TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

Might be a good idea to watch CNN tonight. Find out who number 5 is.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/here-comes-trump-employee-5/54964/

People getting excited because he once praised Hitler while residing in the White House. Hell, when he was a private citizen, before becoming president, he kept a copy of Mein Kampf on his bedside table.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/to-the-surprise-of-no-one-donald-trump-reportedly-praised-adolf-hitler-in-the-white-house/54960/

Trump's criminal trial starts in 2 weeks.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-resorts-to-desperate-measures-with-his-new-york-criminal-trial-set-to-get-underway/54959/

Peter Navarro is off to jail in a couple of weeks

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/down-goes-peter-navarro-2/54958/

Continues:

This has had a terminal effect on the value of the Rouble. Nobody in Russia borrows money at 20% when they can borrow it in Yuan at 6%. The rouble is barely trading anywhere - nobody wants it except ordinary Russians - and only because they’re made to use it.
Russia cannot compete with the EU/ NATO even excluding America. It’s in dire economic trouble, bouncing along the bottom of the proverbial barrel to do what it’s doing.
2024 will see Ukraine on the defensive and it will lose territory. But come 2025 Russia will have passed the point it can win, as the weight of long dormant Euro-NATO economies start to produce more and more faster and faster, feeding Ukraine what it needs to permanently and conclusively turn the tide.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

From "The Analyst":

NATO, STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY, TURNING THE TIDE

The NATO alliance in Europe has started to wake up to the threat of a post-Ukraine defeat and what would mean if it was allowed to happen.
President Macron, speaking at a rapidly organised Ukraine support summit in Paris, made the statement that France had no more ‘red lines’ in respect of Russia and that if necessary it would deploy troops to stop Ukraine loosing. Russia reacted with the usual nuclear threats.
Several of the other NATO members rushed to disagree - the Germans nearly wet their pants at the mere thought of it, while Poland raced to support the idea. Britain took its time to think about it and said it was probably best not to do that but you, know things can change.
There are two reasons France has to take the lead.
Firstly it is the only nuclear weapons state on the mainland and in the EU. It’s the only one with tactical as well as strategic nuclear capabilities.
The UK has pretty much only a strategic deterrent, and it’s something of a last resort.
Secondly it has probably the most effective army, navy and air force in the EU and on the continent. Germany’s army is so dysfunctional as to be a waste of space at present.
Poland is rapidly joining France in terms of capabilities and there is great strength in Finland and Sweden combined. The British Army is not what it was, but is small and capable. The RAF is far too small and would struggle to defend British air space let alone involve itself in deeper conflict. The Royal Navy would also struggle to defend from a Russian submarine offensive.
Those things aside these pronouncements are based on taking action in a world where Trump is reelected and the US disengages from Europe. Putin and his predecessors have dreamed of this since 1945.
Macron’s aim is, with other members of NATO and the EU, to create such ambiguity that it clouds the Kremlin’s ability to determine what constitutes the point NATO (or the EU/ or individual members) might - and I stress MIGHT - actually do something. It puts on the table an option and a possibility that’s never been there before.
It was always understood that France would use tactical nuclear weapons on the Soviets if they crossed the River Rhine. That was their last line.
That line may now have moved a long way East.
That we don’t know where is entirely the point. That some say they might intervene, some they probably won’t and some they certainly would if provoked enough, is about as strategically unambiguous as you can get.
The EU and the European/Canadian parts of the NATO alliance are a significant military power when acting together, even without America. France sees itself as the leader of that potential scenario. Germany can’t be even if it wanted to, and much as Britain would like to be, its stupid divorce from the EU has excluded it from contention and its position as leadership contender ended. It’s in danger of being the hanger-on.
As NATO (excluding the US) works more closely - especially as the EU ramps up ammunition production, European leadership is being strengthened.
Finally they get it. And this year, having crossed the gap with external purchases of ammunition, EU sources are now providing just enough to make good and by August will be meeting targets set last year. By late next year the EU ammo supply in key 155mm shells will reach 2.8 million per year -matching Russia and its allies. And the European economies are doing this without breaking a sweat. Much the same goes for every other aspect of military production. For the average man in the street this is having little or no effect on their lives.
You can’t say the same for Russia. It has had to break the economy and put it on a war footing just to keep where it is. It’s become so desperately dependent on China for loans - the Chinese Yuan loans made to Russian businesses have made it the second largest traded currency in the world for the first time ever - (the USD still accounts for 85% of global currency trades, the Yuan a little over 5%, the Euro a little under 5%).

The White House made a budget request for fiscal year 2025: $2 billion to counter the Russian Federation and support Ukraine

"The budget request includes $1.5 billion to counter the Kremlin's aggression. The $482 million earmarked for Ukraine, along with an additional request in the field of national security, will help Ukraine's economic recovery, strengthen its resilience and ability to defend itself against Russian aggression, and ensure the progress of reforms necessary for accession in the EU," the message says.
@ukrainejournal

Rest in Peace

Sofya Zayets was killed by airstrikes of the Russian army on the village of Chorne, Kupyan district, Kharkiv region, on February 15, 2024.
Aunt and uncle died nearby.

