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Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the effects of multiple treatments are of simultaneous interest, finding a sufficient number of proxy variables for consistent estimation of treatment effects can be challenging. Various methods in the literature exploit the structure of multiple treatments to address unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to causal inference with multiple treatments, assuming sparsity in the causal effects. Our procedure autonomously selects treatments with non-zero causal effects, thereby providing a sparse causal estimation. Comprehensive evaluations using both simulated and Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method compared to alternative approaches.

For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the expectation of the logarithm of an importance sampling estimate of the likelihood with respect to both the latent variable model parameters and the importance distribution parameters, the expectation being itself with respect to the importance samples. Despite its great empirical success in machine learning, a theoretical analysis of the limit properties of the resulting estimates is still lacking. We fill this gap by establishing consistency when both the Monte Carlo and the observed data sample sizes go to infinity simultaneously. We also establish asymptotic normality and efficiency under additional conditions relating the rate of growth between the Monte Carlo and the observed data samples sizes. We distinguish several regimes related to the smoothness of the importance ratio.

Spherical regression, where both covariate and response variables are defined on the sphere, is a required form of data analysis in several scientific disciplines, and has been the subject of substantial methodological development in recent years. Yet, it remains a challenging problem due to the complexities involved in constructing valid and expressive regression models between spherical domains, and the difficulties involved in quantifying uncertainty of estimated regression maps. To address these challenges, we propose casting spherical regression as a problem of optimal transport within a Bayesian framework. Through this approach, we obviate the need for directly parameterizing a spherical regression map, and are able to quantify uncertainty on the inferred map. We derive posterior contraction rates for the proposed model under two different prior specifications and, in doing so, obtain a result on the quantitative stability of optimal transport maps on the sphere, one that may be useful in other contexts. The utility of our approach is demonstrated empirically through a simulation study and through its application to real data.

We provide a full characterization of the concept classes that are optimistically universally online learnable with $\{0, 1\}$ labels. The notion of optimistically universal online learning was defined in [Hanneke, 2021] in order to understand learnability under minimal assumptions. In this paper, following the philosophy behind that work, we investigate two questions, namely, for every concept class: (1) What are the minimal assumptions on the data process admitting online learnability? (2) Is there a learning algorithm which succeeds under every data process satisfying the minimal assumptions? Such an algorithm is said to be optimistically universal for the given concept class. We resolve both of these questions for all concept classes, and moreover, as part of our solution, we design general learning algorithms for each case. Finally, we extend these algorithms and results to the agnostic case, showing an equivalence between the minimal assumptions on the data process for learnability in the agnostic and realizable cases, for every concept class, as well as the equivalence of optimistically universal learnability.

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have shown tremendous promise in addressing data-intensive challenges in recent years. In particular, some attempts have been made to improve predictions of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models by incorporating human mobility between metapopulations and using graph approaches to estimate corresponding hyperparameters. Recently, researchers have found that a hybrid GCN-SIR approach outperformed existing methodologies when used on the data collected on a precinct level in Japan. In our work, we extend this approach to data collected from the continental US, adjusting for the differing mobility patterns and varying policy responses. We also develop the strategy for real-time continuous estimation of the reproduction number and study the accuracy of model predictions for the overall population as well as individual states. Strengths and limitations of the GCN-SIR approach are discussed as a potential candidate for modeling disease dynamics.

Using the National Academies report, {\em Data Science for Undergraduates: Opportunities and Options}, we connect data science curricula to the more familiar pedagogy used by many mathematical scientists. We use their list of ``data acumen" components to ground a discussion, which hopes to connect data science curricula to the more familiar pedagogy used by many mathematical scientists.

Modern precision medicine aims to utilize real-world data to provide the best treatment for an individual patient. An individualized treatment rule (ITR) maps each patient's characteristics to a recommended treatment scheme that maximizes the expected outcome of the patient. A challenge precision medicine faces is population heterogeneity, as studies on treatment effects are often conducted on source populations that differ from the populations of interest in terms of the distribution of patient characteristics. Our research goal is to explore a transfer learning algorithm that aims to address the population heterogeneity problem and obtain targeted, optimal, and interpretable ITRs. The algorithm incorporates a calibrated augmented inverse probability weighting (CAIPW) estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE) and employs value function maximization for the target population using Genetic Algorithm (GA) to produce our desired ITR. To demonstrate its practical utility, we apply this transfer learning algorithm to two large medical databases, Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) and Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). We first identify the important covariates, treatment options, and outcomes of interest based on the two databases, and then estimate the optimal linear ITRs for patients with sepsis. Our research introduces and applies new techniques for data fusion to obtain data-driven ITRs that cater to patients' individual medical needs in a population of interest. By emphasizing generalizability and personalized decision-making, this methodology extends its potential application beyond medicine to fields such as marketing, technology, social sciences, and education.

Micro-randomized trials (MRTs), which sequentially randomize participants at multiple decision times, have gained prominence in digital intervention development. These sequential randomizations are often subject to certain constraints. In the MRT called HeartSteps V2V3, where an intervention is designed to interrupt sedentary behavior, two core design constraints need to be managed: an average of 1.5 interventions across days and the uniform delivery of interventions across decision times. Meeting both constraints, especially when the times allowed for randomization are not determined beforehand, is challenging. An online algorithm was implemented to meet these constraints in the HeartSteps V2V3 MRT. We present a case study using data from the HeartSteps V2V3 MRT, where we select appropriate metrics, discuss issues in making an accurate evaluation, and assess the algorithm's performance. Our evaluation shows that the algorithm performed well in meeting the two constraints. Furthermore, we identify areas for improvement and provide recommendations for designers of MRTs that need to satisfy these core design constraints.

