TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

From "The Analyst":

BORDER ACTION

It certainly seems that the Russian offensive around the Kharkiv front, which has come in through four different points along the east-west section of the border (and the closest to Kharkiv itself) got off to a bad start.
This is a large operation. 50,000 troops are involved, 400 tanks, around 350 armoured vehicles and 900 artillery pieces. According to the Ukrainians they knew these forces were being assembled for months.
The Russians even built a new airstrip.
Some of this equipment has been taken from new production but much of it has been redeployed from other sectors of the front - which is why so many of the very active areas have become noticeable for the drop in activity, or an over reliance on infantry.
Now, according to the sources available, while things may have looked bad at the start the Ukrainians knew it was coming. Military intelligence predicted the date range, knew the approximate directions of attack. The attacks on the city infrastructure and defences- including HQ’s and SAM systems made it clear they were coming.
At least 35,000 Russian troops were allocated to the Kharkiv border with rest in other areas. The commander of the Russian forces is the same one who commanded the 2022 attacks and withdrawals.
The attack opened with strikes on bridges and dams to cut off supplies for Ukrainian reinforcements. Heavy shelling and glide bombs of target areas aimed to suppress Ukrainian fire. The small town of Ovchanske was destroyed overnight by the bombarding forces.
The Russians quickly advanced over the border claiming occupation of four settlements - Ukraine insists these are in a grey zone, in an area in front of their defences but inside the border.
Ovchanske is their first target town. About the size of Chasiv Yar it sits 5km south of the border so is well inside their immediate striking distance. Theoretically, it should not be so easy to take.
The problem with so many Russian forces being densely packed is they provide an easy targeting zone for the drone operators - in this case the defenders of the 42nd Motorised Brigade. These forces were deployed here specifically to face the Russian threat.
Experienced drone operators soon caused the invaders problems - with verified video showing groups of up to 4-5 APC’s quickly taken out as they crossed the border. This is where the video of Russians blowing themselves up occurred when they were injured and realised there was no likely evacuation coming. Clearly they’d been heavily indoctrinated before embarking on the operation.
Once again the Russians use the same old tactics (hardly suprising from the same previously defeated commander) - sending group after group along the same paths - right up to the spot the previous group was destroyed at. It makes the defending drone operators lives so much easier!
The Russians also quickly stopped over the border, parking up to deploy troops or wait for support, expecting no resistance. Ideal drone fodder.
The Russian intent is believed to be to try and create a 20km buffer zone to prevent further Ukrainian incursions and move their artillery further from the border, while giving the Russians something to do by making their pet hate - the city and people of Kharkiv, whom they regard (being a largely Russian ethnic population) as traitors, the target of their artillery bombardments. It also thins Ukrainian forces from their positions in other areas and absorbs reserves making them unavailable elsewhere.
Overall however, I remain convinced that repeated stupid Ukrainian incursions into Russia in these areas was the catalyst for this attack. The Russians were clearly not interested in spreading the war along a longer front but those attacks humiliated the Russian government and drew an inevitable response. It’s a lack of strategic foresight on Ukraine’s part that has come painfully home to them.
The view on the ground to individual soldiers must be infuriating for the Ukrainians. CONTINUES…

Rest in Peace

🕯 9:00 - minute of silence

Soldier Serhiy Nikitin, call sign Accountant, died on October 14, 2023 in Donetsk region. The soldier was 42 years old.

Serhiy from Vinnytsia. He worked as a construction worker. The last place of work was the construction of a private school in Kyiv.

In February 2023, the man voluntarily mobilized to the ranks of the defenders. He served in the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade of the Airborne Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Studied in Britain. Subsequently, he fought as a sniper.

"He was a very kind, sensitive and intelligent person. He had an exceptional sense of humor, knew how to cheer everyone up even in difficult moments of life. He could do everything in the world: cook borscht, bake bread, build a house, repair a rifle. He was a psychologist for those around him, and generally a wise person," said his wife Lilia.

His wife, three children, sister and brother were waiting for Serhiy at home.

🇷🇺 Activation of Muscovites in Kharkiv region - DeepState

🛑 Area around the village of Liptsi: the enemy has actually occupied the settlements of Morokhovets-Oliynykove-Zelene and continues to move towards the village of Liptsi. Active fighting continues for Lukianske, which the enemy has almost completely occupied. The Katsaps are trying to gain a foothold in Hlyboke, attempting to advance with infantry, but are under constant fire, in particular, from FPV drones of the Defence Forces, which makes movement much more difficult, but unfortunately, this does not stop them.

