@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper Fewer gun deaths usually also means fewer deaths in general. It doesn't have to, but it does.
Obviously higher birth rate also causes more deaths :) But having a gun allows for more opportunities to intimidate and hurt people with it, opportunities that are often not available to people who's best available weapon is a kitchen knife.
It also allows for some opportunities that aren't really possible with blunt force objects and blades, such as deadly accidents and mass killings. There's very few multiple death stabbings and almost no baseball bat suicides.
And I have yet to hear a good argument for risks related to harder access to guns that isn't based on there being very easy access to guns.
Poland has 40 million people and the number of mass shootings that can be counted on one hand within the living history. The same is true for the great majority of countries. US is a special case for many reasons - lack of social safety net is a big factor in violence in general, so is the mass incarceration - but you could only makes things better if you make sure a crazy person can't easily purchase an automatic rifle.
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The data suggests otherwise from what ive seen. But if ghats the case you want to make then make it. Dont provid unrelated data that doesnt say that.
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper US has an incredibly high murder rate for its level of income. Source is mentioned.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo I know Switzerland is a favourite example, the second one being Canada, but maybe actually read up on Switzerland before you do it. Certainly not a "get an AR at the grocery store" kind of country.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo What you gave is the only example you can think of. There are no other countries like that. There are a few where hunting is popular and that makes of a significant number of guns that don't generally cause the murder rate to skyrocket. The rest has restrictive gun laws and high murder rates or a lot of guns and murders.
Why did you choose Switzerland in particular? Is it its similarity to the US? Do you think US should be required to have a purchase licence for any modern firearm!? Should there be a puchase licence requirement for ammo? What are you trying to say, exactly?
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo ok, too many typos and no edit functionality on my app or server :) But I think you get my point. I give a list of twenty countries where restrictive gun laws work. You only look at the one where there relatively lax - still much stricter than in the US, mind you. You're not looking for evidence.
Again you dont use corelation if your doing honest science on this or any topic like it...
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper None of us here are doing any science. And lack of control over sales and ownership of firearms is certainly not the only problem that contributes an abnormally high murder rate in the US.
But your insistence that the fact that anyone can buy an automatic weapon in your country has no bearing on murder rate being extremely high indicates to me that you don't really want to learn. You just want to preach.
And that's fine.
Obviously what zack said. The sale of new auto weapons have been illegal in the usa for a very long time. You can only get access to very old antique autoweapons and there are very few of them at all.
It does discredit you when you say stuff like that.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo And yet, US has hundreds of mass shootings a year, and France decidedly does not, go figure.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo I'm not, @freemo had mentioned it.
Anyway, what about tha murder rate? Is it the lack of old architecture? Maybe it's the freedom? I'm sure there must be reasons other than very easy and uncontrolled access to something that's specifically designed to kill people.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo And you go on and on about things that aren't US-specific. What is different about the US that causes you guys to murder each other much more frequently than in, say, Spain or UK?
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo CDC estimates that gang violence was responsible for 10% of overall homicides in 2020. So I think you need another excuse.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo Where are those stats then? You claim the reasons are different, and you keep moving the goalpost on that (so it's not gang violence after all?)
I'm curious to know what particular piece of data makes you so sure it's not the easy access to guns that's causing all those extra murders to happen.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo And no, I'm not skipping around, or moving the goalpost. I'm talking about the reasons for US having so many more murders than any other rich country.
I do appreciate that US has many structural problems that may cause people to turn to violence, from prolific lack of access to basic necessities of life like health care and housing, to an incredibly harmful mass incarceration system you've built, to a lack of support for getting out of poverty that plagues vast swaths of US. I get that. And that's quite unusual for a rich country and I'm sure contributes to the problem. And if you had like 50% or even 100% more murders, I could buy that argument. But the disparity is much, much larger.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo And what is the source for this assertion?
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo I still don't see any data or links.
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper Which one are you questioning? Murder rates, number of gang-related homicides, Swiss gun laws?