The generalized lasso is a natural generalization of the celebrated lasso approach to handle structural regularization problems. Many important methods and applications fall into this framework, including fused lasso, clustered lasso, and constrained lasso. To elevate its effectiveness in large-scale problems, extensive research has been conducted on the computational strategies of generalized lasso. However, to our knowledge, most studies are under the linear setup, with limited advances in non-Gaussian and non-linear models. We propose a majorization-minimization dual stagewise (MM-DUST) algorithm to efficiently trace out the full solution paths of the generalized lasso problem. The majorization technique is incorporated to handle different convex loss functions through their quadratic majorizers. Utilizing the connection between primal and dual problems and the idea of ``slow-brewing'' from stagewise learning, the minimization step is carried out in the dual space through a sequence of simple coordinate-wise updates on the dual coefficients with a small step size. Consequently, selecting an appropriate step size enables a trade-off between statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. We analyze the computational complexity of MM-DUST and establish the uniform convergence of the approximated solution paths. Extensive simulation studies and applications with regularized logistic regression and Cox model demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

We consider the robust multi-dimensional scaling (RMDS) problem in this paper. The goal is to localize point locations from pairwise distances that may be corrupted by outliers. Inspired by classic MDS theories, and nonconvex works for the robust principal component analysis (RPCA) problem, we propose an alternating projection based algorithm that is further accelerated by the tangent space projection technique. For the proposed algorithm, if the outliers are sparse enough, we can establish linear convergence of the reconstructed points to the original points after centering and rotation alignment. Numerical experiments verify the state-of-the-art performances of the proposed algorithm.

One approach to estimating the average treatment effect in binary treatment with unmeasured confounding is the proximal causal inference, which assumes the availability of outcome and treatment confounding proxies. The key identifying result relies on the existence of a so-called bridge function. A parametric specification of the bridge function is usually postulated and estimated using standard techniques. The estimated bridge function is then plugged in to estimate the average treatment effect. This approach may have two efficiency losses. First, the bridge function may not be efficiently estimated since it solves an integral equation. Second, the sequential procedure may fail to account for the correlation between the two steps. This paper proposes to approximate the integral equation with increasing moment restrictions and jointly estimate the bridge function and the average treatment effect. Under sufficient conditions, we show that the proposed estimator is efficient. To assist implementation, we propose a data-driven procedure for selecting the tuning parameter (i.e., number of moment restrictions). Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well in finite samples, and application to the right heart catheterization dataset from the SUPPORT study demonstrates its practical value.

The use of non-differentiable priors is standard in modern parsimonious Bayesian models. Lack of differentiability, however, precludes gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for posterior sampling. Recently proposed proximal MCMC approaches can partially remedy this limitation. These approaches use gradients of a smooth approximation, constructed via Moreau-Yosida (MY) envelopes, to make proposals. In this work, we build an importance sampling paradigm by using the MY envelope as an importance distribution. Leveraging properties of the envelope, we establish asymptotic normality of the importance sampling estimator with an explicit expression for the asymptotic covariance matrix. Since the MY envelope density is smooth, it is amenable to gradient-based samplers. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity of Metropolis-adjusted Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms, sampling from this importance distribution. A variety of numerical studies show that the proposed scheme can yield lower variance estimators compared to existing proximal MCMC alternatives, and is effective in both low and high dimensions.

As one of the most powerful tools for examining the association between functional covariates and a response, the functional regression model has been widely adopted in various interdisciplinary studies. Usually, a limited number of functional covariates are assumed in a functional linear regression model. Nevertheless, correlations may exist between functional covariates in high-dimensional functional linear regression models, which brings significant statistical challenges to statistical inference and functional variable selection. In this article, a novel functional factor augmentation structure (fFAS) is proposed for multivariate functional series, and a multivariate functional factor augmentation selection model (fFASM) is further proposed to deal with issues arising from variable selection of correlated functional covariates. Theoretical justifications for the proposed fFAS are provided, and statistical inference results of the proposed fFASM are established. Numerical investigations support the superb performance of the novel fFASM model in terms of estimation accuracy and selection consistency.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) aim to sample from a target distribution by learning score functions using samples perturbed by Gaussian noise. Existing convergence bounds for SGMs in the $\mathcal{W}_2$-distance rely on stringent assumptions about the data distribution. In this work, we present a novel framework for analyzing $\mathcal{W}_2$-convergence in SGMs, significantly relaxing traditional assumptions such as log-concavity and score regularity. Leveraging the regularization properties of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, we show that weak log-concavity of the data distribution evolves into log-concavity over time. This transition is rigorously quantified through a PDE-based analysis of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation governing the log-density of the forward process. Moreover, we establish that the drift of the time-reversed OU process alternates between contractive and non-contractive regimes, reflecting the dynamics of concavity. Our approach circumvents the need for stringent regularity conditions on the score function and its estimators, relying instead on milder, more practical assumptions. We demonstrate the wide applicability of this framework through explicit computations on Gaussian mixture models, illustrating its versatility and potential for broader classes of data distributions.