TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

⚡️The first group of combat pilots from Ukraine has completed training on F-16 aircraft at a military base in Arizona, the spokeswoman for the US National Guard Air Force, Erin Hannigan, said, Politico reported.

“The pilots had been training at the 162d National Guard Air Force Base in Tucson,” she said.

At the same time, she did not specify how many Ukrainian soldiers were part of the group, citing compliance with operational security requirements.

📷: AFP

Good morning Resisters everywhere. I especially want to reach out to the resisters in Iran. Your time in the sun is coming

Goodnight Resisters

Germany supported the United States in the use of frozen Russian assets.

Germany has changed its position on the use of frozen Russian assets and now supports the US proposal to use them to finance Ukraine, Bloomberg writes, citing sources familiar with the negotiations.

Germany's agreement could be a turning point in a protracted discussion, after which the EU will agree to a new plan to help Kyiv and ensure the participation of the United States in it regardless of the outcome of the elections in November 2024. It refers to about $50 billion in revenues from the frozen $300 billion.

The latest U.S. proposal has been received more positively in European capitals, including Berlin, because it involves simply using asset-generated interest without confiscating the principal, officials said. EU countries have already agreed to use this revenue stream, taxing it at almost 100%, and to transfer these revenues to Ukraine twice a year. The G-7 agreement will replace this agreement.

Earlier, the United States offered to spend the frozen russian assets themselves to help Ukraine. The EU has just approved the use of revenues from them. According to the new regulations, 90% of the income received will be sent to Ukraine. They can be used both for reconstruction and for military purposes. The depositories will temporarily withhold the remaining 10% in case of their own risks.

The EU does not intend to transfer income from frozen assets to russia even after lifting of the sanctions.

European officials are not ready to confiscate the assets themselves, seeing this as a violation of international law. The United States, unlike the EU, would like to spend the frozen assets themselves, the House of Representatives in April already approved a bill that allows Ukraine to send about $6 billion of the frozen $300 billion in reserves.

The decision may be made at the G7 summit in Brindisi, Italy, on June 13-15.

Read more

@freerussia_report

The Moscow City Court rejected Vladimir Kara-Murza's appeal against the inaction of the Investigative Committee regarding his poisoning

According to Kara-Murza, the Investigative Committee did not verify the application and did not register it. “I ask that inaction in the investigation into the attempt on my life be declared unlawful,” he said.

Politician Vladimir Kara-Murza was seriously poisoned in May 2015 and February 2017. He believes that these were attempts on his life. In 2021, Bellingcat and Der Spiegel linked those involved in the Navalny investigation to the Kara-Murza case. They found out that Kara-Murza was being followed by the same people who were tailing opposition leader Alexei Navalny before his hospitalization.

In 2023, Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison in a case of “treason,” “fakes,” and participation in an “undesirable organization.” His appeal was rejected.

@freerussia_report

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/the-path-to-a-democratic-house-majority-just-became-a-lot-more-clear/56214/

We know he is actually quite cold. He complains about it all the time
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/senile-donald-trump-goes-on-bender-about-being-a-hot-guy-during-disastrous-bronx-rally-speech/56239/

RUSSIAN ATTACK ON SOUTHERN FRONT TURNS BAD

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen any major activity in the south, however Russia has no launched an offensive against the villages of Uruzaine and Stomaiorske. These were recaptured from the Russians during the Ukrainian summer offensive last year.
Ukraine has been forced to reduce its forces on less active fronts as it doesn’t have the luxury of limitless manpower. Quite possibly this encouraged the Russians to take advantage of the situation.
Much of the region is open fields and farmland so it’s difficult to get about without being seen and targeted.
The ultimate objective for Russia here is Novovalisilke which is key to the whole region’s logistics and sits north of these two villages. If the Russians push west from Donetsk and north from Urazhine then they could potentially undermine Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar which holds the key cornerstone to the front, where it turns from north-south to east-west.
The Russians started their offensive using Lancett loitering drones well behind the front to pick off Ukrainian artillery and targeted bridges on supply roads into the area.
The lack of artillery and air defences has made the area far easier for the Russians to operate, and in the past week they have managed to push north over 1km west of Stomaiorske.
This area was a key area of high ground and losing it meant the Russians were quickly inside Stomaiorske, where heavy fighting has started.
At the same time Uruzhaine came under heavy air bombardment with FAB-250 and 500’s to soften it up
prior to a ground assault.
Russian tanks and infantry reached the southern end of the village but made no breakthrough. Having failed they moved further east along the southern front to a potential weak spot that would then allow them to outflank the village.
At Uruzhaine a single Ukrainian tank managed to see off two Russian ones and three APC’s in a remarkable demonstration of movement and positioning.
The overall Russian strategy is clearly to take advantage of Ukrainian manpower and equipment shortages by stretching them in multiple places as far apart as they can so that reinforcements can’t be everywhere.
Sooner or later something has to give is the theory.
Undoubtedly in the south, given enough material the Russians could make advances, but it’s a long way to achieve anything substantial here, suggesting that it’s more about distraction and opportunity than any real gains. Those are targeted at far more important strategic and political targets in the east.
Russia is preparing a summer offensive - where its strikes will soon start to become obvious.
Ukrainian flexibility and determination to hold them off has been crucial to the defence of the southern sector.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

