@skells

Feel free to tag me, waste my time. If for no other reason that for me to look and go "Yup he is an idiot alright". Only reason its not worth digging deeper is I know how these people behave, I can give a detailed synopsis of all the logical fallacies and bad analysis and they will just go "muuuuhhhh math is a hoax, I dont understand math but I know its right"... just wastes my time. There is a level of idiot that cant realize they are idiots, dunning-Kruger and all that.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea the reason I tagged you is because you're the only person I know who could credibly give a detailed synopsis of the logical fallacies

whatever though

@skells

Fair well let me check it out and ill give a 3/4 assed attempt :)

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea that would be awesome

@skells

Right off the bat before even getting knee deep in this pile of sewage I already notice the entire foundation of the argument relies on total deaths... in statistics we have something called confounding and by looking at total deaths, of which covid is only a small part, you are going to drown in a sea of confounding and not really get very good analysis.

For example think of all the other things going on when you quarintine... loss of work, depression, reduced transmission of other diseases, more sex (and potentially more STDs), change in eating habits, less exercise, Confounding would be through the roof...

Let me give it a full read though.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea agreed, but again of the bat this would suggest that government policy is making things worse, not better.

throwing your hands up and screaming "it's the vaccines!" is bullshit though

@skells

Well yea thats the thing, the only thing looking at total deaths will tell you is well, how much people are dying. It tells you nothing about the causes of those deaths and is virtually useless beyond being able to say "people died from something"

@YorkshireTea

@skells

Also how do you even know that government policy is making things worse... Could be tons of factors that arent even related to govt policy... thats the thing the analysis is so poor they cant even say that much.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea there's not a lot you can say with any confidence with this data

one thing that stands out is that once excess mortality is outstripping covid mortality, it seems likely that the collective shift in government policy is doing more harm than good

@freemo @YorkshireTea what else, other than government policy, can cause such a huge shift

first, do no harm

@skells

Tons of things, and without better analysis no way to know what it is.

People could be depressed over covid killing loved ones and thus commiting suicide.

Maybe the constant fear of covid is causing depression and death.

Maybe people are so scared of covid they dont go outside and dont get exercise and are dying of bad nutrition, lack of vitamin D, or lack of exercise.

The reasons are too many to count because the data is so insanely broad.

@YorkshireTea

@skells

Yea but we cant even say what part of the numbers is even related to government policy. Like how do you know people are dying as a result of government policy and people arent just commiting suicide because they are so depressed over covid and loved ones lost or something unrelated to got policy... you cant.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea to a first approximation i think you can assert that government doubling down on lockdown measures would be thick as shit

doesn't look like that's on the cards but it's good to have some data to back it up

thanks for the feedback in any case

@skells

I do think that the government lockdowns have done more harm than good, not disagreeing with that. All I am saying is this data is absolute shit at making that case. Other data on the other hand I think could potentially make that case effectively, we just dont have that here.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea what would be your first port of call?

@skells

Depends on what your hypothesis is on how the government lockdowns cause harm. I've argued it with some data from a few angles in the past. Though keep in mind there may not be good data to resolve many hypothesis too as someone needs to collect the right data and that may not always exist.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea "never believe statistics unless you faked them yourself" ;)

@freemo @YorkshireTea I'm genuinely sceptical of how much you can demonstrate with statistics in general society, the physicist in me gets very suspicious once you have so many confounding factors

@skells

A good data scientist knows what he can prove and to what confidence level. Not every argument can be trivially proven/ A solid argument will be demonstrated from several angles with some of them doing a good job at minimizing confounding in the data. For examle if you can do a double blind test you can often eliminate confounding variables with high confidence. But you cant do double blind tests on everything.

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea interesting, thanks again freemo

@skells

anytime

@YorkshireTea

@YorkshireTea

A lot of the significantly noise. A lot of times you look intensity like that and find its fictional.

Bella palsey is super common, ive had it three times in my life. You can get it from a cold breeze. When the entire world is getting vaccinated even if it were completely unrelated youd expect lots of people to be getting bells palsey some time after being jabed.

Your anecdoctal evidence is weak as hell. You could literally describe aby random illness someone gets to the jab when virtually everyone is getting the jab

@skells

@freemo @YorkshireTea you're making less sense here than you did earlier mate, Yorkshire's experience in isolation isn't much (obviously for him it's enough to be extremely wary) but it correlates with VAERS and the other reporting systems.

@skells
Of course it correlates with vares. Vares is a list of any adverse effect someone experiences regardless of if is thought to relate to the vaccine at all or not. Vares proves my point, when everyone on the planet is getting a shot and all of them must report literally anything even if known to be unrelated them every otch, sneeze, boil, and cancer is suddenly relevant. Its literally just a lost of all the random shit that happens randomly with no correlation to the vaccine for 99% of it.
@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea so why does the distribution of reported events after the jab differ from the baseline?

@skells
Because as an emergency authorized vaccine the rules chamged such that **all** events must be reported by llaw even if its minor or unrelated. This isnt normally a strict legal requirement on reporting

@YorkshireTea

@freemo @YorkshireTea but there's not enough deaths reported on vaers for that to be true, assuming the baseline death rate and an ensemble average (I think that's the right term) of all vaccinations happening at once.

either the vaccine reduces the probability of all cause mortality by a 1/3rd (from memory) or not all adverse events are being reported.

@skells

No thats just because when someone dies the doctor doesnt always know they were vaccinated, so while they would be required to report it many slip through and dont get reported. Its rare the vaccinating doctor is also the one who pronounces you dead.

@YorkshireTea