TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
This is Palmer guessing. The verdict will be tomorrow
POLAND TO BUILD VAST NEW DEFENCE LINE
Poland is about to spend $2.55 billion on a border defence system the likes of which Europe hasn’t seen since the ill fated Maginot Line.
I’m not convinced this is any more sensible than that vast scheme.
The French, having suffered massive manpower losses in the First World War, decided to build at huge expense, under the tutelage of Georges Maginot its then War Minister, a line of massive concrete walls and underground defences, with hundreds of artillery emplacements, barracks, an underground railway and air conditioning with gas resistant seals.
It ran from the Swiss border to the border with Luxembourg. The plan was to take it to the English Channel but it proved too expensive. The fate of it was humiliating - the Germans went around it in 1940, cutting through the ’impossible’ Ardennes forest and defeating France in six weeks. You can visit the wall at a couple of sites and go inside - it’s awesome.
So with that behind us and then the war in Ukraine, which has become almost what France actually expected a war with Germany to look like (minus the drones and missiles), back in the 1930’s, I can’t but help feel this is misguided. Rarely does the next war look like the last one.
However, the plan is going ahead. From Poland’s border with the Russian Kaliningrad exclave, crossing the border with Lithuania and the infamous Sulwaki salient, down the entire border with Belarus, a huge set of defences from anti-tank and vehicle obstacles, trenches, fortified bunkers to command sites is being built.
Positions with pre-stocked bunkers, anti drone warfare jamming systems, long range optical and infrared scanners, fences and minefields will be installed along the whole length of it.
To add to this Poland has ordered Swedish AEW aircraft, and four American built Aerostat systems.
These are basically static helium airships with a radar, tethered to the ground that float 4km up in the air, giving them a range of 300km to spot incoming aircraft and missiles.
Not only is this to cover defences in the traditional sense. The whole border area is to get reinforced bridges, strengthened river banks, reinforced roads, all to ensure defence forces can rapidly move from rear areas to forward ones to engage the enemy.
The scheme is truly vast. It’s also part of a plan to stop Belarus and Russia from forcing migrants they let in, just to force them over the border into the EU, a growing problem, that’s almost permanent now and worsens in the summer months. In fact it’s gotten so bad already this year, Poland has had to deploy regular army units to stop migrants from Africa - the Russians and Belarus give transit visas out to Eritreans, Sudanese and may others to get to the EU, knowing migration stirs the political right wing parties in the west.
So is this vast border defence sensible? It’s mostly about being a deterrent. Making it incredibly hard for Russia to attack without immense difficulty. Yet it also has weak spots -
there’s no plan to bring it down the Ukrainian border - what if the Russians in some unforeseen future scenario, went around it?
Poland’s paranoia over Russia is, in my view, at any other time, excessive; but not now, it’s simply being prudent. Right now I wish Britain would display some of that paranoia. Poland conducted war games some four years ago, running seven simulations of a Russian attack. The orcs arrived in Warsaw in three weeks. Not once, but every time.
Poland is largely flat and open terrain, part of the great North European Plain that extends from Holland over north Germany, Poland to the Ural mountains.
Poland was occupied by the Soviets and hasn’t forgotten what Russia did in 1939, splitting the country in two with the Nazis, then letting it be destroyed in 1944 as Warsaw was raised to the ground. They have every reason to be paranoid and all the evidence they have backs it up.
Is this the right choice? A super high tech defence line for the 21st Century?
Again remember it’s a deterrent with a purpose if deterrence fails.
Putin said that the Russian economy has become the first in Europe.
At the same time, Russians literally do not have enough money for food, and they wear the same clothes for ten years.
Rich people in Russia have gotten even richer by profiting from the war and death of Ukrainians.
Poor people in Russia have become even more impoverished, but they consider it a norm, they go to war as cannon fodder to earn and steal. If they die, their families will receive payments, and if they are alive, they steal everything they can: from children's toys and toilets to furniture and appliances.
One can imagine how much a Russian soldier would like to get to well-off Europe...
Sorry, the video is over 60 megs. Can't post one that big.
Simple heroism. Such footage is not often seen because it is not always possible to shoot it from a drone.
In this video, the soldiers of the 13th Khartiia National Guard Brigade evacuate a brother-in-arms from the village of Lyptsi, Kharkiv direction of the frontlines, under fierce fire of Russian artillery shells.
Our Warriors make the impossible look easy. But they are humans, and they need the tools to do their jobs. They deserve the world's utmost respect, support, and having their hands untied.