@EveryUkraineWarVideo Subscribe

German deputies discussing the idea to shoot down russian missiles over Ukraine from the territory of NATO countries.

NATO countries may start destroying russian missiles over Ukraine from their territory in order to relieve the load on the Ukrainian air defense system and allow Kyiv to defend the front. This idea found more support among German politicians than a possible sending of troops, writes Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

In particular, this proposal was supported by deputies of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green Party.

CDU spokesman and member of the Foreign Affairs Committee Roderich Kiesewetter cited Israel as an example, which the United States, Great Britain, France and other Western countries helped repel an Iranian air attack. According to him, this shows that such a decision will not make NATO countries a party to the conflict.

It is possible to use air defense to destroy Russian missiles from the territory of Poland and Romania, said Anton Hofreiter, head of the Bundestag Committee on European Policy. Air defense systems need to be deployed on the borders of neighboring countries so that "the western parts of Ukraine can be defended," said Agnieszka Bruger, a deputy from the Green Party.

At the same time, the implementation of this idea will require the production of more new air defense systems and missiles for them, said Markus Faber, a deputy from the Free Democratic Party.

The fact that NATO countries are studying the possibility of shooting down russian missiles over Ukraine was announced at the end of March by Deputy Polish Foreign Minister Andrzej Sheina. At the same time, he made a reservation that such a decision can be made "only with the consent of the Ukrainian side and taking into account its international consequences."

In April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the possibility that NATO countries might use their aircraft to intercept russian missiles hitting the country's energy facilities. "If this aviation rises on the territory of our neighboring countries, and shoots down missiles that certainly fly to Ukraine, but can also fly to these territories, as the facts with Poland and Romania have already been recorded, then let them shoot down these missiles, I will only applaud," Zelensky said.

Source

@freerussia_report
🇪🇺@EU_Report 🇺🇦

From "The Analyst":

