The COVID "cure" is worse than the disease?
In the UK the numbers suggest it's beginning to look that way. Mortality statistics are hard to fudge.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-covid-cure-is-worse-than-the
@YorkshireTea @freemo interested to hear your critique of this dude, looks troubling from my perspective
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::eye roll:: anyone who thinks the vaccine is actually dangerous is already not even worth my time. You can argue it isnt effective sure, but its overwhelmingly clear it isnt remotely dangerous at this point.
Appears a very unscientific attitude, but I won't waste your time further.
Scuba looks cool tho
Feel free to tag me, waste my time. If for no other reason that for me to look and go "Yup he is an idiot alright". Only reason its not worth digging deeper is I know how these people behave, I can give a detailed synopsis of all the logical fallacies and bad analysis and they will just go "muuuuhhhh math is a hoax, I dont understand math but I know its right"... just wastes my time. There is a level of idiot that cant realize they are idiots, dunning-Kruger and all that.
@freemo @YorkshireTea the reason I tagged you is because you're the only person I know who could credibly give a detailed synopsis of the logical fallacies
whatever though
Right off the bat before even getting knee deep in this pile of sewage I already notice the entire foundation of the argument relies on total deaths... in statistics we have something called confounding and by looking at total deaths, of which covid is only a small part, you are going to drown in a sea of confounding and not really get very good analysis.
For example think of all the other things going on when you quarintine... loss of work, depression, reduced transmission of other diseases, more sex (and potentially more STDs), change in eating habits, less exercise, Confounding would be through the roof...
Let me give it a full read though.
@freemo @YorkshireTea agreed, but again of the bat this would suggest that government policy is making things worse, not better.
throwing your hands up and screaming "it's the vaccines!" is bullshit though
Well yea thats the thing, the only thing looking at total deaths will tell you is well, how much people are dying. It tells you nothing about the causes of those deaths and is virtually useless beyond being able to say "people died from something"
Also how do you even know that government policy is making things worse... Could be tons of factors that arent even related to govt policy... thats the thing the analysis is so poor they cant even say that much.
@freemo @YorkshireTea there's not a lot you can say with any confidence with this data
one thing that stands out is that once excess mortality is outstripping covid mortality, it seems likely that the collective shift in government policy is doing more harm than good
Yea but we cant even say what part of the numbers is even related to government policy. Like how do you know people are dying as a result of government policy and people arent just commiting suicide because they are so depressed over covid and loved ones lost or something unrelated to got policy... you cant.
@freemo @YorkshireTea to a first approximation i think you can assert that government doubling down on lockdown measures would be thick as shit
doesn't look like that's on the cards but it's good to have some data to back it up
thanks for the feedback in any case
I do think that the government lockdowns have done more harm than good, not disagreeing with that. All I am saying is this data is absolute shit at making that case. Other data on the other hand I think could potentially make that case effectively, we just dont have that here.
Depends on what your hypothesis is on how the government lockdowns cause harm. I've argued it with some data from a few angles in the past. Though keep in mind there may not be good data to resolve many hypothesis too as someone needs to collect the right data and that may not always exist.
@freemo @YorkshireTea "never believe statistics unless you faked them yourself" ;)
@freemo @YorkshireTea I'm genuinely sceptical of how much you can demonstrate with statistics in general society, the physicist in me gets very suspicious once you have so many confounding factors
A good data scientist knows what he can prove and to what confidence level. Not every argument can be trivially proven/ A solid argument will be demonstrated from several angles with some of them doing a good job at minimizing confounding in the data. For examle if you can do a double blind test you can often eliminate confounding variables with high confidence. But you cant do double blind tests on everything.
@freemo @YorkshireTea interesting, thanks again freemo
@freemo @YorkshireTea what would be your first port of call?