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Do the unvaccinated disproportionately harm the vaccinated in a respiratory pandemic? arxiv.org/abs/2412.15319

Do the unvaccinated disproportionately harm the vaccinated in a respiratory pandemic?

A parameter $ψ$ was recently defined and introduced into the epidemiological modelling scientific literature, and is being accepted. The said parameter was used to argue that there was a disproportionate risk of infection incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons during the declared COVID-19 pandemic. Opposing published results show that, in general, there is virtually never a disproportionate risk to the vaccinated from the unvaccinated during a respiratory pandemic. Here, we show that the newly introduced vaccinology parameter $ψ$ is incorrectly defined and that the conclusions of disproportionate risk are not valid. Specifically, we prove that the originating authors Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) incorrectly defined and applied the parameter $ψ$. Their application would imply that the said risk increases with increasing segregation from the unvaccinated (up to complete segregation), increases with increasing vaccination coverage (up to complete coverage) and increases with increasing vaccine efficacy (up to perfect vaccine efficacy), which is impossible. Use of the erroneous parameter $ψ$ has the potential to encourage unnecessarily aggressive public health policies and interventions.

arXiv.org

What Leads to Administrative Bloat? A Dynamic Model of Administrative Cost and Waste arxiv.org/abs/2412.15378

What Leads to Administrative Bloat? A Dynamic Model of Administrative Cost and Waste

We formulate a quantitative, dynamic model that captures how environmental change, alignment with the environment, managerial decisions, and resource constraints interact to give rise to administrative bloat in organizations, resulting in organizational failure. Inspired by empirical findings, we model codified processes that, while initially useful, become obsolete as conditions change, consuming resources until actively removed. Our model predicts a critical threshold in management decision parameters -- the propensity to create processes in response to problems, and the propensity to prune obsolete processes in response to administrative burden. This threshold determines two possible outcomes: a sustainable equilibrium, where administrative costs stabilize below resource limits, and runaway administrative bloat, where costs -- dominated by obsolete processes -- grow to resource capacity. The threshold worsens with faster environmental changes. A short-term environmental shock exceeding a critical threshold can push organizations from sustainability into bloat cycles, highlighting the risks posed by events like technological upheaval. Importantly, process creation and pruning propensities have asymmetrical impacts on outcomes. Avoiding administrative bloat requires carefully balancing codified and ad-hoc solutions, weighing error costs, and anticipating future process obsolescence. Finally, We also discuss how our model may be applied to generate insight from existing and future data.

arXiv.org

Assessing Students' Understanding of Uncertainty in Undergraduate Physics Laboratory Courses at a Major Canadian University: Longitudinal Results and Misconceptions arxiv.org/abs/2412.15382

Assessing Students' Understanding of Uncertainty in Undergraduate Physics Laboratory Courses at a Major Canadian University: Longitudinal Results and Misconceptions

Over the last five years, McGill University's Office of Science Education (OSE) has partnered with faculty members from the Department of Physics to form an education working group with the aim of charting the progression of students' conceptual understanding of uncertainties across their undergraduate degree. The research conducted by this group seeks to provide further insight into both the experimental skill set that students gain through undergraduate laboratory courses and how the department could address noticeable gaps in student understanding. In this paper, we evaluate the conceptual understanding of uncertainty using the Concise Data Processing Assessment (CDPA) instrument. First, we characterize the physics laboratory curriculum at McGill University by evaluating the evolution of CDPA scores across consecutive laboratory courses, and further propose the utilization of this tool for identifying gaps in student understanding. Following the analysis of student responses (N=2023), we specifically investigate data collected in second-year courses to better diagnose what student errors can tell us about common misconceptions in experimental physics. This more in-depth research focuses on data collected from students at the beginning and the end of their first full year of experimental laboratory courses, consisting of two consecutive laboratory courses that build on each other. By the end of the second course, students have engaged with all the material covered in the CDPA test. Interestingly, there have been no changes in CDPA total scores throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. We notice a marked upward shift in student understanding; however, the results indicate that a significant portion of students continue to struggle with uncertainties, basic data analysis, and curve fitting.

arXiv.org

Ground Motion Characteristics of Cascading Earthquakes in a Multiscale Fracture Network arxiv.org/abs/2412.15416

Ground Motion Characteristics of Cascading Earthquakes in a Multiscale Fracture Network

Fault zones exhibit geometrical complexity and are often surrounded by multiscale fracture networks within their damage zones, influencing rupture dynamics and near-field ground motions. We investigate the ground-motion characteristics of cascading ruptures across damage zone fracture networks of moderate-sized earthquakes using high-resolution 3D dynamic rupture simulations. Our models feature a listric fault surrounded by over 800 fractures, emulating a major fault and its associated damage zone. We analyze three cases: a cascading rupture propagating within the fracture network, a non-cascading main-fault rupture with off-fault fracture slip, and a main-fault rupture without a fracture network. Cascading ruptures within the fracture network produce distinct ground-motion signatures with high-frequency content, arising from simultaneous slip of multiple fractures and parts of the main fault, resembling source coda-wave-like signatures. This case shows elevated near-field characteristic frequency (fc) and stress drop, approximately an order of magnitude higher than the estimation directly on the fault of the dynamic rupture simulation. The inferred fc of the modeled vertical components reflects the complexity of the radiation pattern and rupture directivity of cascading earthquakes. We show that this is consistent with observations of strong azimuthal dependence of corner frequency in the 2009-2016 Central Apennines, Italy, earthquake sequence. Simulated ground motions from cascading ruptures also show pronounced azimuthal variations in peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity, and pseudo-spectral acceleration, with average PGA nearly double that of the non-cascading cases. Such outcomes emphasize the critical role of fault-zone complexity in affecting rupture dynamics and seismic radiation and have important implications for physics-based seismic hazard assessment.

arXiv.org

Forward and Inverse Simulation of Pseudo-Two-Dimensional Model of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Neural Networks arxiv.org/abs/2412.13200

Robust chiral optical force via electric dipole interactions, inspired by a sea creature arxiv.org/abs/2412.13206

Domain Structure and Interface Control of Mechanical Stiffness in Sustainable Cellulose Bio-nanocomposites arxiv.org/abs/2412.13210

The integral form of Gauss' law for a generic case of the electrodynamics arxiv.org/abs/2412.13221

Towards Real-time Adaptive Anisotropic Image-to-mesh Conversion for Vascular Flow Simulations arxiv.org/abs/2412.13222

Optical Coherence Elastography Measures Mechanical Tension in the Lens and Capsule in situ arxiv.org/abs/2412.13262

Spatial evolution of droplet size and velocity characteristics in a swirl spray arxiv.org/abs/2412.13293

A New Method to Derive an Empirical Lower Limit on the Mass Density of a UFO arxiv.org/abs/2412.12142

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