TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
Rest in Peace
Tetyana Kornienko's life was taken by a Russian missile attack on Kyiv.
On July 8, 2024, she came to work for a few hours to sign documents. At that time, the Russian army shelled the building where the office where Tatiana worked was located.
Tatyana was 41 years old. She grew up in the city of Smila in Cherkasy Oblast. She held the position of lawyer and attorney in the office of Maximus Airlines.
She devoted her free time to her son and husband, also worried about her parents, and loved spending time with friends. She was interested in embroidery, handmade, healthy lifestyle.
"She was a caring mother, a beloved and devoted wife. She returned from abroad to support her husband, who is serving in the military. She gave all of herself to her family. There was order and coziness where Tatyana was. Cheerful, cheerful, she loved Ukraine incredibly," said Olena Kolyada's sister.
Tatyana is survived by her parents, husband, son and sister.
Continues…
But we have to be aware this is a high stakes game and we must not overplay the capabilities of the F-16 to change anything. Expect little and hope for more.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
CONTINUES
The launch is detected by the American early warning system in space, the flash message is directed instantly to the Ukrainian command through long practiced and improved protocols but time is the problem. Even as the message is being relayed the refuelling rig is only half way through its job. The pilot has to go, now, max burn up the runway, the rig crew know they can only run - the F-16 blasts it’s afterburner as the rig crew scatter - the F-16 roars into the air as the ground behind it explodes and the rig evaporates in a mix of kerosene and high explosive fragmentation warhead. The pilot hears his fighter hull peppered by tiny fragments. He prays they hit nothing vital. At barely 200ft he keeps low and slow aiming to get back to base.
It could all have been far worse - and in reality it probably would have been.
F-16’s cannot forward operate while the Russian Orlan-10 spy drone problem continues. Already an issue that has caused multiple Ukrainian air frame losses and been responsible for many deep ranges attacks on crucial live targets (rail junctions and transshipment points especially) in recent weeks. They’re a plague that’s not easy to eradicate or solve. If they’re not removed from the environment then there’s no real way to forward operate any of these aircraft anymore.
The concept of the F-16 solving the glide bomb issue is erroneous. It cannot get that close to the front and survive Russian air to air or ground to air defences.
Operating at low altitude from distant rear bases is difficult because it lacks range - the lower you fly the more fuel you burn. Maybe some strike opportunities will be available to it given planning and preparation.
So what can the F-16 do? It can try and hunt cruise missiles - if it can see them because the radar in these variants isn’t suited to that kind of low observable target.
But it’s biggest drawback is that it needs frontal operating fuel support if its to have any impact high or low. Its bases will be located and the Russians will hammer them. That requires more air defence that’s not being used for critical infrastructure. And if those Orlan spy drones with their ability to call in Iskander ballistic missile strikes at such speed remain the pain they already are, their forward operating bases are under constant surveillance and threat.
The Ukrainians will figure out a way to use them and the early warning aircraft Sweden is supplying will help, but it’s going to be a deeply challenging environment - made worse by the high propaganda and political value they represent as a target.
These variants of F-16 are not geared up for the frontline in Ukraine and they’re not ideal in air to air engagements against modern Russian aircraft - missile ranges and capabilities are far beyond the point these F-16’s were designed to deal with - which is why their countries ditched them for the F-35 after all. They’re out of date. So how Ukraine finds a way to maximise their impact will be interesting to see.
Air warfare analysts have a pretty dim view of their chances. Even more of a dim view about their basing - because the more of them Ukraine has the easier they will be to find and destroy.
And we should not and cannot underestimate the importance of these Russian spy drones operating in the rear. They have become a major problem nobody wants to talk about. You can’t see them and there’s almost nothing to stop them even if you could. It was these that called in the strike that blew up trains carrying M2’s to the front, have taken out many long range artillery units and the aircraft listed above. They’re immensely effective. Unchallenged they will only become a bigger problem as the Russians can see how effective they are in real time.
The F-16 faces a deeply complicated environment and its far from being the best aircraft to cope with it. Bearing all of that in mind, never underestimate the enthusiasm and inventiveness of Ukrainians. They will surprise us I am sure. CONTINUES…
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
F-16: REALITY MAY PROVE DAUNTING
The arrival of F-16’s is imminent. Just a handful, not even a full squadron. They are possibly one of the most politically charged targets Ukraine has ever possessed. Only HIMARS and Patriot launchers have ever been so high value to the Russians - but F-16 takes that title and runs with it. Losses are inevitable but they will be very public and very loud. That we must be prepared for.
Yet the F-16 variants being supplied to Ukraine are we have to remember, far from top of the line. Their capabilities are compelling but compromised by their radars. They are also relatively short ranged when operating in a country that is the size of Ukraine.
Their safety suggests they will have to operate from the rear most and easily defended bases, but operational range depends on altitude. Low altitude operations burn fuel at a high rate, high altitude takes time to reach and burns fuel but being up there is more effective and more economic. The trouble with being up high is Russian anti air systems and radars can see them and Russian fighters with newer radars and very long range air to air missiles will be hunting them.
Take a scenario where an F-16 takes off from the far west and climb to 35,000ft as economically as possible - by which time it’s half way over Ukraine. The mission is to deter or destroy glide bomb running Su-34’s some 70km behind the front line. To maximise the bomb range height is essential.
