TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
The tanks they are rebuilding now are in poor shape, requiring more time and materials.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/analysts-estimate-russia-s-tank-potential/
British Foreign Minister David Cameron said that unlike Israel, which London helped shoot down Iranian drones last weekend, his country cannot help Ukraine to avoid "a direct confrontation between NATO forces and the Russian army."
"I think the difficulty is that if you want to avoid an expansion of the war in Europe, I think the only thing you need to avoid is a direct confrontation between NATO forces and Russian forces. That would be a danger of escalation." Cameron emphasized.
🤦♂️🤦♂️
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged House Republicans to swiftly pass the Senate-approved national security supplemental bill, emphasizing the critical aid it provides to foreign allies like Ukraine and Israel. In a letter released Monday, Jeffries emphasized the urgency of the situation, citing the recent Iranian attack on Israel as further evidence of the pressing need for immediate action. He called on Republicans to prioritize the aid package, stressing that delays are no longer acceptable given the escalating threats faced by Ukraine and its people.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595189-jeffries-house-gop-foreign-aid/
Rest in Peace Pavlo
Sergeant of the 59th Brigade Pavlo Petrychenko died at the front during a combat mission in the Donetsk region. He worked for the famous Serhiy Prytula Foundation, many other public initatives and was an aerial recon expert within the AFU.
Recently he brought up the issue of online gambling among military personnel...
Pavlo, eternal glory to you🕯
As of April 2024, Olha Skrypnyk, head of the board of the Crimean human rights group, reports that Russia is holding at least 18 journalists captive. Skrypnyk notes that they have identified 98 officials of the occupation administration involved in the persecution of journalists, including Russian judges, prosecutors, and representatives of the FSB.
"Russia persists in unlawfully detaining civilian journalists, falsely accusing them of terrorism. Currently, we know of at least 18 journalists imprisoned, who are being denied medical care," Skrypnyk stated during the Second Black Sea Security Conference.
She further explains that following the occupation of the Kherson region in 2022, Russian military personnel abducted journalists from Kherson, transported them to Crimea, and charged them with collaborating with the Ukrainian military.
Subsequently, after the occupation of Crimea, the number of media outlets on the peninsula decreased by 12 times. The remaining media outlets operate solely in the interests of the occupation administration.
"According to occupation 'legislation,' since 2015, only 232 media outlets have been registered in Crimea. Prior to the occupation, over three thousand media outlets were active on the peninsula. It's evident that all of them operate under the control and funding of the occupiers, avoiding coverage of problematic issues and neglecting to report on the suppression of freedom of speech or violations of the rights of Crimean residents," added the human rights activist.
From "The Analyst":
CHASIV YAR: RUSSIA WANTS IT BY MAY 9th
According to General Sryski, in a press release Saturday, the Russians have set the big WW2 memorial parade day as the date for Chasiv Yar to be conquered. Dates like this have come and gone before.
The question is why is Chasiv Yar so important and can they achieve this goal in that time frame - under a month?
Lack of air defence on the front combined to a much higher sortie rate by the VKS, who have even been using Su-25 Frogfoot tactical strike aircraft again, on top of glide bombs from further behind the lines, is said to be key in making the Russian goal a reality.
May 9th is I believe, pie in the sky. This is a three to six month battle at the very least and it’s going to be expensive.
Chasiv Yar is fortified from all sides - defences have been prepared for months. A quick breakthrough seems unlikely.
The problem remains however, that Chasiv Yar is important in a way Bakhmut was not.
Bakhmut’s only importance was that it was the gateway to Chasiv Yar - the real prize in the defence chain.
If it falls there is no major settlement between it and a semi-circle of towns and villages with the vital Kramatorsk as the ultimate goal.
Between Chasiv Yar and these settlements is complex terrain and a new Ukrainian defence line, still not yet fully ready.
Chasiv Yar is the central point more or less that would allow Russian forces to radiate out against these towns, the three most southerly are closest to it, including Sloviansk. These are the last line of defence in the Donbas. Russian aims are to take all of that region and Luhansk.
Constantinivka is however the most likely target as its closest and sits on a key supply highway.
If this fell, then problems supplying the entire defence line increases dramatically.
