forecasts, will increase to more than 52 billion US dollars in 2024. Ukraine's budget deficit is unprecedented — 41 billion US dollars," Pidlasa said during a special YES meeting "Two years — the struggle continues."

She emphasized that the risk of not covering the funding is obvious and involves a reduction in both military and non-military spending.

"Fortunately, there is light at the end of the tunnel, at least for this year: the IMF and the country's leadership reached a staff-level agreement on the third review of the program. Currently, Ukraine expects to pay $800 million by the end of March.
We are almost certain that the EU will finally approve the program for Ukraine (€50 billion) at the end of February and we hope that the US Congress will soon vote on the future of Ukraine.
In addition, it is important to note that Japan and Canada provided enormous assistance in covering the remaining deficit of public finances," Pidlasa added.

Russia will go to war with Nato if troops are deployed to Ukraine - Kremlin

The Kremlin has warned that a conflict between Russia and Nato would be inevitable if European members of the alliance send troops to fight in Ukraine.

French president Emmanuel Macron opened the door on Monday to European nations sending troops to Ukraine, although he cautioned that there was no consensus at this stage as allies agreed to ramp up efforts to deliver more munitions to Kyiv.

“Nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we must so that Russia does not win,” Mr Macron said.

Asked about Mr Macron’s remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that if it came to pass, talks would have to change to the inevitability of a Nato-Russia conflict.

“In that case, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability (of a direct conflict),” Mr Peskov said.

Discussion by Western democracies of direct military intervention in Ukraine’s war against Russia is good and shows awareness of the risk to Europe from Russian aggression, a senior Ukrainian presidential official told Reuters.

“This shows, firstly, an absolute awareness of the risks posed to Europe by a militaristic, aggressive Russia,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, said there are no plans for Nato combat troops on the ground in Ukraine. 

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

The value of the Russian rouble is falling sharply again, despite an ever decreasing number of trading partners refusing to use it.
Putin’s policy to get it back to under 100 to $1 meant that capital controls forced a false revaluation. Any exporter was forced to repatriate 80% of any money they were paid in foreign currency. They then had to change 90% of those repatriated funds into roubles within 14 days - artificially creating a demand for the roubles and propping its value up.
Add to that, an increase in interest rates to 15% and it held the value.
Yet suddenly in the last few weeks the value is sliding again, and is clearly heading back to the 100:1 value.
It’s not just the USD either, it’s falling against the Euro - now at 101:1. Just to make things worse the Chinese Yuan has gone from 8 roubles to 1 to 13:1 in the past few days.
All of this means Russian imports are costing the country more and more money.
In the space of 2 years the Indian rupee has gone from 1 to 0.65 roubles to the point there is now 1 rupee to 1.13 roubles - another huge fall in value for Russia.
Inflation rates officially in Russia have it rising further to 7.4% - and nobody believes for a second it’s that low in the real world. Food inflation is said to be in 30% band.
The Russians interest rate is now 16% - only economic basket case Argentina and inflation riddled Turkey have higher rates inside the G20 states.
On top of this the Russian Federation is refusing to publish the economic data for January - it’s likely so bad they don’t want it publicly available.
So why is the rouble diving again?
Principal likelihood is Russian companies refusing to repatriate cash by bartering instead. That reduces demand and value.
Almost without a doubt there’s something distorting the Russian economy way beyond its tolerances. Things tend to spin out the tighter controls become. Military spending skyrockets, oil sales failing, gas sales through the floor, economic stagnation when it comes to the internal consumer market, all stand out. Add to that damage to
key industries by Ukraine - oil and gas terminals, heavy industrial sites and damage, all cost money and resources to fix that Russia doesn’t have, and also reduce income for Russia from abroad and taxation.
Increasingly the Russian economy is straining at every turn. The cracks are opening up and the pressures are many.
Only ending the war can really stop this inevitable demise.