TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

From "The Analyst":

AVDIVKA FIGHTING RETREAT COSTS RUSSIA DEARLY

Ukraine continues to hold two villages so that Russian forces are not given the opportunity to gain any momentum, as defending forces withdraw to their prepared defence lines on the river behind them. Much of the ground is open terrain.
The incredible operation to take down the A50-U AWACS plane - which may have used some kind of modified S200 long range anti-air missile used in the earlier days of the Cold War for bomber defence, has had a dramatic consequence.
Ukrainian intelligence said that five aircraft already en-route on bombing missions were instantly recalled. This confirms the AWACS was being used for target acquisition and threat assessment against the aircraft, as well as confirming the operational detection range of the AWACS, along with the sophistication level of its radar.
The Russians have been using groups of infantry, usually about ten strong, to push into the area as Ukraine withdraws. Ukraine has been using snipers to take them out with considerable success. This led to the Russians starting to use armour to support the infantry.
During the attacks on Avdivka the Russians used long range mine rockets to try and block the Ukrainians from withdrawing - however these were used after they’d already left.
The Russians failed to communicate and their armour started running into their own mines, taking out almost a dozen vehicles.
Ukraine continues to withdraw to its defence line, but this is unlikely to be where Russia will push harder. The real threat is from Bakhmut all the way to Kupiansk- multiple axis of attack are under way as Russia pushes hard to find a weak spot.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

Russia will impose a six-month ban on gasoline exports starting March

According to Reuters, the ruzzians say that "demand for fuel will grow because of summer vacation travel, spring fieldwork on farms and planned repairs at oil refineries".

They did not mention high use of gasoline by the armed forces, and more to the point, the recent Ukrainian UAV attacks against refineries - hardly "planned" repairs..

- Is the petrol station running out of petrol?

⚠️ Warning from the Ukrainian Defence Intelligence

📄 Statement of the Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine, — the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

❗️ Dear Ukrainians and our international partners!

▪️ Two years after russia unleashed a full-scale war of aggression, Ukraine is facing an objective threat to its existence as a state, as a nation, as a community of free and equal people.

▪️ In the context of deliberate distraction of the world's attention from the ongoing and bloody russian-Ukrainian war, the leadership of the aggressor country has resorted to a plan of planned sabotage, information operations and outright provocations.

▪️ The main directions and goals of the enemy are to disrupt Ukrainian mobilisation, spread disinformation about Ukraine's inability to win, create and spread fakes about "fatigue from Ukraine" among our partners and allies in the world. The russians' global international goal is to reduce support for our country from the pro-Ukrainian coalition in the world.

❗️ The goal of the russians inside Ukraine is to demoralise Ukrainians, sow panic among the population, drive a wedge between the military and civilians, and put everyone at odds with everyone, including representatives of the country's political leadership and civil society.
russian special services have extensive experience in conducting hybrid wars. They spend no less on information attacks against Ukraine than on conventional warfare.

👉 As reported by the Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine, in November last year, as part of the Maidan 3 special operation, russia spent almost $250 million on spreading anti-Ukrainian sentiment on the Telegram platform alone. The total budget of the operation was an astronomical $1.5 billion. This is the most expensive "action" of russian special services in history.

❗️ Special operation "Maidan-3" will reach its culmination in March-May 2024, and in the coming weeks, the enemy will make every effort to spread narratives destructive to global security and attempt to incite conflicts — both inside Ukraine and in other parts of the world where there is effective support for Ukraine.

✔️ The methodology of the campaign is traditional for russian special services: to question the legitimacy of government decisions made in Ukraine after 20 May, to spread panic and disbelief, to artificially oppose civilians and the military, to quarrel us with our allies, and to spread all sorts of "conspiracy theories" in society. This is happening against the backdrop of russia's public statements about the creation of new types of superweapons, which, according to the russians, should ensure russia's technical superiority over the West for the next decade. It follows that opposition to russia's goals in Ukraine is dangerous for the world, and therefore russia will push other countries to engage in direct dialogue on Ukraine without our participation.