LYMAN FRONT: NEW REALITIES FOR RUSSIA

The Russians constantly try to push their salient towards the Sherbets River, desperate to take the three villages centred on Torske.
Even though they have had to spend most of the past fortnight recovering, they have never entirely stopped.
You will recall from last week that the Ukrainians managed a rather successful counter attack and took back key positions in the centre of the salient, mostly in fortified tree lines. Without any resources to push back the Russians simply accepted the situation.
It does seem that during the process of reorganising and refit, the Russian command came up with a new strategy having finally learned that endless meat wave assaults weren’t cutting it and loses were simply unsustainable. Ukraine beat them off every time.
The first attacks would face Yampolivka and Terny in the north-centre of the salient and be entirely infantry based, while a second attack of armour would start a couple of days later towards Torske in the southern half of the salient, after the Ukrainian forces had moved away to fight off the northern infantry assault.
The Russians used armoured assault groups to deliver troops into the forested areas and then began their infantry attack in the northern section. These deliveries were done at very high speed so that the vehicles barely stopped and retreated once their troops were disembarked - they didn’t hang around for Ukrainian drones to find them.
Ukraine confirmed it lost a couple of small positions but that the Russian casualties had been extremely high and the defences were well prepared for them.
Then came the mechanised attacks in the south towards Torske. The first wave was three APC’s and a pair of tanks travelling in a column, it did not go well. The Ukrainians with fresh artillery started to make things difficult and the Russians then ran into a tree line choke point the Ukrainian forces had mined very heavily. The Russian tanks had to move slowly to ensure their mine rollers worked, but in doing so became sitting ducks to artillery. The entire operation became mired in the mines and soldiers disembarking the disabled carriers fled, having failed to reach anywhere defensible or engage the Ukrainians. Cluster munitions ended their careers in the military.
It was noted that all of the Russian vehicles were equipped with EW equipment designed to counter drone strikes- but that didn’t stop the artillery.
The Russian attack failed, largely due to artillery.
This is an important turning point as the Ukrainian forces had become super-reliant on drones as a substitute and the Russians have been developing EW and systems like the ludicrous looking, but oddly effective, turtle tank to overcome them. Artillery cares about neither.
Yet again Ukrainian drones can return to their primary role of artillery hunting and killing - because when it comes down to it, as a long term strategic goal, the devastating losses of Russian artillery in the last year have made significant inroads into their offensive capabilities. There are no stocks left in strategic stores, nothing to refurbish, little being made , and what they have is in the field. This is why they have become so dependent on the Grad MLRS - cheap and easy to make as a vehicle and the rockets are simple if inaccurate, they work on volume not precision.
Ukraine’s war against Russian artillery has been vital to holding the line in the past year. Russia is in the odd position of having more shells than it knows what to do with and insufficient artillery to fire it with. Long gone are the days of 60,000 rounds hitting Ukrainian forces every day. Russia’s whole armed strategy has always been masses of infantry backed by masses of artillery, and one part of that previously successful duo has been substantially reduced with the advent of drones.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

From "The Analyst":

STRATEGIC MOVES BY RUSSIA SET DANGEROUS PRECEDENTS

Russia, as it practices with deploying tactical nuclear weapons across the western front with its puppet Belarus, announced a series of unilateral coastal border changes.
Russia is changing what it regards as its borders in the Baltic with Lithuania, Estonia and Finland. Both at the Kaliningrad exclave and in the Gulf of Bothnia - the sliver of water that leads to St Petersburg.
These are tightly agreed borders and regarded as settled under the UN Law of The Sea to which Russia is a signatory.
Why are they doing it? It’s clearly a provocation to determine what the governments involved will do about it, and as you might imagine none of them have reacted positively. It’s a bit like the Chinese just suddenly declaring the South China Sea islands are all these because they say so. Nobody stopped them so now they’re de-facto Chinese. China was taken to court as it too is a signatory, but when it went against them and in favour of the Philippines, they ignored the ruling.
This is one of those cases- Russia is imposing its own changes - all the others can do is refuse to accept them and ignore it. That sets up potential zones of conflict when the legal owners face off with the claimant. Clearly the Russians are trying to create friction and tension in an effort to provoke.
They want to see how far ‘not one inch of NATO territory’ will be surrendered actually means when it comes to it.
This is a subtle choice - sea borders rather than a land border - a little more nebulous and at the same time it also looks petty to argue over it in the public eye. But it’s all about testing the lines and if they get pushback. It’s potentially a flashpoint and designed deliberately to destabilise the status quo. This is in all honesty a really dangerous and provocative thing to do when tensions are so high. It’s specifically designed to make things worse.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

A recent satellite launch (COSMOS 2553) was clearly a new Russian weapons system. The satellite quickly went into a position where it began shadowing a US spy satellite and makes frequent manoeuvres to interfere with its orbit and intercept its signals.
This is the second weapons satellite likely launched. A great deal of educated analysis suggests that another oddly manoeuvring satellite is equipped with an EMP device deigned to knock out wide ranging communications satellites in the event of conflict.
The Americans are getting very nervous about these systems. Any attack on spy or early warning/command and communications satellites would be seen as the precursor to a nuclear attack. Russia denies it of course but they always do. Aggressive use of satellites has been increasing in recent times and the Russians again, are doubling down on it. Have no doubt, these are all designed to ratchet up tensions.
Russians are constantly pressing our buttons to see what gets a reaction and what doesn’t.
The summer of 2024 is going to be one of the most dangerous we’ve faced since 1914 - when war came out of nowhere at extraordinary speed after a long period of stability between the great powers.
I have the feeling the Russians are going to test our resolve repeatedly in the coming months as they step up an asymmetric campaign of aggression and disinformation.
Europe, the UK and the US all face crucial elections in the next few months. They will use these to push their agenda and the confusion to do physical and political damage.

