arXiv Statistics @arxiv_stats@qoto.org

This paper presents a novel sampling scheme for masked non-autoregressive generative modeling. We identify the limitations of TimeVQVAE, MaskGIT, and Token-Critic in their sampling processes, and propose Enhanced Sampling Scheme (ESS) to overcome these limitations. ESS explicitly ensures both sample diversity and fidelity, and consists of three stages: Naive Iterative Decoding, Critical Reverse Sampling, and Critical Resampling. ESS starts by sampling a token set using the naive iterative decoding as proposed in MaskGIT, ensuring sample diversity. Then, the token set undergoes the critical reverse sampling, masking tokens leading to unrealistic samples. After that, critical resampling reconstructs masked tokens until the final sampling step is reached to ensure high fidelity. Critical resampling uses confidence scores obtained from a self-Token-Critic to better measure the realism of sampled tokens, while critical reverse sampling uses the structure of the quantized latent vector space to discover unrealistic sample paths. We demonstrate significant performance gains of ESS in both unconditional sampling and class-conditional sampling using all the 128 datasets in the UCR Time Series archive.

Model-based deep learning solutions to inverse problems have attracted increasing attention in recent years as they bridge state-of-the-art numerical performance with interpretability. In addition, the incorporated prior domain knowledge can make the training more efficient as the smaller number of parameters allows the training step to be executed with smaller datasets. Algorithm unrolling schemes stand out among these model-based learning techniques. Despite their rapid advancement and their close connection to traditional high-dimensional statistical methods, they lack certainty estimates and a theory for uncertainty quantification is still elusive. This work provides a step towards closing this gap proposing a rigorous way to obtain confidence intervals for the LISTA estimator.

Women are at increased risk of bone loss during the menopausal transition; in fact, nearly 50\% of women's lifetime bone loss occurs during this time. The longitudinal relationships between estradiol (E2) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), two hormones that change have characteristic changes during the menopausal transition, and bone health outcomes are complex. However, in addition to level and rate of change in E2 and FSH, variability in these hormones across the menopausal transition may be an important predictor of bone health, but this question has yet to be well explored. We introduce a joint model that characterizes individual mean estradiol (E2) trajectories and the individual residual variances and links these variances to bone health trajectories. In our application, we found that higher FSH variability was associated with declines in bone mineral density (BMD) before menopause, but this association was moderated over time after the menopausal transition. Additionally, higher mean E2, but not E2 variability, was associated with slower decreases in during the menopausal transition. We also include a simulation study that shows that naive two-stage methods often fail to propagate uncertainty in the individual-level variance estimates, resulting in estimation bias and invalid interval coverage

We study treatment effect estimation with functional treatments where the average potential outcome functional is a function of functions, in contrast to continuous treatment effect estimation where the target is a function of real numbers. By considering a flexible scalar-on-function marginal structural model, a weight-modified kernel ridge regression (WMKRR) is adopted for estimation. The weights are constructed by directly minimizing the uniform balancing error resulting from a decomposition of the WMKRR estimator, instead of being estimated under a particular treatment selection model. Despite the complex structure of the uniform balancing error derived under WMKRR, finite-dimensional convex algorithms can be applied to efficiently solve for the proposed weights thanks to a representer theorem. The optimal convergence rate is shown to be attainable by the proposed WMKRR estimator without any smoothness assumption on the true weight function. Corresponding empirical performance is demonstrated by a simulation study and a real data application.

Under missing-not-at-random (MNAR) sample selection bias, the performance of a prediction model is often degraded. This paper focuses on one classic instance of MNAR sample selection bias where a subset of samples have non-randomly missing outcomes. The Heckman selection model and its variants have commonly been used to handle this type of sample selection bias. The Heckman model uses two separate equations to model the prediction and selection of samples, where the selection features include all prediction features. When using the Heckman model, the prediction features must be properly chosen from the set of selection features. However, choosing the proper prediction features is a challenging task for the Heckman model. This is especially the case when the number of selection features is large. Existing approaches that use the Heckman model often provide a manually chosen set of prediction features. In this paper, we propose Heckman-FA as a novel data-driven framework for obtaining prediction features for the Heckman model. Heckman-FA first trains an assignment function that determines whether or not a selection feature is assigned as a prediction feature. Using the parameters of the trained function, the framework extracts a suitable set of prediction features based on the goodness-of-fit of the prediction model given the chosen prediction features and the correlation between noise terms of the prediction and selection equations. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that Heckman-FA produces a robust regression model under MNAR sample selection bias.