This would force Ukraine to reinforce it, almost certainly while being under pressure in the Zaporhizia and Kupiansk directions.
Seizing these southern towns would open up the possibility of collapsing the Ukrainian defence lines and shaking up the whole of the Southeastern front.
The region behind these key towns is flatter, more rural and the Russians would be code to seizing all of what remains of Donbas- long accepted as their primary goal since it was supposedly ‘annexed’ in 2022.
The dangers of Russian advances however are many. While a quicker than expected victory at Chasiv Yar would almost certainly see a scenario like the one above - it creates a salient that is potentially soft and open to counter attacks if they can be prepared quickly.
Chasiv Yar matters. So far though Ukraine has not been successful in defending towns like this in the long term. It has extracted a high price for them - but it has also cost Ukraine dearly too.
Air defences and artillery support are critical. Only external aid can change the situation, and sadly America is the key to that this year. And we’re still nowhere near resolving that problem.
Chasiv Yar is just one of three or four potentially important choke points Ukraine will have to defend - at least two others will be used as distraction and fixing campaigns to keep Ukraine engaged elsewhere.
It’s going to be a tough summer.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
The new Ukrainian barrage munition RAM X, which was presented to Volodymyr Zelenskyi on the occasion of the Armed Forces Day.
It was already tested at the front - with its help the enemy Tunguska and other equipment were damaged.
Briefly about its capabilities:
▪️ simple launch from a catapult;
▪️ declared flight range of 100+ km;
▪️speed 180 km/h;
▪️weight of the warhead is 3 kilograms and has three types - fragmentation, thermobar and impact core;
▪️ works in pairs with a repeater drone that also searches for a target;
▪️artificial intelligence that captures the target and can bring the UAV to it by itself;
▪️the possibility of hunting for enemy reconnaissance UAVs is also planned, by installing a fragmentation warhead and controlled detonation next to the enemy drone.
Rest in Peace Brave Paratrooper
🕯️Oleksandr Baklykov, Mayor of the city of Lebedyn in Sumy Region, was killed while performing a combat mission. He served in the 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
He was joining the Armed Forces on September 2022.
“There are no former paratroopers. And for me, an experienced paratrooper, it’s incredibly painful to bury our children who die for Ukraine, for each of us,”
he wrote then.
As of April 2024, Olha Skrypnyk, head of the board of the Crimean human rights group, reports that Russia is holding at least 18 journalists captive. Skrypnyk notes that they have identified 98 officials of the occupation administration involved in the persecution of journalists, including Russian judges, prosecutors, and representatives of the FSB.
"Russia persists in unlawfully detaining civilian journalists, falsely accusing them of terrorism. Currently, we know of at least 18 journalists imprisoned, who are being denied medical care," Skrypnyk stated during the Second Black Sea Security Conference.
She further explains that following the occupation of the Kherson region in 2022, Russian military personnel abducted journalists from Kherson, transported them to Crimea, and charged them with collaborating with the Ukrainian military.
Subsequently, after the occupation of Crimea, the number of media outlets on the peninsula decreased by 12 times. The remaining media outlets operate solely in the interests of the occupation administration.
"According to occupation 'legislation,' since 2015, only 232 media outlets have been registered in Crimea. Prior to the occupation, over three thousand media outlets were active on the peninsula. It's evident that all of them operate under the control and funding of the occupiers, avoiding coverage of problematic issues and neglecting to report on the suppression of freedom of speech or violations of the rights of Crimean residents," added the human rights activist.
Rebekah Jones - Whistleblower
As of April 2024, Olha Skrypnyk, head of the board of the Crimean human rights group, reports that Russia is holding at least 18 journalists captive. Skrypnyk notes that they have identified 98 officials of the occupation administration involved in the persecution of journalists, including Russian judges, prosecutors, and representatives of the FSB.
"Russia persists in unlawfully detaining civilian journalists, falsely accusing them of terrorism. Currently, we know of at least 18 journalists imprisoned, who are being denied medical care," Skrypnyk stated during the Second Black Sea Security Conference.
She further explains that following the occupation of the Kherson region in 2022, Russian military personnel abducted journalists from Kherson, transported them to Crimea, and charged them with collaborating with the Ukrainian military.