From "The Analyst":

FULL FRONTLINE UPDATE

KHARKIV
There’s a lot of deviation between the Russian claims, neutral claims and Ukrainian claims over who controls what and how deep the grey zone of contact is. Russian sources always claim the grey zones as their own, but this level of diversion is indicative of a very tense, very complex and fluctuating situation where neither side has a firm handle on what’s going on.
Baring in mind how much effort the Russians put into this front they’re really not doing very well or getting very far.
We have to allow for the fact they had the luxury of not being disrupted before they crossed the frontier and Ukraine had to give ground even to target them with artillery, being banned from firing over the border - which is something the Russians have been using to their distinct advantage with supply trucks and artillery.
Frankly there is a lot of surprise that Russia hasn’t made more progress. The lack of Russian APC’s and tanks is noticeable. It’s very much an infantry and drone offensive.
Even further north west the Russians are putting some 15,000 ‘poorly trained and incoherent troops’ on the Sumy section of the front.
Vovchansk is a mess, hundreds of civilians dead in the streets, widespread executions and torture chambers reported every day. This is no ‘war of liberation’ as the Russians would call it.

SHEREBETS RIVER

The land east of the river has seen a small decline in fighting. The area and salient west of Kremina, towards Torske, has been quieter in the past days.

BILAHORIVKA

There’s been reports of heavy MLRS use from the Russians. However the Russians haven’t moved.

CHASIV YAR

The Russians have gained a little land into the Canal Zone micro-district. However their losses again, disproportionately high for land gained.
They are still nowhere near the main part of the own and have not crossed the canal.
Further south and east however at Ivaniske, the Russians have made gains taking further control of a key road. They now have 90% control of Ivaniske.
However - the Russians are moaning like mad about Ukrainian artillery dramatically upscaling its rate of fire.
The Russians are trying to take the underground canal sections because they can get over them through the woods and use them to undermine the defence.

KLIESHIEVKA

The Russians claim to have complete control, but they don’t as both neutral and Ukrainian mappers and analysts say that simply isn’t true - they’re the ones using geolocated information.
Even so the village is just a pile of dust now, there’s nowhere to hide. The Russian losses here are said to run at 1:10 in Ukraine’s favour. It’s a place of constant attrition.

AVDIVKA

The Russians have seemingly slowed to a stop here having come up against obstacles almost everywhere.
Only in the southern sector out of Pervomaiske have they made small gains.
The Russians do now control Pobeda and they continue to push slowly towards Constantinivke.

URAZHINE & ROBOTYNE

The first hasn’t changed form this mornings briefing, and there’s been a lot of fighting at Robotyne. Dormiver a week the Russians have been pushing and getting nowhere.

KRYNKY

Russian forces have been attacking hard at Krynky but apparently getting nowhere.

So there’s the current situation.
My thoughts on Kharkiv are that the Russians have bitten off more than they thought. It’s been a lot more vicious and harder going than they expected.
The consequences of that are that they will be forced to suck in more of their resources more quickly as the struggle gets harder.
In fact the more Ukraine pushes back or makes it difficult for them, the more Russia needs to use to avoid being ignominiously pushed out.
That’s the trouble with these things, they take on a will of their own and Russia hates being seen to lose so to be kicked out of this region so soon isn’t acceptable. That means they have to fight hard and long and use more resources. More indeed than they set out to, just to stand still. If Ukraine gets permission to hit over the border the picture could change quickly.

Filtration camps for Ukrainians are being built in Russia, reports the National Resistance Center of Ukraine.

Large-scale construction has begun in the Russian Volga region under the guise of children's pioneer camps.

According to the National Resistance Center, the Russians are building modular houses, “more like barracks, that will accommodate hundreds of ‘visitors’”.

“The Kremlin has been building a system of filtration camps since the beginning of its occupation of Ukraine. In such zones, people are tested for loyalty to the occupation authorities. They are also trying to create a database of residents of the occupied territories,” the center reported.  