We analyze the generalization properties of two-layer neural networks in the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime, trained with gradient descent (GD). For early stopped GD we derive fast rates of convergence that are known to be minimax optimal in the framework of non-parametric regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. On our way, we precisely keep track of the number of hidden neurons required for generalization and improve over existing results. We further show that the weights during training remain in a vicinity around initialization, the radius being dependent on structural assumptions such as degree of smoothness of the regression function and eigenvalue decay of the integral operator associated to the NTK.

Point-to-point permutation channels are useful models of communication networks and biological storage mechanisms and have received theoretical attention in recent years. Propelled by relevant advances in this area, we analyze the permutation adder multiple-access channel (PAMAC) in this work. In the PAMAC network model, $d$ senders communicate with a single receiver by transmitting $p$-ary codewords through an adder multiple-access channel whose output is subsequently shuffled by a random permutation block. We define a suitable notion of permutation capacity region $\mathcal{C}_\mathsf{perm}$ for this model, and establish that $\mathcal{C}_\mathsf{perm}$ is the simplex consisting of all rate $d$-tuples that sum to $d(p - 1) / 2$ or less. We achieve this sum-rate by encoding messages as i.i.d. samples from categorical distributions with carefully chosen parameters, and we derive an inner bound on $\mathcal{C}_\mathsf{perm}$ by extending the concept of time sharing to the permutation channel setting. Our proof notably illuminates various connections between mixed-radix numerical systems and coding schemes for multiple-access channels. Furthermore, we derive an alternative inner bound on $\mathcal{C}_\mathsf{perm}$ for the binary PAMAC by analyzing the root stability of the probability generating function of the adder's output distribution. Using eigenvalue perturbation results, we obtain error bounds on the spectrum of the probability generating function's companion matrix, providing quantitative estimates of decoding performance. Finally, we obtain a converse bound on $\mathcal{C}_\mathsf{perm}$ matching our achievability result.

In this work, we consider the problem of goodness-of-fit (GoF) testing for parametric models -- for example, testing whether observed data follows a logistic regression model. This testing problem involves a composite null hypothesis, due to the unknown values of the model parameters. In some special cases, co-sufficient sampling (CSS) can remove the influence of these unknown parameters via conditioning on a sufficient statistic -- often, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the unknown parameters. However, many common parametric settings (including logistic regression) do not permit this approach, since conditioning on a sufficient statistic leads to a powerless test. The recent approximate co-sufficient sampling (aCSS) framework of Barber and Janson (2022) offers an alternative, replacing sufficiency with an approximately sufficient statistic (namely, a noisy version of the MLE). This approach recovers power in a range of settings where CSS cannot be applied, but can only be applied in settings where the unconstrained MLE is well-defined and well-behaved, which implicitly assumes a low-dimensional regime. In this work, we extend aCSS to the setting of constrained and penalized maximum likelihood estimation, so that more complex estimation problems can now be handled within the aCSS framework, including examples such as mixtures-of-Gaussians (where the unconstrained MLE is not well-defined due to degeneracy) and high-dimensional Gaussian linear models (where the MLE can perform well under regularization, such as an $\ell_1$ penalty or a shape constraint).

The family of multivariate skew-normal distributions has many interesting properties. It is shown here that these hold for a general class of skew-elliptical distributions. For this class, several stochastic representations are established and then their probabilistic properties, such as characteristic function, moments, quadratic forms as well as transformation properties, are investigated.

Coronary stent designs have undergone significant transformations in geometry, materials, and drug elution coatings, contributing to the continuous improvement of stenting success over recent decades. However, the increasing use of percutaneous coronary intervention techniques on complex coronary artery disease anatomy continues to be a challenge and pushes the boundary to improve stent designs. Design optimisation techniques especially are a unique set of tools used to assess and balance competing design objectives, thus unlocking the capacity to maximise the performance of stents. This review provides a brief history of metallic and bioresorbable stent design evolution, before exploring the latest developments in performance metrics and design optimisation techniques in detail. This includes insights on different contemporary stent designs, mechanical and haemodynamic performance metrics, shape and topology representation, and optimisation along with the use of surrogates to deal with the underlying computationally expensive nature of the problem. Finally, an exploration of current key gaps and future possibilities is provided that includes hybrid optimisation of clinically relevant metrics, non-geometric variables such as material properties, and the possibility of personalised stenting devices.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is one of the most important diagnostic tools in clinical applications. With the advent of advanced algorithms, various deep learning models have been adopted for ECG tasks. However, the potential of Transformers for ECG data is not yet realized, despite their widespread success in computer vision and natural language processing. In this work, we present a useful masked Transformer method for ECG classification referred to as MTECG, which expands the application of masked autoencoders to ECG time series. We construct a dataset comprising 220,251 ECG recordings with a broad range of diagnoses annoated by medical experts to explore the properties of MTECG. Under the proposed training strategies, a lightweight model with 5.7M parameters performs stably well on a broad range of masking ratios (5%-75%). The ablation studies highlight the importance of fluctuated reconstruction targets, training schedule length, layer-wise LR decay and DropPath rate. The experiments on both private and public ECG datasets demonstrate that MTECG-T significantly outperforms the recent state-of-the-art algorithms in ECG classification.