By the time the F-16 radar can even see the Su-34, the F-16 is only 10-30km behind the frontline. To get the most out of its AMRAAM it needs to be fired at around Mach 1.3. The AMRAAM burns for around 7 seconds taking it to around Mach 4 before the rocket motor stops. It’s kinetic energy plus the low air resistance increases its range and it locks on to the Su-34 - depending on the Su-34 and experience of its pilot it’s about a 50-50 chance of being hit or escaping depending on whether or not it’s dropped its bomb.
Meanwhile the F-16 is in full range of an S-400 ground based system and the missile is incoming. The F-16 needs to turn and run as fast as possible, likely having to dive down to low altitude in the opposite direction to the incoming missile at very high speed.
Give it the benefit of the doubt and say it avoids the missile. Its fuel is now chronically low and it can’t get back to its operating base.
It must quickly land at a forward operating refuelling point and there are only three of these set up so far. The closest is just within range. It’s an old and not well maintained base the Russians have hit many times before 120km behind the front.
It will be rough, the runway has not been well maintained because the Russians would see it and know something was up.
As the F-16 comes into land the refuelling rig and the attendant crew race to readiness, breaking cover from their well camouflaged but flimsy shelter.
The F-16 bumps along the runway to the pilots alarm but stops where it needs to. The refuelling rig and crew are on him fast. He admires the way they get on with it. He needs enough just to fly back to his main operating base to disarm, then he’ll fly to Poland for maintenance.
High overhead, where it’s been for two hours, having been launched hours before, part of an ongoing and highly successful program of strategic reconnaissance, with several major kills to its name (including several Su-27, a Mig-29 and and M270 MLRS) an Orlan-10 long range loitering spy drone sees what’s happening. It’s been waiting just for this type of operation. The operator admires the fact the Ukrainians had hidden themselves so effectively but he can see the F-16 taxi as the refuelling rig breaks cover. He waits until they stop and issues the coordinates to the Iskander-M team. Within 30 seconds launch is ordered, less than 2 minutes and the missile is on its way from the standby system kept alert for just this kind of rapid response.
Flight time is under three minutes at this range. CONT..
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
VOVCHANSK: RUSSIAN FORCES COLLAPSE IN CENTRE
Finally some good news from VOVCHANSK.
The Russians had advanced into the southern part of the town over the river in a strategic move they thought would result in the eventual withdrawal of the Ukrainians from the northern sector. However they were close to being cut off and controlled just one very narrow street and a bridge connecting them to their main forces.
They had not been able to escape from it since, and rather than fight them day in day out at high loss, the Ukrainians waited for them to die off or be eliminated from attrition.
With high temperatures for over three weeks - often in the mid 30-38c range, conditions were very poor. There was little in the way of food and water getting in.
With constant Ukrainian drone surveillance and the southern bridgehead completely surrounded, its doom seemed inevitable. Medical care was zero, corpses were rotting in the heat and supplies dwindling. Disease and untreated wounds quickly turned against the Russian occupiers.
Eventually the Ukrainians attacked the southern salient and eradicated the vast majority of it, resistance now minimal. It is unlikely the Russians can defend the last vestiges of the salient south of the river.
With this failure the Russian strategy for taking the town falls apart, opening the way for a larger Ukrainian operation to cut in east and west of the town and potentially cut it off completely.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
The Polevaya oil depot in the Kursk region of russia was attacked tonight - the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed the attack
The Polevaya oil depot consists of 11 tanks with a total volume of 7,000 cubic meters and is used, in particular, to meet the needs of the Russian armed forces.
The task was carried out by the forces and means of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU A) in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces.
In addition, there is information about powerful explosions in the area of an electrical substation in the Kursk region.
Detailed information about the consequences of hitting both objects is being clarified.
🤫 There will be a continuation - the GUR commented on the defeat of the fighters of the "Wagner" PMK in Mali.
Andrii Yusov noted that the rebels received important information that helped them defeat the Wagner fighters.
Yusov did not specify where the information came from.
"This is sensitive information, everything that Ukraine does takes place within the limits of international law and taking into account the necessary procedures."
Yusov recalled the words of the head of the State Security Service, Kyrylo Budanov, that Russian war criminals will not escape punishment, wherever they are. "And now we are watching it live," he added.
In the photo: Fighters who defeated the Wagner column in Mali display a Ukrainian flag. It can be noted that one of the fighters is armed with an AK-74, which is not typical for this area. It has also been commented that two fighters are dressed in clothing that is also not typical for the region.
The russians are speculating that Ukraine has been involved in training the rebels or participated in actions. These speculations have not been confirmed by Ukrainian officials.
⚡️The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that its air defenses shot down 39 drones overnight: 19 over Kursk, 9 over Belgorod, 3 over Voronezh, 5 over Bryansk, and 3 over Leningrad regions.
It is claimed that the targets of the strikes were allegedly energy infrastructure.
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Russia attacked its own POW camp to kill the POWs. They hated Azov because Azov held them at bay for so long.
I was wondering why I found this this morning instead of yesterday. Then I saw the time. Arrived at 10:06PM.
Good morning Resisters everywhere. It's a fine morning here. Cool and blue sky.
Just wanted to advise everyone I will be here in the morning for the next 3 days, but not the afternoon. 3 days of heat advisories. Possibly as high as 110⁰ heat index.
You only need to vote once. Donnie will fix it. No elections ever again
By the way, I am suspicious the billionaires are cooking up an October surprise. They will throw their money into screwing up the economy. Donny will say, "Only I can fix it!"
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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