I didnt say i was questioning anything... but you two are both disagreeing with eachother and neither of you have provided any sort of high quality data to make either case.
So im just pointing out its kinda odd for you to complain he isnt providing data when you really havent done that yourself either.
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper So my data is unspecifically invalid, gotcha.
No it is specifically.invalid and commented multiple times in the thread why every time you attempted to share invalid data
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper Yeah, this kind of goes as expected :) Gun nuts ask for data, then they don't like the data, they have no data, and they keep believing. Well, I hope more people come to their senses, their democratic voice gets heard, and you fix your glaring problem so that gun nuts around here don't point to US and claim you're doing great despite the guns.
Sorry but you dont win science debates by seeing who can post the most intellectually dishonest links to data... not how honest scientific inquery works. The fact you think it does shows you are probably the only "nut" here. The fact you felt the need to make personally attacks to everyone who disagrees with you really proves it though
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper Sure, that's the reason you haven't provided any data. That's the reason our conversation led nowhere. Well, good luck with your safety guns.
What assertion have I made havent provided data for? I have posted the data for pretty much all my assertions in the past, at least if/when someone brought it up.
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper You have not provided data for any of those assertions:
I sure have, probably 50 times over the years, and several times this month alone (as its been a significant topic)... I've addressed both why the data and science we have is lacking (on either side of the discussion).. why its bad approach to analysis and Data for whats out there, and likewise provided data nad charts from the data we have access to...
So yes I've shared the data to that, quite often and recently.. I guess what you meant to say is you never saw or asked me for data and now are upset because I called **you** out for not having data so now your diverting the spotlight and trying to make it sound like I refuse to provide data when I actually did? Umm ok, not a good look, but ok. But yea if you want to download the data with me and do the analysis I'll be happy to go through it with you step by step. Its on my timeline but we can process the data together if you'd like as well.
Lol no my dats was actually provided and you only asked for it once **you** were called out for not providing any.. sorry buddy but doesnt work that way. Youve provided no data, you dont get to act superior by imagining you did and then calling out others who actually did provide data and pretending they didnt.
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper Whatever I could provide you'll just say that I'm wrong and you don't have to provide any proof because you did before. What would be the point?
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper But sure, here you go, a list of studies linking number of guns to homicide rates. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/
Let me guess, it doesn't prove causation, because it's a study.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo The other conclusion being that people started buying guns after all the knife shootings?
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo So your conclusion is that both gun ownership and murder rates are both caused by poverty?
@zack @freemo @pies Just (reluctantly) jumping in here to say that the level of gun violence in the United States does have multiple factors affecting it, poverty being one. Hatred and irrational fears being another. The point is, when you have any of those factors in play and you add guns, it’s like adding a match to a powder keg. (The match being the gun). Why would you do that?
I think everyone is in agreement that the violence in the usa is a multitude of factors of which any influence guns have is at best a small fraction. Of course i disagree that addi g guns is like adding a match, mutch the opposite its like untying peoples hands so they can act.
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack No, I think guns play a major role in murder rate. They're not the only factor, obviously, but they're the big one.
Then on that we agree, as I feel the evidence shows it strongly decreases the murder rate when having it present in a society with high murder rates. Though I suspect you think the opposite is true,
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack I see no evidence that a lot of guns that people in US have lowers the murder rate there. Quite the opposite. You have a lot of guns and a lot of murders.
Yes as i explained to you earlier why you were looking at the dats erroneously in the regard and how to correct it. Your incorrect approach of conflating correlation with causation from the start will usually lead to bad conclusions as it just did for you.
Woukd be happy to explore some valid analysis with you as I offered many times already. I suspect you arent arguing in good faith though.
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack But causality does require correlation, doesn't it? And US demonstrably has a lot of guns and does not have a low murder rate. There is no reason to think a lot of guns lowers murder rates. There is a reason to think the opposite.