Recently, filtration measures have been intensified on the territory of Ukraine temporarily controlled by the occupation forces. Particularly strict checks are observed in the South of Ukraine.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trumps-criminal-trial-is-down-to-the-nitty-gritty-now/56220/

A lot more to the story. Well written.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/more-to-the-story/56226/

If it were easy he would already be gone
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/how-many-fucking-flags-does-sam-alito?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

https://open.substack.com/pub/alexandervindman/p/on-russian-military-activity-near?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

https://t.me/noel_reports/12243

What do we know about Robert Fico's alleged shooter?

Slovakian media has identified the shooter as 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, a self-described writer who previously worked as a security guard and is allegedly linked to ultra-right pro-Russian group Slovački branci.

According to the daily newspaper Dennik N, the suspected perpetrator is a self-described writer from the small western town of Levice and a founding member of the Rainbow Literary Club. He worked as security guard and reportedly has a gun licence.

Hungarian investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi has unearthed Facebook posts reportedly showing Cintula as a sympathiser and supporter of the pro-Russian paramilitary group Slovenskí Branci, known for its links to the Kremlin.

Slovenskí Branci has been accused of attempting to recruit young men across Slovakia for its paramilitary organisation. In a post from January 2016, Cintula is seen holding a speech next to members of the group wearing camouflage.

In the accompanying text attributed to Cintula, he expressed extremist views in support of self-organised militias, who, according to him, should be allowed to protect "the inhabitants, the country, tradition, (and) culture" from migrants coming from outside of Europe.

In an undated video posted on Facebook, the alleged attacker was seen saying: "I do not agree with government policy."

"Liquidated mass media. Why is RTVS (public broadcaster) being attacked? Why are people... Mazak, why has he been kicked out of his post," he continued, in reference to Jan Mazak who had been removed as chairman of a state judicial council.

Reuters verified the person in the video matched images of the man arrested after Fico's shooting.

Allies of Fico hastened to blame "liberal media" for the attack, accusing journalists of "creating an environment that promoted hatred" for Fico and his populist policies.

"You, liberal media and political opposition. What hatred you spread against Robert Fico."

Source

Interesting twist. A pro-Kremlin ultra-right extremist shooting a pro-Kremlin PM 'making a sacrifice' in order to help fan the flames just before European elections?

🇪🇺@EU_Report 🇸🇰

Fossil fuels generated less than a quarter of the EU's electricity in April.

The drop in fossil fuel generation was driven by wind and solar growth as well as the recovery of hydropower.

Fossil fuels provided less than a quarter of the EU’s energy for the first time in April.

The good news comes from energy think tank Ember which found that the proportion of electricity generated by fossil fuels in the bloc fell to a record low of 23 per cent last month - a sharp drop of 22 per cent compared to April 2023 despite an increase in demand. It also surpasses the previous record low of 27 per cent from May 2023.

Wind and solar growth as well as the recovery of hydropower drove the fall in fossil fuel generation and increased the share of renewables in the electricity mix to a record 54 per cent.

Wind and solar alone generated more than a third of the EU’s electricity in April while gas and coal fell. Coal contributed just 8.6 per cent of the energy mix compared to 30 per cent in 2023. Gas provided 12.1 per cent of the EU’s electricity - a 22 per cent decline year-on-year.

“The once unthinkable is happening before our eyes,” says Sarah Brown, Ember’s Europe Programme Director.

“Fossil fuels are on the way out of Europe’s power sector. Solar and wind have stepped up as the main players, proving they are ready to take on their role as the backbone of the modern clean electricity system.”

Germany saw the largest drop in fossil fuel generation in April when compared to last year. Seven coal fired power stations closed in the country at the end of March 2024 after their shut down was postponed due to the energy crisis. Overall, electricity from fossil fuels fell by 26 % in Germany representing 32 % of the total EU fall. Italy saw the second biggest drop of 24 % contributing another 15 % of the EU’s total reduction in fossil fuel electricity. Spain was next, followed by France and the Netherlands.

Despite rising demand, fossil fuel electricity generation still fell as renewables displaced them from the mix. Brown points to coal as an example of this.

“From 2016 to 2023, coal fell by over 300 terawatt hours and there was a similar rise in wind and solar over that period,” she explains. “So we are seeing that the structural decline of coal is very much being replaced by wind and solar.”

Read more

🇪🇺@EU_Report 🇪🇺