⚔️ Also, the russians, through their own agents of influence in Ukraine and around the world, will rely on organising various protest actions and deliberately discredit the prisoner of war exchange process.

▪️ According to the enemy's plan, in the first half of June, the situation in our country will be shaken and then, taking advantage of the situation, Ukraine will be defeated militarily in the East, which is the key idea of their operation.

‼️ In view of the above circumstances, we call on Ukrainian society, our international
partners and allies to strengthen joint resistance and comprehensive security measures, especially in the information space, to effectively counter global threats and challenges of the new global hybrid war. The war waged by the russian federation and its criminal allies against the entire civilised world today.

🤝 Our society needs unity.

🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine downs another

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28704

Sweden predicts quick response on shipping Gripen fighters to Ukraine.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28718

U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with Congressional leadership, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, at the White House on Feb. 27 to discuss a funding bill for Ukraine’s security needs

President Biden and members of Congress "will discuss the urgency of passing the bipartisan national security supplemental [aid for Ukraine] and keeping the government open.”

Johnson's office confirmed to Bloomberg that he will be attending the meeting with President Biden. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also be attending the meeting.

“This is one of those instances where one person can bend the course of history. Speaker Johnson, if he put this bill on the floor, would produce a strong, bipartisan majority vote in favor of the aid to Ukraine,” Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said on Sunday.

Sullivan stressed that Ukrainians need weapons and ammunition to fend off Russian forces, and that in his personal conversations with the speaker, he “has indicated that he would like to get the funding for Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN that Avdiivka would not have been lost if Ukraine “had received all the artillery ammunition that we needed to defend it.”

Zelensky appealed to the Republican-led House to unblock the latest US aid package after Ukraine marked the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked invasion amid increasing signs the war is tilting Moscow’s way as Ukrainian soldiers run out of bullets.

He told CNN in an interview in Kyiv on Sunday that Republicans such as Trump ally Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance – who have been speaking out against more Ukraine aid – do not comprehend the stakes of the conflict.

“To understand it is to come to the front line to see what’s going on, to speak with the people, then to go to civilians to understand … what will (happen to) them without this support. And he will understand that millions … will be killed. It’s a fact,” Zelensky said.

From "The Analyst":

KYSLIVKA DEFENCE IS CRUCIAL

The Russians have tried for months to battle their way towards the vital town of Kupiansk at the top of the northern front. It’s heavily defended by minefields, difficult terrain and Ukrainian forces. Every effort to retake it has failed.
So with the Russians starting this early spring offensive along the whole North and Eastern fronts, their principle target is Kupiansk. It’s a crucial logistical hub for attackers into Ukraine. Kharkiv to its northwest, is safe as long as as Kupiansk stands.
Having failed to take it the usual way, Russia launched an attack on Kyslivka, much further south, that would allow it to push across more open but still difficult terrain and allow an attack on Kupiansk from the southeast direction.
Ukraine has already recognised this threat and moved reinforcements into the area, but its importance was such that Russia reinforced it further with three assault brigades.
The initial Russian attacks have gone badly, drones and ATGM’s with artillery that Ukraine uses only when it must due to shell shortages, have kept the Russians from advancing and making any real progress for now.
However as always, they’re preparing to bring an overwhelming level of attack to the area to see if they can overwhelm the defenders. Ukraine will not make it easy for them.
This process is part of a major Russian strategy to force a series of pincer moves into Ukraine’s territory so that they can keep slicing off more and more and forcing
withdrawals.
It’s going to be difficult but not impossible to defend from.
What Ukraine needs is ever more support and American aid. Russia is using this opportunity to do what it can in case the situation quickly changes.
There are tough days ahead. I believe Ukraine can withstand them.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

"4 Ukrainian National Guardsmen stop an assault column near Robotyne" - DeepState

👤 On 19 February, four soldiers from the Maori Battalion of the 3rd Brigade of the Spartan National Guard took an unequal battle against 3 armoured infantry units. This convoy was moving to Robotyne to reinforce a bunch of f***ers who were holed up in the village.