Subsequently, after the occupation of Crimea, the number of media outlets on the peninsula decreased by 12 times. The remaining media outlets operate solely in the interests of the occupation administration.
"According to occupation 'legislation,' since 2015, only 232 media outlets have been registered in Crimea. Prior to the occupation, over three thousand media outlets were active on the peninsula. It's evident that all of them operate under the control and funding of the occupiers, avoiding coverage of problematic issues and neglecting to report on the suppression of freedom of speech or violations of the rights of Crimean residents," added the human rights activist.
As of April 2024, Olha Skrypnyk, head of the board of the Crimean human rights group, reports that Russia is holding at least 18 journalists captive. Skrypnyk notes that they have identified 98 officials of the occupation administration involved in the persecution of journalists, including Russian judges, prosecutors, and representatives of the FSB.
"Russia persists in unlawfully detaining civilian journalists, falsely accusing them of terrorism. Currently, we know of at least 18 journalists imprisoned, who are being denied medical care," Skrypnyk stated during the Second Black Sea Security Conference.
She further explains that following the occupation of the Kherson region in 2022, Russian military personnel abducted journalists from Kherson, transported them to Crimea, and charged them with collaborating with the Ukrainian military.
Subsequently, after the occupation of Crimea, the number of media outlets on the peninsula decreased by 12 times. The remaining media outlets operate solely in the interests of the occupation administration.
"According to occupation 'legislation,' since 2015, only 232 media outlets have been registered in Crimea. Prior to the occupation, over three thousand media outlets were active on the peninsula. It's evident that all of them operate under the control and funding of the occupiers, avoiding coverage of problematic issues and neglecting to report on the suppression of freedom of speech or violations of the rights of Crimean residents," added the human rights activist.
Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University and Deputy Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, believes that Russia’s defeat in the ongoing war with Ukraine is inevitable. In an analysis for The Economist, he outlined several reasons for this assessment.
Yujun argues that Russia’s struggle in the war stems from its failure to recover from the significant deindustrialization it underwent after the collapse of the USSR. Additionally, he highlights the information cocoon surrounding Russian decision-making, particularly due to Putin’s prolonged tenure in power.
Despite Russia’s nuclear capabilities, Yujun asserts that its eventual withdrawal from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, is inevitable. He credits Ukraine’s resilience and unity in resisting Russian aggression for dispelling the myth of Russia’s military invincibility.
Regarding China’s relationship with Russia, Yujun notes instability, influenced by recent events. China’s stance has shifted from unconditional support to a more traditional stance of non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting of third parties.
Yujun suggests that without significant changes in Russia’s political system and ideology, the conflict may stagnate or escalate further. He warns against the possibility of a Korean-style ceasefire, as Russia continues to attack Ukrainian positions and infrastructure, potentially leading to more conflicts in the future.
FROM THE ANALYST
TO THE BRINK BUT NOT BEYOND
Israel has been under immense pressure to show restraint. They used the phrase ‘we will act at a time and place that suits us’.
That means not yet and maybe, just maybe, never. But it’s an open ended double sided statement. Filled with strategic ambiguity and menace but also signalling a de-escalation for now.
Britain admitted its aircraft did bring down Iranian drones after all.
The sophisticated and highly capable defence system Iron Dome proved itself worthy of the name. Ukraine must only look on in awe, wishing that it had such a system for itself.
One of the interesting technical aspects of this attack was that several of the ballistic missiles were intercepted in space. That must have been THAAD, the American made Terminal High Altitude Aerospace Defence system and its Arrow-3 missiles. The first time that’s ever been used in combat.
The problem is that Israel keeps stealing the news feed while Ukraine suffers. It’s not acceptable that it gets ignored so easily.
@ukrainejournal
Ukraine and Slovakia have signed a Memorandum on enhanced cooperation in the nuclear industry.
The memorandum outlines plans to strengthen collaboration in the field of nuclear energy, focusing on the development of small modular reactors and the exchange of experience in operating nuclear installations and diversifying fuel sources.
Additionally, the parties agreed to cooperate on investment activities in the energy sector and the operation of energy systems in both countries. This includes leveraging Ukraine’s expertise in using alternative nuclear fuel at nuclear power plants.
@ukrainejournal
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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