台灣備戰需要雙重加速: 爭取短期內購入軍備與強化軍員實戰能力.
"U.S. officials, former Taiwanese military leaders and security experts say they believe that means Taiwan needs to do more to ensure it can inflict enough damage to discourage an invading force or hold it off until the arrival of help—possibly from the U.S. After years of increases in military spending, China now has around 100 times as many ground force personnel as Taiwan and a military budget 25 times as large, according to Pentagon data."
中國武裝攻擊前,致力打擊台灣自衛信心的動機: PLA逾卌年無實戰經驗,且有印太鄰國的包圍壓力。
"Launching a full-scale amphibious incursion 130 kilometers from the mainland would be a daunting exercise, and the PLA has not had major combat experience since 1979. Beijing would risk major resistance from Taipei as well as a devastating military response from Washington. In addition, it would do grave, if not, irreparable damage to its ties with the United States and the European Union, not to mention the four militarily and economically formidable democracies it counts as neighbors: Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, it is hard to think of an action that would do more to jeopardize China’s long-term strategic prospects. It would be far less risky for Beijing to continue its present lines of efforts: increasing its bilateral military advantage across the Taiwan Strait, working to undermine Taipei’s self-confidence, and persuading Taiwan that it will eventually have to acquiesce to resolving cross-strait tensions on China’s terms."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/taiwan-at-the-nexus-of-technology-and-geopolitics/
PLA人事異動的意義:
"王秀斌過去在過去南京軍區、現東部戰區歷練,相當熟悉對台作戰;之前南部戰區司令員為海軍出身的袁譽柏,此次南部戰區又由陸軍體系王秀斌擔任司令員,推測並非要對中南半島下手,而是代表過去海軍出生的將領已完備南部戰區的海空指管制度建立,更代表中共總書記習近平推動的軍改已有第一階段成效,才會有此人事調整。
林穎佑認為,王秀彬既是懂東部戰區、又懂台海作戰的將領,由於現在共機擾台的航空器大多是從東部戰區飛來,在王秀彬上任後,南部戰區是否可能加入擾台或對台作戰的序列,值得注意。
林穎佑也提到,巨乾生出身於共軍總參謀部技術偵察部,不僅是技術(駭客)將領,更是懂「駭客思維」的人選,而戰略支援部隊就是整個共軍的資訊作戰領導,有別於可能出現外行領導內行的情況,現在由技術背景出身的軍官擔任資訊戰將領,對於提升共軍資訊人才的士氣具有一定幫助,更代表資訊作戰、信息戰未來在共軍的重要性。"
總加速師領銜催戰鼓:
"央視新聞在報導中,在習近平的中共總書記、中國國家主席、中央軍委主席3大頭銜之後,加上了過去較少出現的「軍委聯指總指揮」頭銜。同時,中共中央軍委副主席張又俠、何衛東及其餘4名軍委委員,也全數陪同習近平視察。"
總加速師親自叫陣, 看來對美開戰是沒有回頭路了:
[Now by directly accusing the U.S. of seeking containment, a term loaded with Cold War meaning, Mr. Xi appears to be associating himself more closely with nationalist rhetoric—widely used by lower-ranking officials and state media—that attacks Washington, at a time when bilateral tensions continue to simmer over trade, technology, geopolitical influence and discordant views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The English-language version of Mr. Xi’s speech reported by Xinhua didn’t refer to containment or the U.S. Instead, it quoted him telling fellow officials to “have the courage to fight as the country faces profound and complex changes in both the domestic and international landscape.”]
日本的觀察:
"就習近平本人來說,能夠奪回臺灣的話,他的歷史定位就足以與毛澤東相互匹敵;就共產黨來說,為了能夠在擁有大約9000萬名黨員之中主張其統治的正當性,統一臺灣是必經之路,無法避免。還有,在二十大的政治報告中,這次放入了5年前沒有的「決不承諾放棄使用武力」,可以看出很大的變化,因為言外之意是指5年前還可以一起和平共處。
值得注意的是中國在今年8月發表的「臺灣白皮書」(正式名稱為《臺灣問題與新時代中國統一事業》白皮書),這與22年前公布的白皮書有3點不同。一是與美國正面對決的態度濃厚;二是兩岸統一後,會讓臺灣的政治地位依循現今香港模式;最後提到民進黨是必須清除的障礙。這份白皮書的內容對臺灣是非常嚴厲的。"
"對日本而言,千萬不要讓對方有機可乘是至關緊要的,提升自衛隊的軍事能力和強化美日同盟的合作關係。重點在於加強嚇阻力,要讓中國知道「這傢伙是不好惹的」。就中國來看,美軍會不會出動是最重要的關鍵。必須擺出美日共同合作協防臺灣,一旦日本遭受攻擊就不惜一戰的覺悟之態勢。"
https://www.nippon.com/hk/in-depth/d00858/?pnum=1