🔥 The Katsaps, consisting of three APCs-82, moved towards the western outskirts of the village, and a battle broke out. The first
APC exploded on a TM62 mine, the second was hit by an RPG. The third managed to land infantry, who engaged in a small arms battle with our defenders. Thanks to the courage shown, as well as support in the form of mortars, drops and artillery, the enemy was stopped and eliminated.

🏥 Soldiers of the Maori Battalion received numerous injuries and are currently undergoing treatment, waiting to return to duty.

Putin needs victories. That's why Russia claimed a nonexistent victory in Krynky.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/22268

Goodnight Resisters everywhere

They are scared to death that the Trump legal bills will drain the coffers.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/rnc-hits-the-panic-button-over-donald-trumps-legal-bills/54727/

‼️ Budanov: "Russia failed the most expensive IPSO in its history"

❌ Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that the Russian Federation planned, but failed to implement, against Ukraine, the most expensive information and psychological operation in its history.

📌 This was announced by Kyrylo Budanov on the sidelines of the forum "Ukraine. Year 2024", which took place on February 25 in Kyiv.

"They didn't find anything better than calling this operation Maidan-3 - it was officially called that in their documents. This is the most expensive operation for them and it has already practically failed.

👉 As part of this operation, they planned the following: to create a situation in which the legitimacy of decision-making in Ukraine after May 20 of this year would be questioned. They were counting on a certain confusion in Ukrainian society in connection with this, which would be projected onto our army. After that, having sown double thoughts in our army, in the first half of June they planned to inflict a military defeat in the east, taking advantage of the previously shaken situation in the army. But they will not be able to inflict a military defeat, and this special operation of theirs has already failed," noted Kyrylo Budanov.

✔️ Responding to journalists' questions about the causes of the death of Russian opposition leader Oleksii Navalny, Kyrylo Budanov noted that Navalny really died as a result of a blood clot breaking off.

"Unfortunately, it's true, he died of a blood clot breaking off. But it should be remembered that the Russian regime deliberately brought him to such a state of health, using various means."
- GUR
@ukrainejournal

Ukraine will win anyway: Ben Hodges on the delay of US aid and prospects at the front

Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, is convinced that Russia has become much weaker than it seems at first glance, and that Ukraine will win a full-scale war despite the delay in US aid. "They [Russia] control only 18% of the Ukrainian territory. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has problems, Russian planes do not enter Ukrainian airspace, half a million Russian soldiers are killed or wounded", Ben Hodges said.

General thinks that this is a year of industrial competition, "Ukraine has to set up a personnel system, recruit new people, provide ammunition and weapons from the West. And if we are ahead of Russia, I think we will be in a different place next year. So this year, I think General Syrskyi has to stabilize the front. Russia cannot knock out Ukraine. And Ukraine cannot knock out Russia either. It’s like two great wrestlers. And both are tired. But one says to the other: You are more tired than I am. And the fight continues".

"I think even if the US does nothing for the next 2-3 months, Europe produces a lot of weapons. But there will be more even by the end of this year. This famous one million shells will be produced. We obviously started too late. But it is what it is," Ben Hodges said.
https://fakty-com-ua.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fakty.com.ua/en/svit/20240221-ukrayina-vse-odno-peremozhe-ben-godzhes-pro-zatrymku-dopomogy-vid-ssha-i-perspektyvy-na-fronti/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=%D0%98%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%3A%20%251%24s&aoh=17088580894930&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffakty.com.ua%2Fen%2Fsvit%2F20240221-ukrayina-vse-odno-peremozhe-ben-godzhes-pro-zatrymku-dopomogy-vid-ssha-i-perspektyvy-na-fronti%2F
@ukrainejournal

Emmanuel Macron is bringing together the German Chancellor, the Polish President and around fifteen heads of state and government today in Paris to reaffirm their support for Ukraine - Le Figaro

The victory or defeat of Ukraine “depends on you,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told his allies yesterday. He will address the meeting organized at the Élysée presidential palace by videoconference.