The girl was 17 years old. Studied in the first year of Kharkiv National Pedagogical University named after Hryhoriy Skovoroda, studied history.

She dreamed of becoming a psychologist and helping others. Relatives affectionately called her Sonya. She is the eldest daughter in a large family.

"She was a very serious girl, responsible, persistent, kind and fair. I grew up a real patriot," cousin Yulia said.

Sofia is survived by her mother, grandmother, sisters Anya and Vika, brother Nikita.

5 children have been released by Russia. (Out of 19,000 they hold) https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-returns-5-children-from-russian-captivity/

The judge who issued an arrest warrant for Putin is now the president of the icc court

https://kyivindependent.com/icc-judge-presidency/

Sniper downs drone with sniper rifle

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-sniper-downs-russian-drone-with-sniper-rifle/

A U-2 spotted over Poland

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/u-2-reconnaissance-aircraft-spotted-over-poland/

A Ukrainian drone took out a Russian Flamethrower system

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-drone-destroys-russian-tos-1a-solntsepyok-in-donetsk-region/

This is the video from 4 hours ago

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-air-force-strikes-russian-mechanik-pogodin-tanker/

Good morning from Ukraine Journal

https://t.me/ukrainejournal/8049

Daily Russian losses

https://t.me/ukrainejournal/8050

Soldiers of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade of the Zakarpattia eliminated one of the commanders of the enemy unit "Akhmat" near Robotyny

According to the media, one of the UAV pilots in the direction of Robotyny was ordered to follow the enemy buggy, in which the commander of the "Akhmat" battalion turned out to be.

The press officer of the 128th separate Transcarpathian mountain-assault brigade, Yaroslav Galas, clarified that one of the commanders of "Akhmat" was eliminated a few days ago near Robotyny in the occupied territory. Neither his name nor rank are known.

@ukrainejournal

🎥 Director of the film Mstislav Chernov:

This is the first "Oscar" in the history of Ukraine. It is an honor for me. But I'll probably be the first director on this stage to say I wish I'd never made this movie. If I could change it. So that Russia never attacks Ukraine, never occupies our cities. I would give everything so that Russia would not kill tens of thousands of my fellow Ukrainian citizens. I would like to see all the hostages released, all the soldiers defending their lands and all the civilians currently in their prisons. I can't change history. I can't change the past. But. All of us, all of us in this hall, the most talented people in the world, can make the truth prevail. And the people of Mariupol and those who gave their lives will never be forgotten. Because cinema creates memories. And memories form history. Thank you all. Thank you Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine!
*currently in their prisons released.

I hope this documentary will soon be shown again - in The Hague! ⚖️

@ukrainejournal

Documentary Film: 20 Days in Mariupol

An AP team of Ukrainian journalists trapped in the besieged city of Mariupol struggle to continue their work documenting atrocities of the Russian invasion.

As the only international reporters who remain in the city, they capture what later become defining images of the war: dying children, mass graves, the bombing of a maternity hospital, and more.

After nearly a decade covering international conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war, for The Associated Press, 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL is Mstyslav Chernov’s first feature film. The film draws on Chernov’s daily news dispatches and personal footage of his own country at war. It offers a vivid, harrowing account of civilians caught in the siege, as well as a window into what it’s like to report from a conflict zone, and the
impact of such journalism around the globe.

Note: Behind the film remains another crucial thing: the AP group recorded what was happening in Mariupol for the first 20 days. But it got worse later. It became scarier. The city was under siege for 86 days, and the Russian army turned it into a gigantic mass grave. The number of casualties in Mariupol is in the tens of thousands. But this is not in the film.

ℹ️ Germany has promised to provide Ukraine with about 8 billion euros for armaments this year, and in recent weeks Mr. Scholz has repeatedly convinced his European partners of the need for an equally significant increase in aid.

ℹ️ Germany became the second country after the USA in terms of the amount of military aid provided to Ukraine. She also urged France to step up its efforts in recent months and urged it to be transparent about the extent of its support.

💬 We are pleased to see that France is thinking about how it can help Ukraine more, but if I can give them one piece of advice, what is needed now is to deliver the ammunition and tanks that Ukraine needs as soon as possible , says the Federal Ministry of Economics of Germany .

ℹ️ In Paris, they say that their country has never let Ukraine down and has always delivered the equipment agreed with Volodymyr Zelensky on time.

ℹ️ Since the start of the war, France and Germany have clearly not agreed on everything, but there is still broad consensus on key issues, including the need for coordination to speed up munitions production or the EU's €50 billion in aid to Ukraine.

ℹ️ Everyone knows that there are huge differences in strategic vision between France and Germany. What changes with war is that differences that were previously theoretical can lead to different political choices. But we should not exaggerate
these differences.

ℹ️ But Scholz's announcement of the presence of cruise missiles and soldiers to service them stunned his close allies. Former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Scholz was "not the right person, not in the right position, not for the time."

In Factum
@ukrainejournal