TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
Nearly half the volunteers are women.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/nearly-half-of-ternopil-defense-forces-applicants-are-women/
russia Preparing Mass Government Layoff
russia’s government is planning to resume major layoffs of public sector employees next year after they were put on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic and full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Monday.
Authorities began state service optimization reforms in 2019, which at the time saw around 10% of federal government employees lose their jobs amid a digitization rollout in the public sector.
Read more
@ukrainejournal
An unsuccesful attempt by Russian forces to cross the Psel river in the Kursk region.
After being noticed, they were immediately engaged and destroyed by the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade.
TRUMP & PUTIN MAKE FIRST MOVES
Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are set to discuss measures to persuade Donald Trump from scaling back US support for Ukraine, anticipating shifts in American foreign policy with Trump’s election. The talks will focus on persuading President Joe Biden to authorize Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory, a request Kyiv has pursued for months. UK officials hope that Biden’s approval would help solidify his foreign policy legacy and provide Ukraine with a strategic advantage. The discussions reflect broader concerns among European leaders about the impact of Trump’s expected policies on Ukraine’s defence.
This comes from the fact that Trump has already spoken to Putin, warning him not to escalate the situation in Ukraine. This was all done outside of US Government channels which Trump is suspicious of.
Originally, it was expected that Mike Pompeo and others would likely be in the new administration but comments that ‘war hawks’ were not welcome were added to Trumps specific message not to bring Pompeo aboard. That was simply a move to humiliate- any decent person would have just said nothing and ignored them.
Meanwhile Trumps son has been posting memes of Zelensky losing his ‘allowance’ once Trump is sworn in.
Anyone with any sense that things will be different with Trump this time round - that experience will have taught him to act ‘normally’ or as close as he can manage it, will in my opinion, be deeply misguided. He isn’t going to be better, he’s going to be worse - he hates ‘the system’ so much and blames it for everything that’s happened to him.
There’s not going to be any holding back. ‘Expect the unexpected’ is the only rule to hold in the new regime when it takes hold.
Old allegiances will be judged very differently. Europe needs to get its act together because it’s going to be a rough ride.
The question is how do the Poles, the East Europeans plan to stand up and be counted. Trump admires Poland and its President has a positive relationship with him. Every possible bit of leverage that Europe can gain to tip the balance in Ukraine’s favour is going to be needed.
It will be an uphill battle.
Putin will be pushing himself to breaking point to gain as much as he can before he has to deal with Trump.
It’s an odd conundrum.
He knows Trump will want peace and be wanting to be seen as having achieved it. Trump is intent not to be seen as having been forced into it, or into making Ukraine a vassal of Russia as a price for it, because it would make him look weak. So Putin needs to ensure Trump looks good while getting what Putin wants. And that will mean some kind of compromise.
And in the end Kyiv has got to agree to it so it’s not all as easy as Trump might assume. Nor will Europe abandon Ukraine completely- even though it will be glad the war ends.
The danger is that Trump tries to broker peace, Ukraine and Russia don’t agree and Trump walks away and lets them get on with it - that would be bad for everyone. Europe would have the entire war landed on its plate, Ukraine would have the fight of its life to deal with and Putin is so far up the tree he’s climbed he can’t come back down and he may never reach the top, as his economy cracks and starts to collapse. In that desperate scenario who knows where it ends or how?
Western governments are going to have to be able to rethink how they operate and respond in this second coming of Trump. Agility, the ability to be transactional no matter how unprincipled, and pandering to his views, will all be needed to get things done.
Our principal aim must be defending Ukraine no matter where the problems come from.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
@ukrainejournal
MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
A VERY BAD DAY FOR RUSSIA
Yesterday was a record casualty day for the Russians with a total loss of 1,570 men.
The last couple of days have been brutal with what seems to be increasing desperation to achieve results creating indisciplined and poorly prepared operations.
Ukraine knows that Kursk is about to be a focus of operations because Putin has apparently made it clear internally, there can’t be any talks with Ukraine holding that card as part of the negotiations.
Over the weekend the Russians screwed up their own attack in the Seversk area, opening up a new attack vector from the northwest, having previously failed from other directions on this salient.
The Ukrainian 54th Motorised Brigade prepared defences in depth to deal with just such an attack. This time the attack came along the top of the high ground so that the Ukrainians didn’t have that as a defensive advantage. If the Russians could get them off of the hills, it would restore some mobility to their stalled advance.