At a time when American support, crucial for Kyiv, is still blocked in the US Congress, and when the possibility of Donald Trump's return to the White House is giving the EU cold sweats, Emmanuel Macron calls on Europe to do a “collective burst” against Russia.

The goal is to “remobilize and examine all means of supporting Ukraine effectively”,
indicates the Élysée, at a time when Kyiv, lacking arms and ammunition, finds itself in a very difficult situation facing Russia.

“It's about contradicting the impression that things are falling apart, reaffirming that we are not tired and that we are determined to stop Russian aggression. We want to send a clear message to Putin that he will not prevail in Ukraine ,” insists the French presidency. “We are neither resigned nor defeatist”, insists the Élysée, “there will be
no victory for Russia in Ukraine”.
@ukrainejournal

⚪ The Middle East conflict 101:

UN in 1947: “Here is a state for you, the Jews, and here is a state for you, the Arabs.”

The Jews: “Awesome. Thanks. We’ve only been waiting for this for thousands of years.”

The Arabs: “Sorry no. We’d rather attack than have a state. We don’t want a state. We want no Israel.”

The Jews: “Sorry you attacked and lost.”

The Arabs: “Don’t worry. We’ll be back.”

The Jews: “Here. Take land. Make a state. We just want peace.”

The Arabs: “No. No state. No Israel.”

The Jews in 1967 (Khartoum summit): “Here. Take land. Make a state. We just want peace.”

The Arabs: “No. No state. No Israel.”

The Jews in 1991 (Madrid Conference): “Here. Take land. Make a state. We just want peace.”

The Arabs: “No. No state. No Israel.”

The Jews in 2000 (Camp David Summit): “Here. Take land. Make a state. We just want peace.”

The Arabs: “No. No state. No Israel.”

The Jews in 2001 (Taba Sunmit), 2005 (Disengagement), 2007 (Annapolis conference), 2008 (realignment plan), 2010, 2013 (Joint peace talks), 2019 (Bahrain workshop), 2020 (Trump peace plan): “Here. Take land. Make a state. We just want peace.”

The Arabs: “No. No state. No Israel.”

The world in 2024: “Let’s give them a state.”

The Arabs: “No. No state. No Israel.”

The Jews: “Ok, no state for you.”

The world? “Those Jews!”

And then there are the wars that the Arabs attacked the Jews and lost: 1948 (war of independence), 1967 (six day war), 1973 (Yom Kippur war), 1982 (Lebanon war), 1987 (first intifada), 2000 (second intifada), 2006 (second Lebanon war), 2008 (operation cast lead), 2012 (operation pillar of defense), 2014 (operation protective edge), 2021 (operation guardian of the walls), 2023 (operation swords of iron).

The fact that there is a single human being on planet earth who still doesn’t get the following fact is insane and mind boggling.

The Jews want peace. The Arabs who call themselves Palestinians do not. They never have. They never will.

Want proof?

The PLO: The Palestinian liberation organization was established on May 28th, 1964. There were no settlements then. There was no occupation. What exactly were they looking to liberate? The answer is Israel, every last inch of it.

There was Arab terror against Jews well before there was any occupation. There was Arab terror against Jews before there was even a state of Israel.

1929, for example. Arabs massacred Jews in Hebron. Why? It was 1929. Israel was established in 1948.

How exactly does that work? Were they massacring Jews to resist the future occupation?

Anyone who thinks that offering the
Palestinians a state will solve anything is a fool. Period. Full stop.