🛑 Vovchansk area: the enemy continues to approach Vovchansk, entrenching itself on the outskirts to further enter the city. Our fighters meet the Katsap with fire and make efforts to restrain the onslaught. The city is under heavy fire, and civilians are being evacuated. There have been numerous reports of the enemy occupying the village of Gatyshche, but the information is being verified. The fighting continues.

⚔️ Today, the Muscovites are focused on trying to gain a foothold on the existing lines for further advancement. The enemy regroups in some places and focuses more attention on shelling settlements, thus using the opportunity to bring in additional reserves.

🟡Today we have heard many different versions of the reasons for the border breakthrough and the development of events. But it is impossible to describe the whole situation in one post, because there are many questions and problems. We have paid attention to some of them, but we should be very careful in our conclusions, because it is necessary to verify the information for any analysis. This applies to both the fortifications and the overall development of events to date. The battle continues...

A Ukrainian refugee couple who fled to the UK have been refused permission for their two-year-old daughter to join them after the government suddenly changed its sponsorship rules, The Independent can reveal.

Oleksandra and Yaroslav were offered shelter from Russia’s war under the Homes for Ukraine scheme in April 2022, leaving newborn Anna with her grandparents in Kyiv until they were settled in the UK with work and their own home.

But after finally overcoming the hurdles of finding accommodation and setting up their own marketing business in the UK, the couple’s submission in April for their daughter, now a toddler, to join them was refused by the Home Office, after rules for the schemes allowing Ukrainians to do so were tightened overnight in February.

“Now it seems like it’s impossible to bring Anna,” Oleksandra told The Independent. “I was almost there – and I wasn’t expecting [the legislation] to change. I’m very sad and frustrated, I don’t know what to do and how to react. If I am not able to bring Anna, we will be forced to leave everything and go somewhere else.

“I spent a lot of time building up the business, finding proper accommodation, and when we came here we didn’t have anything – our business in Ukraine was closed and we didn’t have any money. So it’s not a good situation.”

Despite the Home Office insisting that the new rules do not prevent children from joining their parents, charities warn that the changes have created “unintended consequences” and could leave hundreds – if not thousands – of Ukrainians separated from their loved ones.

The “deeply shocking” failure “betrays our commitment to Ukrainians”, warned Labour peer Alf Dubs, who himself arrived in the UK as a six-year-old fleeing the Nazis.

“We pay lip service to how much we want to help Ukraine and the Ukrainians, then in practice we don’t do it,” Lord Dubs told The Independent. “The most fundamental thing is, parents should be allowed to have their children with them – absolutely fundamental – and I think the government should be ashamed of itself.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/homes-for-ukraine-scheme-refugees-sunak-changes-b2538499.html

All the Russian personnel changes

Putin removes Shoigu from the post of Minister of Defence Murder

Sergei Shoigu became the new Secretary of the Russian Security Council. The decree was signed by Vladimir Putin.

Shoigu will take the place of Nikolai Patrushev, who has been relieved of his post.

Vladimir Putin proposed appointing former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov to the post of Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Federation Council reported.

Lavrov remains in his position.

The full list of those whom Vladimir Putin proposed to appoint:

— appoint Boris Kovalchuk to the position of Chairman of the Accounts Chamber;

- for the post of Minister of Internal Affairs - Vladimir Aleksandrovich Kolokoltsev;

- for the post of Minister for Civil Defense, Emergency Situations and Disaster Relief - Alexander Vyacheslavovich Kurenkov;

- for the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs - Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov;

- for the post of Minister of Defense - Andrey Removich Belousov;

- for the post of Minister of Justice - Konstantin Anatolyevich Chuychenko;

- for the position of Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service - Sergey Evgenievich Naryshkin;

- for the position of director of the Federal Security Service - Alexander Vasilievich Bortnikov;

- for the position of director of the Federal Service of National Guard Troops - Viktor Vasilievich Zolotov;

- for the position of director of the Federal Security Service - Dmitry Viktorovich Kochnev;

- for the post of head of the Main Directorate of Special Programs of the President - Linz Alexander Leonidovich.