The hill line is quite narrow and the Russians felt surprise was better than preparing the ground with bombs and artillery.
The Ukrainians were not taken by surprise. They know how the Russians think and they knew sooner or later they would try this move.
The defence contained everything you would want for such an operation and with barely a 1km width on top of the hills and only a single road in the Russians were walking into a trap.
Eleven armoured vehicles and 100 or so soldiers pushed into the area- before they even got very far the Stugna-P ATGM’s were taking out vehicles.
Russian doctrine requires that artillery is used to suppress ATGM units, but a failure to coordinate with the batteries in the rear left the assault out in the open, unsupported. Sloppy staff work and failure to communicate effectively seems almost unforgivable at this stage of the war, but it speaks of how inexperienced many Russian units are - and that’s a direct result of the relentless losses they suffered previously and yet again throwing in untrained troops with no real world knowledge.
The whole offensive operation collapsed as drones reduced the remaining vehicles to heaps of scrap and the soldiers were taken out by Mavic grenade drones. Some did try to attack and died, the rest fled.
Unusually this attack was heavily criticised by Russian bloggers and even made some minor headlines - suggesting official acceptance that things are not going well but targeting individual commanders as incompetent. As usual they don’t address the problem- it’s lack of training and the relentless use and waste of manpower that lies at the core of it. As they don’t seem to have any means or desire for tackling that issue, nothing will change.
Up in Kursk the Russians have finally launched their first stage counter attacks in the upper Kursk salient. It’s been almost a month since things stabilised there after their initial significant advances.
The big issue for both sides was how useful would the NK forces deployed there actually be?
The target was the village of Malya Locknya, which is a crossroads and contains a heavily fortified area based around a women’s prison that sits next to a main road.
The Russians came down from the north and in from the west.
Ukraine had prepared a defence using some of its best troops. The heroic 47th, 87th Air Mobile, 17th Mechanised and 80th Air Mobile Brigades were ready and waiting.
Well prepared mine fields along the likely routes of attack, along with effective drone operations units were ready to take down as many enemy as necessary.
The Russian attack from the north came with some 15 BTR’s and 150 troops from the 810th Marine Brigade- apparently with a number of NK soldiers mixed in with them.
Three BTR’s hit mines and died with troops onboard before they even reached the combat zone.
By the time they reached their objective, a small hamlet, a total of five were already gone. Another nine were destroyed in quick succession forcing the Russians to flee with what they had left, the last BTR destroyed.CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…
Investigators quickly noticed that the attackers had been using NK guns as several were left around destroyed vehicles.
On the western axis of attack the Ukrainians didn’t wait, sending tanks of the 47th down the road to disrupt Russian preparations for that attack. This took the Russians by surprise, troops and equipment were destroyed and the tanks withdrew without loss.
Overall the initial attacks by the Russians have been a total embarrassment and NK troops clearly have no more skills or willpower under fire than their Russian counterparts.
Skilled and prepared Ukrainian defences, created based on learning how Russian forces operate and working that knowledge into real world situations tailored to every individual situation, proves how effective defences can work. Using surprise by unexpectedly spiking an attack before it begins in the right circumstances has also proven to be effective. Defensive warfare can take many forms and its real success is denying the enemy the critical strength it needs to overcome the defended objective. Keeping the attacker as far from their target and disrupting their effort to get ready to attack prevents problems before they begin.
Advance warning and intelligence gathering are critical at times like this.
Outstanding Ukrainian defence work, good communication and coordination skills, all matter when so much is at stake.
Whenever Ukraine gets it right the benefits are there for all to see. When it doesn’t the results speak for themselves.
Brilliant work by the heroic defenders.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
VITAL SATELLITE CAPABILITY SECURED FOR UKRAINE
Finnish satellite operator ICEYE and German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall have signed a contract, funded by Germany’s Ministry of Defense, to provide Ukraine with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. This agreement expands Ukraine’s access to SAR data from ICEYE, which has supported Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The contract includes dedicated satellite capacity and access to ICEYE’s full satellite fleet, enhancing Ukraine’s reconnaissance capabilities.
The firms began collaborating in June, and Rheinmetall gained exclusive rights in September to market ICEYE’s technology to government and military clients in Germany and Hungary. SAR technology, effective in all weather and lighting, has been valuable to Ukraine, with ICEYE previously dedicating satellite capacity to Ukraine in 2022 and signing an extended cooperation agreement in 2024.