📹: 13th Khartiia National Guard Brigade
Kateryna Zakoretska, 35, sergeant major of the 80th Air Assault Brigade of the Air Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, died defending Ukraine.
Her eight-year-old son will forever miss his mom.
"Katia loved her family, life and believed in our Victory. After the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, she performed complex combat missions, defending the skies of Kharkiv region, and remained faithful to her military oath until her last breath," the city council said.
Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Hero.
In a neighboring country, authorities have shown such deep respect for the "heroes" eliminated in Ukraine that they quietly buried them in a graveyard for homeless people.
A resident of Chebarkul showed coffins and transport crates for "cargo 200", which were simply thrown away like garbage in a cemetery for the homeless in the Chelyabinsk region of the Russian Federation.
The bodies of Russian soldiers have disappeared somewhere. "You watch this video, and you just want to throw up your hands and exclaim, 'Does the state really not care at all?'" Russian public pages write.
She misses her father who is a hero for his Ukraine. For Europa.
@ukrainejournal
THE MACRON DOCTRINE
You might think this February past Macron decided to change the rules and everyone else would come rushing in and put him back in his box, brush it under the carpet and declare it merely a thought, a president thinking out loud.
In many nations that’s entirely likely but this is France, and under the constitution of the Fifth Republic, the office of President is one of the most singularly powerful in any western democracy. Other than its 7 year term being cut to 5 - against the wishes of then President Chirac, nothing has changed. Two terms is still ten years, 25% longer than a US President. Presidential power over foreign affairs is nearly absolute, and the President is head of the armed forces and controls the nuclear codes
completely. Even if the government is an opposition party, and it’s happened, the President still reigns supreme in this area.
Macron is in his second term, he has no electoral concerns, he can’t stand again. He has decided after years of trying to play ball with Putin, that enough is enough. And for that I admire him hugely.
The western media isolated Macron and so did many of his allies. There was a wailing from Berlin you could hear across Europe.
He looked like an idiot being told to sit down.
Except…Katja Kallas PM of Estonia agreed with him. Then so did President Pavel of Czechia. In Prague in March, Macron declared ‘Europe is cut in two by cowardice…(prepared)..to abandon its destiny to totalitarianism’.
That blew the doors off. Germany was fuming and Moscow was screaming about French imperialism.
Russian annoyance and its subsequent statements only reinforced what Macron was saying.
Macron hasn’t backed down. He’s become more specific. He’s prepared to actually send in troops if Russia broke through Ukrainian defences and Ukraine asks for help.
He’s made it clear that he won’t give Russia lines to cross - deterrence only works if you don’t know what those lines are.
It’s not just about NATO. He knows that Trump is potentially going to win the US election and another bout of that moron in office is the last thing anyone really needs. Europe in Macron’s view, needs to stand up and face off Moscow on its own without the US. And it’s a message that’s getting through.
Macron is calling out Putin for everything he does. Telling Putin directly what he thinks and knows he is doing - to France and its allies. Macron is largely supported by the key Eastern European allies. The old western states seem more reluctant.
Macron and I have a similar approach. Once a position is seen as unviable you do something radical to regain the initiative. Leadership requires thinking out of the box, being prepared to do something different.
Macron made a difference to how we all think and may well act.
After all, tanks were never being sent, long range missiles were never being sent, F-16’s were never being sent ever. Until they were.
Is Macron a genius who worked out how Putin works and has started to use it against him? Maybe. Is strategic ambiguity of doing or not doing something radical in Ukraine a deterrent? Maybe.
Only time will tell. Personally I think Macron was daring and said what needed saying. Time, I suspect may prove him right.
Putin himself uses the tactic all the time - he keeps threatening something that could be the result of crossing his invisible red lines. Maybe this is what he understands. Macron saw it and called his bluff. Call Macron what you like, but he’s the ideal messenger to get through to Putin. It’s probably the one message from the west that Putin heard and understood. And that’s invaluable.
It’s an uncertain situation. And that’s the point. Russia can’t be sure unless it happens and if it does - well that’s going to be interesting, Russia may well regret it. Russia doesn’t want a war with NATO. It would be catastrophic even if it didn’t end in nuclear use. Maybe the prospect at engaging French and other forces in Ukraine is a point that cannot be reached. And that may just at some point, end the war.
The Russians completely destroyed a Ukrainian farmer's civilian car by dropping a landmine somewhere in the bordering Chernihiv region, and they are bragging about it.
According to them, the car is of the Armed Forces, and the farmer is a "fighter" from the 144th brigade.
