TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN DEFEAT AND MUTINY
Advancing toward Semynivka from the Avdivka direction, Russian forces have been trying to cross the river in front of the Ukrainian defence lines.
Ukraine has just completed a full rotation of its forces here, with fresh and rested troops in place.
The Ukrainian side has good roads and logistical support and the small town is the centre of this, hence its value to both sides.
Ukraine has the advantage however in position and supply.
The Russians massed for their attack in newly captured Orlivka. Ukraine concentrated its drones and artillery on these units as they assembled. The Russians also have to use just a handful of available river crossing points so again, Ukraine knows where they will try. The Ukrainian forces also used their 3rd Assault brigade to mount counter attacks, taking the Russians entirely by surprise as they hadn’t expected such a move.
The Russians however later replaced their losses with surprising ease, seemingly using the old Avdivka coking plant as a base to hide equipment.
Using 120mm mortars to soften Ukrainian positions, the Russians then attacked with infantry delivered by APC. The Russians appear to have crossed into Semynivka but faced intense counter attacks.
The Russians used familiar tactics. Racing over open ground in APC’s and tanks under fire to drop off infantry and withdraw, but heavy losses of vehicles were the main result, although soldiers did reach the crossing. The Russians tried to flank the Ukrainian positions using tanks but quickly lost them.
Ukraine launched dozens of drones to engage the infantry and artillery to destroy additional vehicles transporting more infantry.
All the time this was going on the Ukrainian artillery was pounding Russian support forces and additional reinforcements in Orlivka before they could advance.
Russian survivors were seriously upset at about the way they’d been sent to the slaughter. 15 of them said they were the only survivors of their 150 man company and posted a video saying they were accused of mutiny for refusing to continue to fight.
Overall the attack was against heavily defended positions and the Ukrainian side seems to have used absorption tactics - allowing a certain amount to cross into their fire zones and kill points.
The Russians try to fill up these spaces with more forces only to find they’re just being slaughtered and have no chance of advancing.
An intense and effective defence by Ukrainian forces!
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
🇺🇦 Okay, that was an interesting day. The big news is that German Chancellor Scholz has found 6 Patriots as well as 1 he has for Ukraine. This is most welcome news as the US missiles Ukraine need are also in Germany (in a US military base) waiting for the bill to pass Congress and Senate. Here, we had 147 Videos, 62 Pictures (+News) for you today! I’ll be back at 4pm & Evening time LIVE IST with 2 batches of 50+ New Videos (+News). 🇺🇦
🔱 Goodnight 😴 Rory 🔱
CNN: Israeli officials had promised to US officials beforehand that they will not strike civilian targets or nuclear facilities.
Iran reported now that its air defense is/was active.
Teheran Airport airspace is shut down
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Russia's brutal and unprovoked attack on Ukraine is the greatest geopolitical crisis and challenge since WWII. Challenges of such a level are solved by facing them, standing tall and making the right decisions in the long-term perspective.
The United States are the guarantor of democracy and freedom in the world today.
The way to make America truly great again is to support Ukraine and ensure our victory - just like America supported the Allies in WWII and that changed the geopolitical scene forever.
To stop aid to Ukraine and pretend that's the solution is the way towards WWIII.
This would be a sign of the US weakness and vulnerability. This is exactly how Russia, China, Iran and other countries will see it.
Is this the way a leader wants to go down in history? And what kind of history will the Earth have then?
❗️Friends from the United States,
The next days before the vote for aid are going to be crucial.
Please contact those who will vote and ask them to do the right thing. It is right geopolitically, morally, long-term and short-term.
Please share this as widely as possible.
Help keep our amazing Defenders alive and their families safe.
Thank you. Slava Ukraini!
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Why is it so important to pass Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (financial assistance to Ukraine) and what will likely happen when it is supported by a majority of lawmakers from both parties and promptly signed into law by U.S. President Biden.
◾️ This means that arms and ammunition, which Ukraine has been in short supply of, may already be sent to Ukraine in the coming weeks (deliveries will be made, among other things, from US bases and depots in Europe).
◾️ Add to this the fact that Europe (whose economic potential is 10 times higher than Russia's) has also become active in matters of military aid for Ukraine, financing Ukraine through various "arms coalitions" and on a bilateral basis.