Line outage identification in distribution grids is essential for sustainable grid operation. In this work, we propose a practical yet robust detection approach that utilizes only readily available voltage magnitudes, eliminating the need for costly phase angles or power flow data. Given the sensor data, many existing detection methods based on change-point detection require prior knowledge of outage patterns, which are unknown for real-world outage scenarios. To remove this impractical requirement, we propose a data-driven method to learn the parameters of the post-outage distribution through gradient descent. However, directly using gradient descent presents feasibility issues. To address this, we modify our approach by adding a Bregman divergence constraint to control the trajectory of the parameter updates, which eliminates the feasibility problems. As timely operation is the key nowadays, we prove that the optimal parameters can be learned with convergence guarantees via leveraging the statistical and physical properties of voltage data. We evaluate our approach using many representative distribution grids and real load profiles with 17 outage configurations. The results show that we can detect and localize the outage in a timely manner with only voltage magnitudes and without assuming a prior knowledge of outage patterns.

MELAGE, a pioneering Python-based neuroimaging software, emerges as a versatile tool for the visualization, processing, and analysis of medical images. Initially conceived to address the unique challenges of processing 3D ultrasound and MRI brain images during the neonatal period, MELAGE exhibits remarkable adaptability, extending its utility to the domain of adult human brain imaging. At its core, MELAGE features a semi-automatic brain extraction tool empowered by a deep learning module, ensuring precise and efficient brain structure extraction from MRI and 3D Ultrasound data. Moreover, MELAGE offers a comprehensive suite of features, encompassing dynamic 3D visualization, accurate measurements, and interactive image segmentation. This transformative software holds immense promise for researchers and clinicians, offering streamlined image analysis, seamless integration with deep learning algorithms, and broad applicability in the realm of medical imaging.

In consequential domains, it is often impossible to compel individuals to take treatment, so that optimal policy rules are merely suggestions in the presence of human non-adherence to treatment recommendations. In these same domains, there may be heterogeneity both in who responds in taking-up treatment, and heterogeneity in treatment efficacy. While optimal treatment rules can maximize causal outcomes across the population, access parity constraints or other fairness considerations can be relevant in the case of encouragement. For example, in social services, a persistent puzzle is the gap in take-up of beneficial services among those who may benefit from them the most. When in addition the decision-maker has distributional preferences over both access and average outcomes, the optimal decision rule changes. We study causal identification, statistical variance-reduced estimation, and robust estimation of optimal treatment rules, including under potential violations of positivity. We consider fairness constraints such as demographic parity in treatment take-up, and other constraints, via constrained optimization. Our framework can be extended to handle algorithmic recommendations under an often-reasonable covariate-conditional exclusion restriction, using our robustness checks for lack of positivity in the recommendation. We develop a two-stage algorithm for solving over parametrized policy classes under general constraints to obtain variance-sensitive regret bounds. We illustrate the methods in two case studies based on data from randomized encouragement to enroll in insurance and from pretrial supervised release with electronic monitoring.

In 2022, the American Statistical Association revised its Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice. Originally issued in 1982, these Guidelines describe responsibilities of the 'ethical statistical practitioner' to their profession, to their research subjects, as well as to their community of practice. These guidelines are intended as a framework to assist decision-making by statisticians working across academic, research, and government environments. For the first time, the 2022 Guidelines describe the ethical obligations of organizations and institutions that use statistical practice. This paper examines alignment between the ASA Ethical Guidelines and other long-established normative guidelines for US official statistics: the OMB Statistical Policy Directives 1, 2, and 2a NASEM Principles and Practices, and the OMB Data Ethics Tenets. Our analyses ask how the recently updated ASA Ethical Guidelines can support these guidelines for federal statistics and data science. The analysis uses a form of qualitative content analysis, the alignment model, to identify patterns of alignment, and potential for tensions, within and across guidelines. The paper concludes with recommendations to policy makers when using ethical guidance to establish parameters for policy change and the administrative and technical controls that necessarily follow.