Just because you say something lots of times doesn’t make it reflective of reality. You’d make for a really shitty scientist. Why do Oregon and Utah have fewer murders per capita than California then? Both have more guns and fewer regulations on those guns - granted Oregon does have a measure that passed but hasn’t been implemented yet. Must be the guns dropping the murder rate, right? This is basically the same logic you’ve been using the entire time. Crime rate in general - including murder - in the US dropped around the time concealed carry started being allowed in more states. Maybe you don’t understand how data works, but your 2 variable bullshit won’t cut it.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo I guess Americans are just more hateful. Thank you for making that clear :)
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo So that's also not something you're saying? Feels like you guys just don't want to talk about why Americans murder each other so much. So it's not because you want to and not because you can. What is the reason for your murder rate again?
anyone who spent any real time and is honest with themselves in America knows exactly why the american murder rate is so high... when you are there it feels like visiting an insane asylum, the mental health issues are huge there and pervasive.
@freemo @pies @zack What?? Most domestic violence murders are committed with guns. How do more guns prevent that? Or stop corrupt police who shoot totally unarmed people? Are you saying if we OK Corral it and wives had guns and ALL citizens could shoot back at bad cops it would be a safer, better world? I mean, just following your More Guns are Better in a Gun Killing Environment logic. Where and when would the shooting end?
More guns dont stop all forms of violence.. the presence of guns are preventing coubtless rapes and violent acts many before they even start as a deterrant.
So yes while you eliminate guns all your doing is eliminating some home murders with guns, replacing it with murders by other means and then adding countless new rapes and murders on top.
It shouldnt be hard to see how a murder witb a gun simply gets replaces with a murder with a knife, 2 rapings, and a strangle.
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack Is your claim that US has a significantly lower sexual assault rate as somepared to other rich countries?
No i didnt say that
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack So guns don't prevent sexual assault?
Thry do.. do i need to tell you a 10th time why correlation is not causation?
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack Guns have no effect on sexual assault?
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack It feels like you think US has the worst people in the world, and it's only the guns that make it just about bearable, except for some very worrying metrics.
@freemo @zack @pies Actually, I am not in agreement that guns are a small fraction. The fact that other countries with worse poverty and just as much hatred have exponentially less gun violence is because they have fewer guns. It’s not to say violence would go away if we had no guns. But the level of violence WOULD diminish. Just like if you gave someone a rock to attack children in a classroom, they’d do less damage compared to someone with an AR15.
You just changed what we were talking about.. your talking about "gun violence".. not the murder rate... Of **course** banning guns will make **gun** violence go down. We are talking about **all** violence, including acts of knife or other forms of violence that would have been deterred by a gun.
The old "Gun violence is lower in countries where guns are banned" (ignoring guns effect on non-gun violence) is basically the anti-vaxxer tactic of "If you make vaccines illegal we will see less vaccine deaths".. well yea, sure, of course you will, but you will also see non-vaccine related deaths skyrocket...
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack I'm not talking about gun violence but murder rate.
@freemo @MelodyCooper @zack I really don't understand how someone can say with a straight face that guns lower murder rate while living in a country that has an enormous murder rate and loads of guns. Arguing that guns don't boost murder rate is very counterintuitive to me and not in line with the stuff I've read, but it's somewhat plausible. But if guns lower murder rate how many more guns do you need to get your murder rate to a normal level? You guys have more guns than people.
@zack @MelodyCooper @freemo Do I even have to say it? US ranks nr 14 in the world in reported rape, and the only rich country that's above it is Sweden. Guns don't stop sexual assault from happening. Guns do not make a country safer at all.
How many times do people need to tell you correlation isnt causation before yiu get it?
Because correlation isnt causation. When you analyze the data using causation tests llike granger the pattern becomes clear, which is the correct way to analyze the data.
No simply injecting guns till you reach p doesnt worth, the relationship is clearly going to be nonlinear.
@freemo @zack @MelodyCooper Still the same :D No, I'm not changing the subject, I'm literally answering your question. And sure, let's say I also provided my data and sources elsewhere, so we can be done.