From "The Analyst":

Putin has decided to replace the defense minister Sergei Shoigu, Andrei Bilousov is the new Minister of Defence

Reference: Andrei Bilousov, aged 65, previously served as Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation from 2012 to 2013. From 2013 to 2020, he worked as an assistant to the president, and since January 2020, he has held the position of first deputy head of the government.

So the question is why? Incompetence, failure, boredom with hearing the same old stories and lies? Corruption gone too far?
Shoigu hasn’t gone too far, having been appointed to the role as Chairman of the Security Council, a presidential advisory body. Not that it does much advising. It’s often used as a place to put lame ducks out to die. They sit and make odd noises and gain praise - Medvedev is a prime example.
The most obvious thing is that the new defence minister has a background with a deeper economic outlook- and that’s something if the war is to continue at its current pace, that will be needed.
A grip or economics and the realities of supply and demand matter when the economics of the war are shredding economic realities.

ISW Daily Update Summary - Kharkiv Offensive (May 12th, 2024)

Russian forces recently made additional confirmed tactical advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the Vovchansk direction (northeast of Kharkiv City) and continued limited offensive operations in this area on May 12.

Geolocated footage published on May 11 shows Russian forces operating in southern Ohirtseve (west of Vovchansk), suggesting that Russian forces have seized the entirety of Ohirtseve.

A Ukrainian officer fighting in the Vovchansk direction noted that the situation is extremely difficult because Ukrainian forces lack adequate fortifications in the area, reporting that Russian forces have surrounded Vovchansk and that meeting engagements are already occurring within the settlement.

Several Russian milbloggers discussed fighting within Vovchansk.

ISW therefore assesses that Russian forces also likely seized Hatyshche (just northwest of Vovchansk) and Tykhe (just east of Vovchansk) given the Ukrainian officer's report that Russian forces have surrounded Vovchansk and Russian milblogger claims of street fighting within Vovchansk.

The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces attacked near Buhruvatka (west of Vovchansk), suggesting that Russian forces have likely consolidated positions between the international border and the Buhruvatka-Starytsya area.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces have advanced 2.5 kilometers in the Vovchansk direction and noted that the Russian command has deployed at least four motorized rifle battalions of the 11th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) to the Vovchansk direction.

Russian forces also recently made confirmed advances in the Lytpsi (north of Kharkiv City) direction and continued limited offensive operations in this area on May 12.

Geolocated footage published on May 12 shows that Russian forces advanced up to a windbreak south of Pylna and north of Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi).

(2/2)

“Destruction for destruction’s sake” is how Farrell described the bombardment. But it’s not. It’s standard practice for Russian warplanes to destroy civilian buildings in front-line communities in order to deprive Ukrainian troops of shelter. That the Russians are glide-bombing Vovchansk could be an indicator they intend to escalate their ground assault on the city.

If Russia’s northern campaign is a feint, then the aim is probably to draw—from the east to the north—Ukrainian brigades defending battleground cities such as Chasiv Yar. If the campaign is a real offensive, then entire regiments might attack Vovchansk in the coming days.

The dilemma, for Ukrainian leaders, is that a feint can turn into an offensive with little notice—as long as the Russians can spare the forces from their operations in the east. “It is a shrewd approach, considering Ukraine's manpower constraints,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola wrote.

*The Ukrainian military isn’t taking chances. Elements of several brigades, including the 59th Motorized Brigade and the 93rd Assault Brigade, are already in Vovchansk—or on the way. Notably, the 93rd Assault Brigade is bringing its best CV90 IFVs.*

Ukrainian commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi insisted his troops would deploy and redeploy to match the Russians’ moves. “We are aware of the enemy's plans and can respond flexibly to all of his actions,” Syrskyi said.

But even Syrskyi’s optimism concedes one important fact: Russia is acting; Ukraine is reacting. That means the Russians have the initiative.

- David Axe, Forbes

(2/2)

Joyce Vance

https://open.substack.com/pub/joycevance/p/the-week-ahead-40a?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Ukraine’s CV90 Fighting Vehicles Are Rolling Into Vovchansk, Their Crews Expecting A Russian Invasion From The North

Russian forces captured Vovchansk in the early days of the wider Russian invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian forces liberated the city seven months later as part of their first counteroffensive. Now thousands of residents are fleeing—some for the second time in just over two years—as elements of three Russian regiments close in on the city.