The asymptotic behaviour of the quantiles in the gamma distribution is investigated as the shape parameter tends to zero and as it tends to infinity.

Variational algorithms require architectures that naturally constrain the optimisation space to run efficiently. In geometric quantum machine learning, one achieves this by encoding group structure into parameterised quantum circuits to include the symmetries of a problem as an inductive bias. However, constructing such circuits is challenging as a concrete guiding principle has yet to emerge. In this paper, we propose the use of spin networks, a form of directed tensor network invariant under a group transformation, to devise SU(2) equivariant quantum circuit ansätze -- circuits possessing spin rotation symmetry. By changing to the basis that block diagonalises SU(2) group action, these networks provide a natural building block for constructing parameterised equivariant quantum circuits. We prove that our construction is mathematically equivalent to other known constructions, such as those based on twirling and generalised permutations, but more direct to implement on quantum hardware. The efficacy of our constructed circuits is tested by solving the ground state problem of SU(2) symmetric Heisenberg models on the one-dimensional triangular lattice and on the Kagome lattice. Our results highlight that our equivariant circuits boost the performance of quantum variational algorithms, indicating broader applicability to other real-world problems.

Tens of thousands of simultaneous hypothesis tests are routinely performed in genomic studies to identify differentially expressed genes. However, due to unmeasured confounders, many standard statistical approaches may be substantially biased. This paper investigates the large-scale hypothesis testing problem for multivariate generalized linear models in the presence of confounding effects. Under arbitrary confounding mechanisms, we propose a unified statistical estimation and inference framework that harnesses orthogonal structures and integrates linear projections into three key stages. It first leverages multivariate responses to separate marginal and uncorrelated confounding effects, recovering the confounding coefficients' column space. Subsequently, latent factors and primary effects are jointly estimated, utilizing $\ell_1$-regularization for sparsity while imposing orthogonality onto confounding coefficients. Finally, we incorporate projected and weighted bias-correction steps for hypothesis testing. Theoretically, we establish various effects' identification conditions and non-asymptotic error bounds. We show effective Type-I error control of asymptotic $z$-tests as sample and response sizes approach infinity. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method controls the false discovery rate by the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure and is more powerful than alternative methods. By comparing single-cell RNA-seq counts from two groups of samples, we demonstrate the suitability of adjusting confounding effects when significant covariates are absent from the model.

The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is likely in part due to complexity of implementation and often specific and restrictive data requirements required for application of each method. With the advent of sensitivity analyses methods that are broadly applicable in that they do not require identification of a specific unmeasured confounder, along with publicly available code for implementation, roadblocks toward broader use are decreasing. To spur greater application, here we present a best practice guidance to address the potential for unmeasured confounding at both the design and analysis stages, including a set of framing questions and an analytic toolbox for researchers. The questions at the design stage guide the research through steps evaluating the potential robustness of the design while encouraging gathering of additional data to reduce uncertainty due to potential confounding. At the analysis stage, the questions guide researchers to quantifying the robustness of the observed result and providing researchers with a clearer indication of the robustness of their conclusions. We demonstrate the application of the guidance using simulated data based on a real-world fibromyalgia study, applying multiple methods from our analytic toolbox for illustration purposes.

This study presents a comparative analysis of three predictive models with an increasing degree of flexibility: hidden dynamic geostatistical models (HDGM), generalised additive mixed models (GAMM), and the random forest spatiotemporal kriging models (RFSTK). These models are evaluated for their effectiveness in predicting PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations in Lombardy (North Italy) from 2016 to 2020. Despite differing methodologies, all models demonstrate proficient capture of spatiotemporal patterns within air pollution data with similar out-of-sample performance. Furthermore, the study delves into station-specific analyses, revealing variable model performance contingent on localised conditions. Model interpretation, facilitated by parametric coefficient analysis and partial dependence plots, unveils consistent associations between predictor variables and PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations. Despite nuanced variations in modelling spatiotemporal correlations, all models effectively accounted for the underlying dependence. In summary, this study underscores the efficacy of conventional techniques in modelling correlated spatiotemporal data, concurrently highlighting the complementary potential of Machine Learning and classical statistical approaches.