So, by the beginning of the probable Russian summer offensive, the situation may be as follows:
◾️ Ukraine has partially managed to build defense structures comparable to the Russian "Surovikin Line."
◾️ Ukraine has adopted a new version of the law on mobilization, which will increase the number of soldiers in the Ukrainian Army.
◾️ The first batches of ammunition will soon be delivered to Ukraine as part of the Czech initiative to buy 1 million shells for Ukraine.
◾️ The U.S. aid bill for Ukraine includes the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles (which was not included in previous versions of the "aid package"). The precedent of transferring even a small number of such missiles will "move the issue of supplying similar weapons by European countries (particularly Germany) off the ground".
◾️ Ukraine will receive F-16s in the summer of 2024, for which crews have already been trained. This will significantly reduce Russia's advantage in the air, in particular, the possibility of using KABs on the front line.
◾️ There will be an increase in the number of modern air defense systems that will protect Ukrainian infrastructure and military-logistic chains. In addition to the prompt delivery of Patriot batteries from Germany, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's initiative to purchase similar systems from third countries is promising.
◾️ Ukraine was able to establish its own production of missiles and long-range drones, including Neptun missiles, which previously existed only in single copies. In this context, curious events may already take place in Crimea in the coming months.
In any case, the ability of Ukrainians to "work in the rear" has grown by leaps and bounds, and this is noticeable even in regions far removed from Russian combat zones.
It would be wise to remember that the capture of small Avdiivka cost the Russian Armed Forces tens of thousands of dead Russian occupiers. It is simply impossible to imagine the cost of capturing Kharkiv or forcing the Dnipro river - it would mean hundreds of thousands of dead Russians.
🔹 Conclusions:
1. The West does not demonstrate "fatigue" from Ukraine. Despite various inconsistencies and difficulties, the scale of military assistance is increasing.
2. The Kremlin is under the illusion of its ability to control the development of the conflict. This situation is reminiscent of the first months of war. Putin, having started the war, did not calculate the possible consequences. Now he has no way to stop. He has dragged Russia into a war from which he did not foresee a way out.
3. Many military analysts claim that the Russian Armed Forces have already "squeezed the maximum" out of the situation when Ukraine experienced interruptions in supplies of equipment and ammunition. At the same time, its successes are tactical, while the losses of manpower and equipment are huge.
4. Even a hypothetical success of a future Russian offensive will not lead to the end of the war and the surrender of Ukraine.
5. No offensive is possible without mass mobilization. Another 1-2 million Russians would need to be mobilized. In addition, numerous losses will have to be compensated by new waves of mobilization.
6. Intoxicated by the "election victory," Putin ignores the risks: attempts to seize another hundred square kilometers of Ukraine will provoke increased internal instability in Russia itself.
7. Judging by the mood of Russians, support for the war is falling. According to the Russian Field poll, 70% of Russians favor the start of peace talks: 49% favor unconditional peace and another 21% would support Putin if he "signs a peace agreement." "Hawks" make up 19% of the total mass. At the same time, only 6% are "irreconcilable", demanding to wage war until "complete victory" and the capture of Kyiv, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris.
ISRAEL STRIKES BACK
There’s no ignoring it. Ballistic missiles have impacted Isfahan, largely regarded as the centre of nuclear weapons development in Iran. Explosions are also being reported in areas occupied by Iranian proxies.
Iran says nothing much has happened and they’re clearly playing down the attack, hoping I suspect, that it can be kept as quiet as possible inside Iran so that there’s no outcry for yet further escalation.
The attack appears to be continuing as I type but I suspect it won’t take long.
Nobody knows how many ballistic missiles Israel actually has.
Hopefully this will be the end of the cycle of tit for tat attacks. If Iran responds to this directly it’s going to start getting ugly.
❗️Israel launched a missile attack on Iran. Local media reported that the attack was aimed at targets in Isfahan. Explosions are heard near the airport. According to unconfirmed reports, nuclear facilities may also be located in this region.
At the same time, Israel struck the territory of Syria and Iraq. An ABC News source, citing American officials, confirmed the attack.
The video is supposedly a flight of Israeli missiles over Iran, filmed by IRGC fighters.
Checking for more information…
DJT and Jesse Waters need to both be stuffed in a cell for a few days
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-needs-to-be-jailed-now/55587/
Russian spy attempted to undermine democracy
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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