The battle for Vovchansk could be one of the first big fights of Russia’s new campaign in the north. After several days of probes, the main dynamics are taking shape.

It’s possible Ukrainian defenses in and around the city are thinner than they should be. “The first line of fortifications and mines simply did not exist,” Ukrainian army officer Denis Yaroslavsky claimed, partially blaming Ukrainian territorial troops who previously held the purportedly incomplete defenses.

Russian commandos are deliberately probing for gaps in Ukrainian lines like might be present in and around Vovchansk. And they’re concentrating their probes in sectors where the geography is advantageous to Russian moves.

In the case of Vovchansk, that means approaching the city from the northwest, where the Donets River forms a protective barrier on the Russians’ right flank. Hugging the river on the way to Vovchansk “allows the enemy to conserve forces,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.

Having identified a vulnerable settlement on favorable terrain, the Russians direct their satellite-guided glide bombs at the settlement as a prelude to a wider attack. According to volunteer Francis Farrell, 20 glide bombs struck Vovchansk on Saturday. “Most of them that we saw just flattened random civilian houses, killing and injuring people and animals,” Farrell wrote.

(1/2)

https://t.me/noel_reports/11833

An airliner flew over Bahkmut

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32557

✉️Ukrainian postal service 'Nova Poshta' has opened its first two branches in the capital of Great Britain, London, as reported on the company's website.

In addition, 'Nova Poshta' has launched courier delivery services there. This is already the 13th European country where the company has begun operations.

The delivery time from Ukraine to Great Britain is five days. Later, they plan to also offer the option to send and receive parcels through the InPost parcel locker network.

One of the branches in London is a postal office located at 42 Fleet St, Temple, EC4Y 1BT. The other branch is a freight office located at Unit 7, Falcon Court, St. Martin's Way, SW17 0JH.

Worried about his reputation. Good thing he didn’t say "good reputation" because he does not have one.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/clarence-thomas-is-rattled/56046/

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-has-unhinged-late-night-meltdown-about-whoopi-goldberg/56058/

Good morning Resisters everywhere. Looking like rain here. But warm enough for cargo shorts at 65⁰.

Goodnight Resisters everywhere

The 47th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has announced its results on the Avdiivka direction - over 7,000 destroyed Russians, over 100 units of equipment (including two T90 tanks), and 25 drones (ZALA, "Lancet", SuperCam).

In addition, the artillery of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade struck 3 command posts, 12 warehouses, 16 mortar teams, 6 cannons, and 18 trucks. The brigade continues to repel the Russian advance

Other news from the world:

🇬🇧 In Great Britain, for the first time in the world, a person's hearing was restored with the help of gene therapy.

18-year-old Opal Sandy has been deaf since birth due to auditory neuropathy. She was injected with a working copy of the OTOF gene into her ear. The operation lasted only 16 minutes - now the girl hears almost perfectly.

Doctors believe that the trial is just the beginning of gene therapy and marks a new era in the treatment of deafness.

@ukrainejournal

Floods continue in Putinistan. In the Omsk region, a dam broke, in the Tomsk region - 12 settlements were flooded.

Spring floods continue in Russia. In the Ust-Ishim district of the Omsk region, a dam broke again a few days ago, residents are being evacuated from the nearest territories. The village of Ashevany was completely flooded, the water hid cars and the first floors of houses. According to local media, 13 settlements are now flooded on the territory of Kailinsky, Orekhovsky, Slobodchikovsky and Ust-Ishimsky rural settlements. Also, the water washed away 4 roads of district significance, residents are forced to travel by boat. In addition, the Tevrizsky and Tarsky districts were under the threat of flooding.

In the Tomsk region, the most tense situation has developed in the Chainsky district, 12 settlements are flooded there. In the Kolpashevsky, Molchanovsky, Krivosheinsky, Teguldetsky and Bakcharsky districts, some sections and roads are flooded.

The administration of the Chainsky district notified that ten settlements were cut off from the "mainland" due to the flood.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, a total of 317 residential buildings and 467 adjacent territories remain flooded in the Ust-Ishim district of the Omsk region.

According to the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Tomsk region, more than 100 residential buildings are flooded in the region. The water level in the Tom and Ushayka rivers continues to rise. In addition, the fire season has already begun in the region.

Source

@freerussia_report