These systems can detect detail on the ground in astonishing clarity providing advanced warning of movements and monitoring fixed locations for changes.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
The Origin of Remembrance Day
Remembrance Day is observed on 11 November to recall the end of First World War hostilities. Hostilities ended "at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month" of 1918, in accordance with the armistice signed.
In many countries, there is a minute of silence at 11am to remember those who died for our freedom from WWI onwards.
Red poppies became the symbol of this day due to the poppies growing throughout the fields in Flanders in WWI. People often buy one as a brooch and the proceeds go to many things including families of deceased servicemen/women and rehabilitation programs for returned soldiers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remembrance_Day
@ukrainejournal
Poland seeks British help to protect Ukraine after Trump win - The Times
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, will hold talks with the leaders of Britain, France and Nato over concerns about the impact of the US election.
Poland wants to build an alliance with Britain to prevent a sell-out of Ukraine by the West when Donald Trump enters the White House next year.
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, is to hold talks “in the coming days” with Sir Keir Starmer, President Macron of France and Mark Rutte, the secretary-general of Nato, because of concerns about the impact of the US election on the war.
On Saturday Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr, re-shared a video on Instagram of a forlorn-looking President Zelensky standing alongside Donald Trump, with the caption: “POV: You’re 38 days from losing your allowance.”
Trump was said to have spoken on the phone to President Putin on Thursday and urged him not to escalate the war in Ukraine, The Washington Post reported. However, this was strongly denied by the Kremlin on Monday.
“This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it’s just false information,” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said. “There was no conversation.”
He added: “This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications.”
Trump had spoken to Zelensky last week and was said to have told him he would support Kyiv.
Trump has repeatedly questioned the level of American backing for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invaders and boasted that he would get a peace deal “done in 24 hours”.
Britain, Poland and France are seen as key European players in preventing a new US administration from going behind Kyiv’s back to do a deal with Putin.
CONTINUED (1/2)
CONTINUES (2/2)
“This new political landscape is a serious challenge for everyone — especially in the context of a possible end to the Russian-Ukrainian war as a result of an agreement between the president of Russia and the new president of the United States,” Tusk said.
He will meet Starmer in Warsaw or London as early as this week and host Macron and Rutte in Poland in an attempt to secure western support for Ukraine via a European alliance that will include the Nordic and Baltic states.
Tusk, who dealt with Trump as president of the European Council between 2016 and 2019, once told a meeting of EU leaders that the American was “stupid” and “on a mission against what we stand for” in Europe.
His attempt to build an inner alliance on Ukraine is revealing of Europe’s fears that a peace deal with Putin could, through transfers of territory and enforced neutrality for Kyiv, hand a victory to Russia.
“We will very intensively co-ordinate co-operation with countries that have a very similar view on the geopolitical and transatlantic situation and situation in Ukraine,” he said. “Nobody wants the conflict to escalate. At the same time, nobody wants Ukraine to weaken or even capitulate; this would be a fundamental threat to Poland and Polish interests.”
During talks with Zelensky in Budapest on Thursday, Starmer pledged Britain’s “unwavering” support “to step up” in defence of Ukraine. After meetings in Hungary, which leads Europe’s pro-Russia camp, the Ukrainian leader attacked unnamed European countries for “strongly” pushing Ukraine to compromise.
European diplomats regard Britain — alongside Poland and France — as critical to holding the line in Europe because of German hesitation on, for example, allowing the Ukrainians to use missiles supplied by the West to hit targets on Russian territory.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, landed in Kyiv this weekend in the first significant expression of European support for Ukraine since Trump’s victory. “We will back Ukraine as much as we can,” he said.
During the night attack in the Tula region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck a chemical plant.
Ukrainian drones have struck the Aleksinsky chemical plant, which produces gunpowder and ammunition for the Russian military, in Russia's Tula Oblast, sources at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) report.
The SBU sources said at least 13 drones flew at the plant overnight, and orange smoke erupted due to the gunpowder at the site.
The plant itself was shut down, and personnel evacuated, a 110 kV supply was damaged.
It is also reported that in addition to the chemical plant, the Aleksin Thermal Power Plant was confirmed to have been hit, and a power line was damaged.
In 2023, the Aleksinsky Chemical Plant was included in the US sanctions list due to the production of ammunition, as well as polymers, paints and varnishes, and composite materials for the Russian military-industrial complex.
🇺🇦@ukraine_report 🇺🇦 Liz
Good morning Resisters everywhere. Something to remember when encountering MAGA
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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