It’s time the world learned Arabic. The Palestinians want dead Jews. They say it, they vote for it, they act towards it, and then they live stream it.

And yes, I said Palestinian, not Hamas.
The Palestinian people elected Hamas. Thousands of them participated in October 7th in one way or another. Close to 90% of the Palestinians support Hamas.

The Palestinian people exist from day one for the sole purpose of destroying Israel. It’s their entire identity.

They keep trying and keep failing.

They don’t seem to learn their lesson and neither does the international community.

Israel wants peace. Israel is willing to make compromises for peace. Israel also knows well how to handle its enemies when necessary. It has a lot of experience.

If you are still reading, and disagree with anything I wrote above, kindly tell me what is inaccurate about what I said and if you can’t, if you agree with the facts I listed here, tell me please how, in 2024, after October 7th, anyone still thinks the Palestinians want or deserve a state.

Congratulations on completing your course on the Middle East. You are now officially more knowledgeable about Israel and the conflict than 99% of Gen Z and pro Palestinian activities who take to the streets every day chanting for the murder of Jews.

Thank you for coming today.

Any questions?

@HilzFuld

🇮🇱 @israel_report

“FROM THE ANALYST “ POLITICALLY DRIVEN OFFENSIVE IS COSTING RUSSIA DEARLY

It’s extraordinary that there seems to be a deeply politically motivated offensive being carried out at Putin’s behest. The point of it seems to be to garner support for Putin’s reelection, by providing victories to get votes. It’s almost as if he thinks Russians won’t vote for him. As if that mattered. Is he really so deluded he believes these elections are even vaguely free? It smacks of deep insecurity that even in a rigged election he’s afraid that people really won’t give him their support - that it will actually fall below a real majority that they polish to look better. Does he fear genuine lack of votes? Is he that fragile? It seems he must be.
Meanwhile Russia has launched an offensive like no other it’s ever attempted.
The focus in the past few day has been Chasiv Yar as the primary objective.
In aiming for this the Russians have been able to take a key village to its east, but the cost has been horrific.
Ukraine’s drone operators have made the area a killing zone for BMP’s, BTR’s, Tanks and support vehicles, never mind inflicting huge infantry casualties.
Yet the more that gets destroyed, the more the Russians divert into the objective - they aim to get what they want no matter the cost.
That’s all very well to a point. If your objectives are limited and you have the budget in vehicles and manpower to achieve it, but you can’t just pour resources into hot spots like this forever.
And that’s what the Ukrainian forces rely on. Extracting the highest possible price for the smallest possible gain is the way they wear this offensive down. They know the Russians can’t keep it up for ever, so it’s a mix of careful retreats and defensive operations that only happen at the last minute and cost the Russians an exorbitant amount of resources. Eventually they will have to slow down.
The Russians tend to use the battering ram approach. They bring in the TOS-1 thermobaric launchers, they smother the ground with heavy artillery fire, anything to make it impossible for a human to stay in a defensive position. Then they move in when they think there’s no opposition left. It’s at that point they become vulnerable. You can’t send in your own men while still launching area denial weapons like thermobaric rockets.
And that’s how the situation sits up and down the northern front.
It’s deeply challenging for the defenders and bloody as hell for the enemy.
In other good news it seems there’s been confirmation of the loss of another A-50U AWACS over the Rostov direction. This is seriously bad news for the Russians - they just don’t have enough of these to loose another. Wandering Uncle Patriot seems to have been busy again!

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
@ukrainejournal

Ted Cruz is a Republican, doing what Republicans do.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/ted-cruz-reaches-new-low-by-proposing-legislation-aimed-squarely-at-helping-himself/54723/

Putin feared Navalny. Navalny in the West, able to speak freely, was his worst nightmare.

https://kyivindependent.com/navalnys-associate-opposition-leader-killed-to-prevent-swap-with-convicted-russian-hitman/