After 9 months they admit they have her
The russian Ministry of "Defense" (human rights abuse) admitted that Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchina, who disappeared in August, is detained in the Russian Federation
The official response that her father received from the department states that Roshchina “has been detained and is on the territory of the Russian Federation,” reports the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine.
Roshchina stopped communicating in August 2023 while preparing a report on the occupied territories of Ukraine. Before this, the Russian military had already detained her in Berdyansk, where they held her for 10 days. After she was released, she said that she had no complaints against the Russian special services.
Roshchina has been writing about the war in Ukraine since the early days of the Russian invasion in February 2022, publishing her materials in Ukrainska Pravda, Hromadske and Radio Liberty. In 2022, the International Women's Media Foundation (IWMF) awarded her the Courage in Journalism Award.
Macron, with a map in his hands, states that Ukraine should have the right to strike at military bases on the territory of the Russian Federation, from which missiles are launched
"They have the right to neutralize military sites from which missiles are launched and other military facilities from which Ukraine is attacked. But we must not allow Ukraine to hit other targets in Russia, civilian targets, of course, or other military targets," said the French president during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The Economist demonstrates how complex the full cycle of manufacturing artillery shells is, where another problem has arisen - the shortage of explosives.
ℹ️ In January, the EU admitted that it had not fulfilled its promise to provide Ukraine with one million shells by March 2024. On March 15, the EU additionally allocated 500 million euros for increasing the production of clothing. But the biggest bottleneck is something that until recently no one thought about - the lack of explosives.
ℹ️ The scheme in question is called the 'Ammunition Support Act' (Asap) and three-quarters of the funding, or around €372 million, will be allocated to manufacturers of what will be a boom. Europe needs bushels of fuel to meet its goal of producing 2 million shells a year by the end of 2025. Each artillery shell is filled with 10.8 kg of explosives such as tnt, hmx or rdx. Additional powder charges are also required to launch projectiles. Other weapons require even more explosives: for example, the warhead of the Storm Shadow missile weighs about 450 kg.
ℹ️ The problem is that explosives manufacturers are not confident that production can be scaled up and fear that the specifics of the industry will prevent the dramatic increase in production that Ukraine needs to remain competitive on the battlefield.
ℹ️ The end of the Cold War led to a sharp drop in the demand for weapons, which forced many European explosives manufacturers to reduce production or simply close their shops. Britain, for example, closed its last explosives plant in 2008. The last major European producer of TNT is located in northern Poland. In other countries, many state enterprises were either privatized or mothballed. For decades, their production was designed for peacetime conditions, and not for production on an industrial scale.
ℹ️ Let's take the explosives included in the main charge of an artillery projectile or rocket. Only a few companies still produce high-energy materials according to NATO standards. One of them is Chemring Nobel, which has its plant in Saetre (Norway). The other is the French Eurenco, which has an enterprise in Karlskoga (Sweden). After the invasion of Russia, orders from both companies increased. At Eurenco, it is filled until 2030, and the Chemring plant in Saetre is operating at full capacity.
ℹ️ These companies are currently investing in capacity expansion. But one industry insider notes that building a plant from scratch could take three to seven years. For example, the German giant Rheinmetall is building a complex for the production of explosives in Hungary, but production will not begin until 2027.
ℹ️ Explosives manufacturers also face their own problems, one of which is a shortage of skilled workers. Few young people want to work with explosives after graduation.
ℹ️ Amid these difficulties, some ammunition suppliers are looking elsewhere for explosives. Reports indicate that Indian and Japanese explosives manufacturers are partially filling this gap. Some experts are concerned that the explosives from abroad are of lower quality and therefore could damage the equipment. The rhetoric from European governments is upbeat, and it is true that some progress is being made – by the end of 2024, annual production of projectiles in the EU is forecast to reach at least 1.4 million units, up from around 500,000 a year ago.
ℹ️ When French President Emmanuel Macron laid the first brick of the Eurenco rocket fuel plant in Bergerac on April 11, he defended France's "military economy." According to him, the plant will open in record time - by 2025.
In Factum.
💥Ruzzian tank turret toss world championship entry from Ukraine
How many points would you give from 1 to 10?
North Korea has adopted a new strategy to contend with its southern neighbor: sending floating bags of trash containing “filth” across the border, carried by massive balloons, CNN reported.
The South Korean military began noticing “large amounts of balloons” arriving from the North starting Tuesday night, detecting more than 150 as of Wednesday morning, according to the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
Local governments sent messages to residents in the northern provinces to warn of the “unidentified objects,” and advised against outdoor activities. The packages risk damaging residential areas, airports, and highways.
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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